Tournament scorers
P(scores ≥1 goal) — 2026 World Cup
A per-player model estimate of the probability the player scores at least one goal across the matches their country plays at the 2026 tournament. Computed from each player's recent club-level scoring rate, an expected-minutes figure derived from international caps, a position-weighted share of the team's expected goals, an opponent-defence multiplier, and the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Methodology and known v0 limitations are written up at /docs/methodology/.
2,630 players across 48 teams · snapshot 2026-05-29
Top 50 by P(scores ≥1)
50 players
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Form
- Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
- Team outlook
- Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
- P(scores ≥1)
- Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.
Full definitions in the glossary.
Each row shows the probability of scoring ≥1 over the tournament, alongside team outlook (contender tier and expected matches).
By country
Each card shows the country's top-ranked player by P(scores ≥1). Click through for the full per-country list.