Tournament scorers
P(scores ≥1 goal), 2026 World Cup The probability each player scores at least one goal across their country's tournament matches, based on club scoring rate, expected minutes, team xG share, and opponent strength. Methodology .
2,630 players across 48 teams · snapshot 2026-06-23
Top 50 by P(scores ≥1) All 50 Forwards FW 50 Midfielders MF 50 Defenders DF 50 Goalkeepers GK 50
50 players
# Player · country Pos Form Team outlook P(scores ≥1) Rank 1 Raphinha PK Brazil Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 54.9% ? Rank 2 Mikel Oyarzabal PK Spain Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 48.0% ? Rank 3 Lionel Messi PK Argentina Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Final 5.7 mp P(scores ≥1) 46.4% ? Rank 4 Memphis Depay PK Netherlands Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 45.8% ? Rank 5 Mohamed Salah PK Egypt Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 45.8% ? Rank 6 Jonathan David PK Canada Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 45.1% ? Rank 7 Erling Haaland PK Norway Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 43.8% ? Rank 8 Cristiano Ronaldo PK Portugal Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 43.1% ? Rank 9 Son Heung-min PK South Korea Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 41.8% ? Rank 10 Marcus Thuram PK France Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 40.5% ? Rank 11 Ante Budimir PK Croatia Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 37.9% ? Rank 12 Chris Wood PK New Zealand Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Long shot 3.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 37.3% ? Rank 13 James Rodríguez PK Colombia Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 36.8% ? Rank 14 Folarin Balogun PK United States Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 36.1% ? Rank 15 Harry Kane England Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 35.9% ? Rank 16 Raúl Jiménez PK Mexico Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.8 mp P(scores ≥1) 34.6% ? Rank 17 Marcus Rashford PK England Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 34.0% ? Rank 18 Jordan Ayew PK Ghana Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Knockout 3.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 32.8% ? Rank 19 Donyell Malen Netherlands Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 32.0% ? Rank 20 Gabriel Jesus Brazil Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 31.3% ? Rank 21 Franck Kessié PK Ivory Coast Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 30.6% ? Rank 22 Kevin De Bruyne PK Belgium Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 30.6% ? Rank 23 Antonio Sanabria PK Paraguay Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 30.2% ? Rank 24 Ricardo Rodriguez PK Switzerland Pos DF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.9% ? Rank 25 Yoane Wissa PK DR Congo Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Knockout 3.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.8% ? Rank 26 Niclas Füllkrug PK Germany Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.5% ? Rank 27 Lautaro Martínez Argentina Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.7 mp P(scores ≥1) 28.9% ? Rank 28 Luis Díaz Colombia Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 28.5% ? Rank 29 Amine Gouiri PK Algeria Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Knockout 4.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 28.3% ? Rank 30 Ferran Torres Spain Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 27.8% ? Rank 31 Omar Marmoush Egypt Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 27.7% ? Rank 32 Hakan Çalhanoğlu PK Turkey Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 27.4% ? Rank 33 Sofyan Amrabat PK Morocco Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.8 mp P(scores ≥1) 26.4% ? Rank 34 Lamine Yamal Spain Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 25.3% ? Rank 35 Jürgen Locadia PK Curaçao Pos FW Form — Team outlook Long shot 3.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 25.0% ? Rank 36 Daichi Kamada PK Japan Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 24.9% ? Rank 37 Marcel Sabitzer PK Austria Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 24.7% ? Rank 38 Kylian Mbappé France Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.9% ? Rank 39 Neymar Brazil Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.6% ? Rank 40 Vinícius Júnior Brazil Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.5% ? Rank 41 Nicolás González Argentina Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Final 5.7 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.1% ? Rank 42 Patrik Schick Czech Republic Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.8% ? Rank 43 Julio Enciso Paraguay Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.7% ? Rank 44 Darwin Núñez Uruguay Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook R16 4.8 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.5% ? Rank 45 Loïs Openda Belgium Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.4% ? Rank 46 Bamba Dieng Senegal Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.0% ? Rank 47 Breel Embolo Switzerland Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.0% ? Rank 48 Gabriel Martinelli Brazil Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 20.8% ? Rank 49 Lucas Cavallini Canada Pos FW Form — Team outlook R16 4.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 20.1% ? Rank 50 Leroy Sané Germany Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 20.1% ? ▸ How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1) Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count. Each row shows the probability of scoring ≥1 over the tournament, alongside team outlook (contender tier and expected matches).
By country Each card shows the country's top-ranked player by P(scores ≥1). Click through for the full per-country list.
Browse all players → Full tournament forecast → onthepitch
A research surface for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Methodology
Forecasts come from a calibrated Ensemble Elo Dixon-Coles Hierarchical Poisson /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up. Tap any abbreviation in a data table for its definition.
How the forecasts score against results (Brier log-loss calibration scoreboard .
Built 14 Jul 14:01 UTC · Day 34 of the tournament · Methodology
Sports analytics and statistical research. Model outputs are probabilities, not recommendations. Past calibration does not guarantee future accuracy. This site does not promote or facilitate gambling. Terms .