Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Buteurs du tournoi

P(marque au moins 1 but) : Coupe du Monde 2026

Une estimation par joueur de la probabilité que le joueur marque au moins un but sur l'ensemble des matchs que son pays dispute au tournoi 2026. Calculée à partir du taux de buts récent du joueur en club, d'une estimation de minutes attendues dérivée des sélections internationales, d'une part pondérée par poste des buts attendus de l'équipe, d'un multiplicateur de défense adverse et du nombre attendu de matchs WC de l'équipe issus du Monte Carlo du tableau. Méthodologie et limites connues de la v0 décrites à /docs/methodology/.

2,630 joueurs de 48 équipes · données au 2026-05-29

Top 50 par P(marque au moins 1)

50 players

#Player · countryFormTeam outlook

Rank1RaphinhaPKBrazilPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)55.3%

Rank2Jonathan DavidPKCanadaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)47.5%

Rank3Lionel MessiPKArgentinaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)46.9%

Rank4Mikel OyarzabalPKSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)46.0%

Rank5Erling HaalandPKNorwayPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%

Rank6Cristiano RonaldoPKPortugalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)44.4%

Rank7Folarin BalogunPKUnited StatesPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)43.3%

Rank8Son Heung-minPKSouth KoreaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)42.0%

Rank9Chris WoodPKNew ZealandPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)39.2%

Rank10Marcus ThuramPKFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)38.9%

Rank11Ante BudimirPKCroatiaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-84.9 mpP(scores ≥1)38.8%

Rank12James RodríguezPKColombiaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)37.4%

Rank13Raúl JiménezPKMexicoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)36.2%

Rank14Alexander Sørloth NorwayPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)34.4%

Rank15Kevin De BruynePKBelgiumPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)33.1%

Rank16Jordan AyewPKGhanaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.3 mpP(scores ≥1)32.3%

Rank17Harry Kane EnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%

Rank18Gabriel JesusBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)31.7%

Rank19Ferran Torres SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)30.9%

Rank20Ricardo RodriguezPKSwitzerlandPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)30.2%

Rank21Gonçalo Ramos PortugalPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.8%

Rank22Franck KessiéPKIvory CoastPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%

Rank23Marcus RashfordPKEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%

Rank24Yoane WissaPKDR CongoPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%

Rank25Niclas FüllkrugPKGermanyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)28.6%

Rank26Donyell Malen NetherlandsPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)28.3%

Rank27Vinícius Júnior BrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)28.0%

Rank28Ousmane Dembélé FrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)27.9%

Rank29Antonio SanabriaPKParaguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)27.8%

Rank30Amine GouiriPKAlgeriaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank31Breel Embolo SwitzerlandPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank32Sofyan AmrabatPKMoroccoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.0%

Rank33Omar Marmoush EgyptPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)26.9%

Rank34Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKTurkeyPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)26.5%

Rank35Mostafa MohamedEgyptPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.4%

Rank36Daichi KamadaPKJapanPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%

Rank37Jürgen LocadiaPKCuraçaoPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%

Rank38Luis Díaz ColombiaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%

Rank39Marcel SabitzerPKAustriaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)24.3%

Rank40Neymar BrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)24.0%

Rank41Lautaro Martínez ArgentinaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)23.3%

Rank42Ermedin Demirović Bosnia and HerzegovinaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookKnockout3.6 mpP(scores ≥1)22.8%

Rank43Boulaye DiaPKSenegalPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%

Rank44Memphis DepayPKNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%

Rank45Bamba Dieng SenegalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)21.8%

Rank46Lamine Yamal SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)21.7%

Rank47Darwin Núñez UruguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%

Rank48Cody Gakpo NetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank49Patrik Schick Czech RepublicPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank50Bradley Barcola FrancePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.5%

▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form: Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook: Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1): Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Chaque ligne indique la probabilité de marquer au moins un but sur l'ensemble du tournoi, avec les perspectives de l'équipe (niveau de prétendant et matchs attendus).