Buteurs du tournoi

P(marque au moins 1 but) : Coupe du Monde 2026

Une estimation par joueur de la probabilité que le joueur marque au moins un but sur l'ensemble des matchs que son pays dispute au tournoi 2026. Calculée à partir du taux de buts récent du joueur en club, d'une estimation de minutes attendues dérivée des sélections internationales, d'une part pondérée par poste des buts attendus de l'équipe, d'un multiplicateur de défense adverse et du nombre attendu de matchs WC de l'équipe issus du Monte Carlo du tableau. Méthodologie et limites connues de la v0 décrites à /docs/methodology/.

2,630 joueurs de 48 équipes · données au 2026-06-23

Top 50 par P(marque au moins 1)

50 players

#Player · countryFormTeam outlook

Rank1RaphinhaPKBrazilPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)54.9%

Rank2Mikel OyarzabalPKSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.6 mpP(scores ≥1)48.0%

Rank3Lionel MessiPKArgentinaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.7 mpP(scores ≥1)46.4%

Rank4Memphis DepayPKNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)45.8%

Rank5Mohamed SalahPKEgyptPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)45.8%

Rank6Jonathan DavidPKCanadaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%

Rank7Erling HaalandPKNorwayPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)43.8%

Rank8Cristiano RonaldoPKPortugalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)43.1%

Rank9Son Heung-minPKSouth KoreaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)41.8%

Rank10Marcus ThuramPKFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)40.5%

Rank11Ante BudimirPKCroatiaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)37.9%

Rank12Chris WoodPKNew ZealandPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)37.3%

Rank13James RodríguezPKColombiaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)36.8%

Rank14Folarin BalogunPKUnited StatesPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)36.1%

Rank15Harry Kane EnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)35.9%

Rank16Raúl JiménezPKMexicoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)34.6%

Rank17Marcus RashfordPKEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)34.0%

Rank18Jordan AyewPKGhanaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.3 mpP(scores ≥1)32.8%

Rank19Donyell Malen NetherlandsPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%

Rank20Gabriel JesusBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)31.3%

Rank21Franck KessiéPKIvory CoastPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)30.6%

Rank22Kevin De BruynePKBelgiumPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)30.6%

Rank23Antonio SanabriaPKParaguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)30.2%

Rank24Ricardo RodriguezPKSwitzerlandPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)29.9%

Rank25Yoane WissaPKDR CongoPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.8%

Rank26Niclas FüllkrugPKGermanyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%

Rank27Lautaro Martínez ArgentinaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.7 mpP(scores ≥1)28.9%

Rank28Luis Díaz ColombiaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)28.5%

Rank29Amine GouiriPKAlgeriaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout4.0 mpP(scores ≥1)28.3%

Rank30Ferran Torres SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.6 mpP(scores ≥1)27.8%

Rank31Omar Marmoush EgyptPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank32Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKTurkeyPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.4 mpP(scores ≥1)27.4%

Rank33Sofyan AmrabatPKMoroccoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-84.8 mpP(scores ≥1)26.4%

Rank34Lamine Yamal SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.6 mpP(scores ≥1)25.3%

Rank35Jürgen LocadiaPKCuraçaoPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.0%

Rank36Daichi KamadaPKJapanPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)24.9%

Rank37Marcel SabitzerPKAustriaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%

Rank38Kylian Mbappé FrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)23.9%

Rank39Neymar BrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)23.6%

Rank40Vinícius Júnior BrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)23.5%

Rank41Nicolás González ArgentinaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.7 mpP(scores ≥1)23.1%

Rank42Patrik Schick Czech RepublicPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)21.8%

Rank43Julio Enciso ParaguayPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)21.7%

Rank44Darwin Núñez UruguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%

Rank45Loïs OpendaBelgiumPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank46Bamba Dieng SenegalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.4 mpP(scores ≥1)21.0%

Rank47Breel Embolo SwitzerlandPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)21.0%

Rank48Gabriel Martinelli BrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)20.8%

Rank49Lucas CavalliniCanadaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.1%

Rank50Leroy Sané GermanyPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)20.1%

▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form: Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook: Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1): Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Chaque ligne indique la probabilité de marquer au moins un but sur l'ensemble du tournoi, avec les perspectives de l'équipe (niveau de prétendant et matchs attendus).