Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Brazil

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Brazil — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Brazil's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Brazil plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/bra/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

66 players in the pool

Rank1RaphinhaPKPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)55.3%
Rank2Gabriel JesusPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)31.7%
Rank3Vinícius JúniorPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)28.0%
Rank4NeymarPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)24.0%
Rank5RicharlisonPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)18.8%
Rank6Gabriel MartinelliPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)17.6%
Rank7EndrickPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)16.0%
Rank8SavinhoPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)15.5%
Rank9Luiz HenriquePosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)15.2%
Rank10AntonyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)14.8%
Rank11Matheus CunhaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)14.6%
Rank12Kaio JorgePosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)13.0%
Rank13PedroPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)10.7%
Rank14João PedroPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)9.8%
Rank15Igor JesusPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)9.6%
Rank16Igor ThiagoPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)7.7%
Rank17Samuel LinoPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)7.0%
Rank18RayanPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)6.9%
Rank19EstêvãoPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)6.2%
Rank20Vitor RoquePosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)6.2%
Rank21RodrygoPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank22Bruno GuimarãesPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.0%
Rank23GersonPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)4.9%
Rank24Andreas PereiraPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)3.8%
Rank25CasemiroPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)3.4%
Rank26JoelintonPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank27ÉdersonPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank28João GomesPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.2%
Rank29Matheus PereiraPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank30Jean LucasPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.9%
Rank31Andrey SantosPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank32FabinhoPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank33Lucas PaquetáPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank34Danilo SantosPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank35Gabriel MagalhãesPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank36Gabriel SaraPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank37Danilo LuizPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank38VandersonPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank39MarquinhosPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank40AndréPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank41Thiago SilvaPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank42Roger IbañezPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank43Alex SandroPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank44Douglas SantosPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank45Fabrício BrunoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank46WesleyPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank47Lucas BeraldoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank48Éder MilitãoPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank49BremerPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank50AlexsandroPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank51Carlos AugustoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank52Léo OrtizPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank53Léo PereiraPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank54Paulo HenriquePosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank55VitinhoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank56KaikiPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank57Luciano JubaPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank58Vitor ReisPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank59Caio HenriquePosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank60AlissonPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank61BentoPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank62EdersonPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank63Hugo SouzaPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank64JohnPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank65John VictorPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank66WevertonPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.