Notes
Posts
Probability research, model snapshots, and short notes on WC2026.
30 May 2026
France will have six players in the final — on both benches
Six France internationals start tonight's Champions League final, five for PSG and one for Arsenal — Ousmane Dembélé against William Saliba, club rivals who become teammates in 12 days. The model has France 9% to win the World Cup, and rates Dembélé its #28 tournament scorer.
#france#world-cup#ucl#psg
30 May 2026
Portugal's World Cup spine plays the Champions League final tonight
Four of PSG's starters in tonight's Champions League final — Vitinha, João Neves, Nuno Mendes and Gonçalo Ramos — are bound for Portugal at the World Cup. The model gives Portugal a 7.9% chance to win the tournament, and rates Gonçalo Ramos its #21 tournament scorer.
#portugal#world-cup#ucl#psg
30 May 2026
PSG vs Arsenal: what the model sees in the Champions League final
Our club-football model makes Arsenal clear favourites in tonight's Champions League final — 54% to win, 25% draw, 21% PSG — on a ClubElo advantage of nearly 100 points and an expected-goals split of 1.73 to 0.98. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, but the distribution tilts firmly to Arsenal.
#ucl#champions-league#psg#arsenal
29 May 2026
Morgan Gibbs-White had the best season of his life. So why was he left behind?
Morgan Gibbs-White had the best season of his life — 15 goals, Forest's top scorer, a European semi-final — and England still left him behind. The outrage went to Palmer and Foden instead, both off down years. Our model rates Gibbs-White ninth among England-eligible players, and of everyone left out, his is the case that's hardest to argue with.
#england#squad#omissions#gibbs-white
28 May 2026
Model notes — how onthepitch predicts the 2026 World Cup
A complete reference for the prediction system behind onthepitch. Three component models (Elo, Dixon-Coles, Hierarchical Poisson), a calibrated ensemble, and a Monte Carlo bracket simulator. Every parameter, every design choice, every backtest number — in one place.
#methodology#model#ensemble#calibration
28 May 2026
Eight Barcelona players in Spain's squad — what club concentration means at a World Cup
Spain's 2026 World Cup squad has eight Barcelona players out of 26 — among the heaviest single-club blocs in the 48-team field, and the largest from a Champions League club. Players who share a club share passing patterns, spatial habits, and a tactical language that doesn't need to be rebuilt in a two-week camp. Our model rates Spain as the tournament's most likely winner at 16.9%.
#spain#world-cup-2026#squad#squad-cohesion
28 May 2026
The USA is the underdog in every group match at their own World Cup
Group D is the most competitive group at the 2026 World Cup by a massive margin. Our model gives the USA just a 73.5% chance of advancing — the lowest of any host nation — and rates them as the underdog in all three group matches. No other group in the 48-team field comes close to this level of uncertainty.
#usa#world-cup-2026#group-d#turkey