Live forecast
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0Who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Win probabilities for every match and every path to the final. Every forecast graded against the real result.
- Powered by 100,000 simulations per forecast
- Updated every match day
- Graded after every result
- Method published in full
- Free to read
15
perfect calls
54%
of calls rated strong or above
82%
of winners correctly called
In 34 matches with a clear winner, the model picked the right side 28 times
0
missed calls
Across 48 matches, the model was never completely wrong about a result
Scorecard
How the forecasts are doingWithin expectations
Locked before kickoff, graded after the whistle.
Rated at 69% when markets had 62%
Beats marketsRated at 61% when markets had 57%
Beats marketsRated at 69% when markets had 66%
Beats marketsRated the result at just 10%
- Grading
- Grading
- Grading
- Grading
48 of 54 matches graded
Netherlands and Ivory Coast seek knockout spots as USA face a tough test against Turkey.
Model’s view: The model's view of hosts USA as underdogs against Turkey (30.8% vs 43.5%) is the day's most notable projection.
Today's matches
Wed 24 Jun
6 matches- Mexico3–0Czech RepublicMexico CityFull-time
- South Africa1–0South KoreaGuadalupeFull-time
- Canada1–2SwitzerlandVancouverFull-time
- Bosnia and Herzegovina3–1QatarSeattleFull-time
- Brazil3–0ScotlandMiami GardensFull-time
- Morocco4–2HaitiAtlantaFull-time
Coming up next
Thu 25 Jun
5 matches- Thu 25 JunUnited StatesvTurkey19:00 local · InglewoodStandard Pass for probabilities · 24h money-back
- ParaguayvAustralia19:00 local · Santa ClaraStandard Pass for probabilities · 24h money-back
- GermanyvEcuador16:00 local · East RutherfordStandard Pass for probabilities · 24h money-back
- CuraçaovIvory Coast16:00 local · PhiladelphiaStandard Pass for probabilities · 24h money-back
- NetherlandsvTunisia18:00 local · Kansas CityStandard Pass for probabilities · 24h money-back
Featured
Every player rated, every substitute mapped: deep match visualization is live
Every fixture page now has a deep interactive visualization: starting XIs, scoring threat, player ratings, defensive shape, synergy lines, and squad-depth analysis. Click any player, swap them for their real bench alternative, and watch the model recalculate. France's most irreplaceable player is not Mbappe. Argentina get better when Otamendi sits. The numbers are all here.
Top contenders · model probability
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Standard Pass: $10 through the end of group stage
The group stage wraps up this week. Before the knockouts begin, we're dropping the Standard Pass to $10 (from $15). Every match forecast, every pre-match probability, every post-match scorecard, for less than 10 cents a game. The price goes back up when the Round of 32 kicks off.
June 23: Messi makes history, Mbappe makes it rain
Lionel Messi scored both goals against Austria to reach 18 career World Cup goals, the most by any player in the history of the tournament. France beat Iraq 3-0 through a thunderstorm delay in Philadelphia, Mbappe twice, and qualified alongside Norway, who edged Senegal 3-2 in a Haaland brace. The model went three from four on direction (mean Brier 0.267), missing only the Norway-Senegal swing it had rated near even. Now Groups K and L: Portugal need a win, England face Ghana with the widest quality gap of the day, and Croatia vs Panama is a must-win for a former finalist.
June 22: Spain answers, Egypt arrives
Spain put four past Saudi Arabia in half an hour. The model's best single-match score of the tournament: Brier 0.039. Egypt came back from 1-0 down at the break to beat New Zealand 3-1, their first World Cup win in history. Salah scored. And the draw groups held form: Belgium drew again (0-0 Iran, red card, 23 shots, nothing), Cape Verde drew again (2-2 Uruguay, another comeback). Six draws from eight matches in Groups G and H. Now Groups I and J arrive: Argentina vs Austria for the table, France vs Iraq, Senegal's must-win against Norway, and Algeria vs Jordan where the loser is all but out.
We grade every prediction we publish. Here's the scorecard.
36 matches graded. 18 strong calls. 6 outright misses. The model's mean Brier is 0.598, markets are at 0.569. We built a page that holds us accountable in real time: every match gets a letter grade, the running mean updates daily, and the misses sit right next to the best calls. No hiding.
June 21: the draw groups
Sweden scored five on Matchday 1. Netherlands scored five on Matchday 2. The preview reel said 'still underdogs' and the model was right. Meanwhile Curacao held 82% Ecuador to 0-0, the model's worst single-match miss. Now Groups G and H arrive: four matches, four draws, zero wins on Matchday 1. Spain drew 0-0 with Cape Verde and dropped three percentage points. The model barely moved.
Do teams try harder in must-win games? (No, actually)
We classified 830 group-stage matches across 23 major tournaments by incentive state (must-win, dead rubber, draw-enough) and tested whether outcomes deviate from the baseline model. The apparent signal disappeared entirely once we controlled for a simple confounder: matchday. The dead rubbers were actually easier to predict, not harder.
Around the World Cup
Headlines link out to their source. Model moves are changes between our own probability snapshots.
Last 34 days
Biggest probability moves
Compared to model run 34 days ago (2026-05-21).
Reach semi-final
New result46.9% → 35.8%
Reach round of 16
New result80.3% → 69.8%
Reach quarter-final
New result61.3% → 52.3%
Reach quarter-final
New result47.5% → 38.5%
Reach semi-final
New result46.4% → 37.6%
Reach quarter-final
New result56.8% → 48.1%
Tags show the likely driver — a new result, a model update, or knock-on redistribution — not a proven cause.
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Every probability is published before kickoff and scored after the result. Full methodology in the open.
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