Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Australia

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Australia — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Australia's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Australia plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/aus/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

62 players in the pool

Rank1Brandon BorrelloPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)15.7%
Rank2Mitch DukePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)12.4%
Rank3Martin BoylePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)11.5%
Rank4Nestory IrankundaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)11.1%
Rank5Mohamed TouréPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)10.6%
Rank6Craig GoodwinPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)10.2%
Rank7Nishan VelupillayPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)8.0%
Rank8Samuel SilveraPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)8.0%
Rank9Awer MabilPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)7.0%
Rank10Marco TilioPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)6.6%
Rank11Adam TaggartPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)6.1%
Rank12Deni JurićPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)6.1%
Rank13Nicolas MilanovićPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)6.1%
Rank14Adrian SegečićPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank15Al Hassan TouréPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank16Ante ŠutoPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank17Daniel ArzaniPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank18Kusini YengiPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank19Nicholas D'AgostinoPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank20Noah BotićPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank21Jackson IrvinePosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)3.4%
Rank22Ajdin HrustićPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)3.1%
Rank23Connor MetcalfePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)2.6%
Rank24Aiden O'NeillPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank25Riley McGreePosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank26Patrick YazbekPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank27Keanu BaccusPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank28Max BalardPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)1.5%
Rank29Anthony CaceresPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank30Cameron DevlinPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank31Paul Okon-EngstlerPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank32Ryan TeaguePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank33Alex RobertsonPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank34Adrian SegečićPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank35Anthony KalikPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank36Jason DavidsonPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank37Cameron BurgessPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank38Jason GeriaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank39Aziz BehichPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank40Jordan BosPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank41Kye RowlesPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank42Miloš DegenekPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank43Alex GersbachPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank44Ryan StrainPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank45Kai TrewinPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank46Jacob ItalianoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank47Lucas HerringtonPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank48Fran KaračićPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank49Alessandro CircatiPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank50Hayden MatthewsPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank51Alex BonetigPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank52Callum ElderPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank53Jack IredalePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank54James OveryPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank55Kasey BosPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank56Lewis MillerPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank57Sebastian EspositoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank58Joe GauciPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank59Mathew RyanPosGKFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank60Patrick BeachPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank61Paul IzzoPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank62Tom GloverPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.