Home · Tournament scorers · Croatia Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
Tournament scorers · Croatia
Snapshot · 2026-05-29 Croatia — P(scores ≥1 goal) Every player in Croatia's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Croatia plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/cro/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.
37 players in the pool # Player Pos Form Team outlook P(scores ≥1) Rank 1 Ante Budimir PK Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 38.8% ? Rank 2 Andrej Kramarić Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 17.5% ? Rank 3 Petar Musa Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 11.4% ? Rank 4 Franjo Ivanović Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 9.5% ?
Rank 5 Igor Matanović Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 9.0% ? Rank 6 Mario Pašalić Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 7.1% ? Rank 7 Dion Drena Beljo Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 6.9% ?
Rank 8 Mislav Oršić Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 6.0% ?
Rank 9 Marco Pašalić Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.6% ? Rank 10 Ivan Perišić Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ? Rank 11 Luka Sučić Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 4.0% ? Rank 12 Lovro Majer Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.4% ?
Rank 13 Luka Modrić Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.8% ? Rank 14 Mateo Kovačić Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.3% ? Rank 15 Martin Baturina Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.1% ? Rank 16 Petar Sučić Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.1% ? Rank 17 Nikola Vlašić Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.6% ? Rank 18 Toni Fruk Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.5% ? Rank 19 Joško Gvardiol Pos DF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.4% ? Rank 20 Nikola Moro Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.3% ? Rank 21 Kristijan Jakić Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.0% ? Rank 22 Luka Stojković Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 1.0% ?
Rank 23 Duje Ćaleta-Car Pos DF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.7% ? Rank 24 Josip Šutalo Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.6% ? Rank 25 Luka Vušković Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 26 Ivan Smolčić Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ?
Rank 27 Josip Juranović Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ?
Rank 28 Josip Stanišić Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ? Rank 29 Martin Erlić Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ? Rank 30 Borna Sosa Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ?
Rank 31 Domagoj Bradarić Pos DF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.2% ?
Rank 32 Marin Pongračić Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.1% ? Rank 33 Dominik Kotarski Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 34 Dominik Livaković Pos GK Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 35 Ivica Ivušić Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
Rank 36 Ivor Pandur Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 37 Karlo Letica Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-8 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
▸ How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1) Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count. Full definitions in the glossary .
How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.
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A research surface for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Sports analytics and statistical research. Model outputs are probabilities of sporting outcomes derived from public data, published as research and analysis for analysts, journalists, fantasy players, and developers. Editorial scope is limited to the model's own probabilities, the methodology behind them, and the calibration of the two against observed results. Use of this site is subject to our Terms .