토너먼트 득점자

P(1골 이상 득점) — 2026 월드컵

2026 대회에서 해당 국가가 치르는 경기 전체에 걸쳐 선수가 1골 이상 넣을 확률의 선수별 모델 추정치입니다. 각 선수의 최근 클럽 수준 득점률, 국가대표 출전에서 도출된 예상 출전 시간, 팀 기대 골의 포지션 가중 비중, 상대 수비 배수, 브래킷 몬테 카를로에서의 팀 예상 월드컵 경기 수로 산출됩니다. 방법론 및 알려진 v0 한계는 /docs/methodology/에 기재되어 있습니다.

48개 팀 2,630명 선수 · 스냅샷 2026-06-23

P(1골 이상) 상위 50명

50 players

#Player · countryFormTeam outlook

Rank1RaphinhaPKBrazilPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)54.9%

Rank2Mikel OyarzabalPKSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.6 mpP(scores ≥1)48.0%

Rank3Lionel MessiPKArgentinaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.7 mpP(scores ≥1)46.4%

Rank4Memphis DepayPKNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)45.8%

Rank5Mohamed SalahPKEgyptPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)45.8%

Rank6Jonathan DavidPKCanadaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%

Rank7Erling HaalandPKNorwayPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)43.8%

Rank8Cristiano RonaldoPKPortugalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)43.1%

Rank9Son Heung-minPKSouth KoreaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)41.8%

Rank10Marcus ThuramPKFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)40.5%

Rank11Ante BudimirPKCroatiaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)37.9%

Rank12Chris WoodPKNew ZealandPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)37.3%

Rank13James RodríguezPKColombiaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)36.8%

Rank14Folarin BalogunPKUnited StatesPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)36.1%

Rank15Harry Kane EnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)35.9%

Rank16Raúl JiménezPKMexicoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)34.6%

Rank17Marcus RashfordPKEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.3 mpP(scores ≥1)34.0%

Rank18Jordan AyewPKGhanaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.3 mpP(scores ≥1)32.8%

Rank19Donyell Malen NetherlandsPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%

Rank20Gabriel JesusBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)31.3%

Rank21Franck KessiéPKIvory CoastPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)30.6%

Rank22Kevin De BruynePKBelgiumPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)30.6%

Rank23Antonio SanabriaPKParaguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)30.2%

Rank24Ricardo RodriguezPKSwitzerlandPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)29.9%

Rank25Yoane WissaPKDR CongoPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.8%

Rank26Niclas FüllkrugPKGermanyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%

Rank27Lautaro Martínez ArgentinaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.7 mpP(scores ≥1)28.9%

Rank28Luis Díaz ColombiaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)28.5%

Rank29Amine GouiriPKAlgeriaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout4.0 mpP(scores ≥1)28.3%

Rank30Ferran Torres SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.6 mpP(scores ≥1)27.8%

Rank31Omar Marmoush EgyptPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank32Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKTurkeyPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.4 mpP(scores ≥1)27.4%

Rank33Sofyan AmrabatPKMoroccoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-84.8 mpP(scores ≥1)26.4%

Rank34Lamine Yamal SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.6 mpP(scores ≥1)25.3%

Rank35Jürgen LocadiaPKCuraçaoPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.0%

Rank36Daichi KamadaPKJapanPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)24.9%

Rank37Marcel SabitzerPKAustriaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%

Rank38Kylian Mbappé FrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)23.9%

Rank39Neymar BrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)23.6%

Rank40Vinícius Júnior BrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)23.5%

Rank41Nicolás González ArgentinaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.7 mpP(scores ≥1)23.1%

Rank42Patrik Schick Czech RepublicPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)21.8%

Rank43Julio Enciso ParaguayPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.2 mpP(scores ≥1)21.7%

Rank44Darwin Núñez UruguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%

Rank45Loïs OpendaBelgiumPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.1 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank46Bamba Dieng SenegalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.4 mpP(scores ≥1)21.0%

Rank47Breel Embolo SwitzerlandPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)21.0%

Rank48Gabriel Martinelli BrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.5 mpP(scores ≥1)20.8%

Rank49Lucas CavalliniCanadaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.1%

Rank50Leroy Sané GermanyPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)20.1%

▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form: Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook: Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1): Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

각 행은 대회 전체에 걸쳐 1골 이상 득점할 확률과 팀 전망(경쟁 등급 및 예상 경기 수)을 보여줍니다.