Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

토너먼트 득점자

P(1골 이상 득점) — 2026 월드컵

2026 대회에서 해당 국가가 치르는 경기 전체에 걸쳐 선수가 1골 이상 넣을 확률의 선수별 모델 추정치입니다. 각 선수의 최근 클럽 수준 득점률, 국가대표 출전에서 도출된 예상 출전 시간, 팀 기대 골의 포지션 가중 비중, 상대 수비 배수, 브래킷 몬테 카를로에서의 팀 예상 월드컵 경기 수로 산출됩니다. 방법론 및 알려진 v0 한계는 /docs/methodology/에 기재되어 있습니다.

48개 팀 2,630명 선수 · 스냅샷 2026-05-29

P(1골 이상) 상위 50명

50 players

#Player · countryFormTeam outlook

Rank1RaphinhaPKBrazilPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)55.3%

Rank2Jonathan DavidPKCanadaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)47.5%

Rank3Lionel MessiPKArgentinaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)46.9%

Rank4Mikel OyarzabalPKSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)46.0%

Rank5Erling HaalandPKNorwayPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%

Rank6Cristiano RonaldoPKPortugalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)44.4%

Rank7Folarin BalogunPKUnited StatesPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)43.3%

Rank8Son Heung-minPKSouth KoreaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)42.0%

Rank9Chris WoodPKNew ZealandPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)39.2%

Rank10Marcus ThuramPKFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)38.9%

Rank11Ante BudimirPKCroatiaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-84.9 mpP(scores ≥1)38.8%

Rank12James RodríguezPKColombiaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)37.4%

Rank13Raúl JiménezPKMexicoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)36.2%

Rank14Alexander Sørloth NorwayPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)34.4%

Rank15Kevin De BruynePKBelgiumPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)33.1%

Rank16Jordan AyewPKGhanaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.3 mpP(scores ≥1)32.3%

Rank17Harry Kane EnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%

Rank18Gabriel JesusBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)31.7%

Rank19Ferran Torres SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)30.9%

Rank20Ricardo RodriguezPKSwitzerlandPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)30.2%

Rank21Gonçalo Ramos PortugalPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.8%

Rank22Franck KessiéPKIvory CoastPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%

Rank23Marcus RashfordPKEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%

Rank24Yoane WissaPKDR CongoPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%

Rank25Niclas FüllkrugPKGermanyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)28.6%

Rank26Donyell Malen NetherlandsPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)28.3%

Rank27Vinícius Júnior BrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)28.0%

Rank28Ousmane Dembélé FrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)27.9%

Rank29Antonio SanabriaPKParaguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)27.8%

Rank30Amine GouiriPKAlgeriaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank31Breel Embolo SwitzerlandPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank32Sofyan AmrabatPKMoroccoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.0%

Rank33Omar Marmoush EgyptPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)26.9%

Rank34Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKTurkeyPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)26.5%

Rank35Mostafa MohamedEgyptPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.4%

Rank36Daichi KamadaPKJapanPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%

Rank37Jürgen LocadiaPKCuraçaoPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%

Rank38Luis Díaz ColombiaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%

Rank39Marcel SabitzerPKAustriaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)24.3%

Rank40Neymar BrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)24.0%

Rank41Lautaro Martínez ArgentinaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)23.3%

Rank42Ermedin Demirović Bosnia and HerzegovinaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookKnockout3.6 mpP(scores ≥1)22.8%

Rank43Boulaye DiaPKSenegalPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%

Rank44Memphis DepayPKNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%

Rank45Bamba Dieng SenegalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)21.8%

Rank46Lamine Yamal SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)21.7%

Rank47Darwin Núñez UruguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%

Rank48Cody Gakpo NetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank49Patrik Schick Czech RepublicPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank50Bradley Barcola FrancePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.5%

▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form: Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook: Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1): Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

각 행은 대회 전체에 걸쳐 1골 이상 득점할 확률과 팀 전망(경쟁 등급 및 예상 경기 수)을 보여줍니다.