Most likely to lift the trophy
Top 4 by tournament probability
Live forecast
Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0The full 2026 World Cup forecast
Every grid the model produces: projected line-ups, group-winner probabilities, the knockout outlook and the tournament-winner table.
New · Free preview
Mexico vs South Africa: full forecast, free
See the model's complete match forecast for the World Cup opener: win/draw/win, expected goals, most likely scorelines, and projected scorers. Free to read, no sign-in.
See the free forecast →
New · For developers
The model, over MCP
Connect an AI agent or app straight to the forecast through our hosted MCP server: probabilities, fixtures, squads and more. Free tier included.
Get programmatic access →
Model vs prediction markets
Full report card →Model Brier0.497
Market Brier0.564
Model ahead by 0.066Head-to-head: 19–21 across 40 matches
Biggest win: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–4 Switzerland (+7pp on the result)40 matches graded. Brier score: lower is better (0 perfect, 0.667 uniform guess). Market prices from Polymarket pre-kickoff snapshots.
Tournament outlook
Favourites
Tournament
LIVE
The 2026 World Cup is underway
Favourite
Spain
17.2%
About 1 in 6
See full profile →
Tightest race
United States vs Turkey
Group D — just 10.3pp apart
35% vs 24% to top the group
See group page →
Closest match
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia
H 34%D 34%A 33%
The closest H/A split in the group stage
Open match forecast →
Latest research and posts
Recent posts and foundational methodology notes.
Post1 Jul 2026
July 1: France demolish Sweden, Haaland rescues Norway, Mexico end a 40-year drought
R32 Day 3 delivered three comfortable results after Day 2's chaos. France dismantled Sweden 3-0 (Mbappe 45', 74', Barcola 53'), giving Mbappe 9 World Cup knockout goals, a new all-time record. Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 thanks to Haaland's 86th-minute winner, Norway's first-ever World Cup knockout win. Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0 at the Azteca for their first knockout victory in 40 years. The model called France (9.1%) and Norway (0.9%) correctly. Mexico (0.4%) was the miss: a near coin-flip the model gave to Ecuador.
Post30 Jun 2026
June 30: Paraguay eliminate Germany, Martinelli rescues Brazil, Morocco outlast the Netherlands
Three Round of 32 matches, two penalty shootouts, one 96th-minute winner. Paraguay, who lost 1-4 to the USA in the group stage and scored just 2 goals in 3 matches, knocked out four-time champions Germany on penalties (1-1, 4-3 pens). Brazil survived Japan thanks to Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time winner (2-1). Morocco equalized in the 91st minute against the Netherlands and won in a shootout (1-1, 3-2 pens). The model favoured Germany (4.8%) and had Brazil as marginal favourites (13.3%). It called Brazil correctly. Germany was the tournament's biggest R32 miss so far.
Post29 Jun 2026
Four models are better than three
The ensemble just got a fourth model. A small neural network that learns team-vs-team interactions the linear models miss. It passed an 8-fold backtest, improving the ensemble's calibration by 0.74 percentage points and its Brier score by 16 basis points. Here is what it is, why it works, and what it cost to get right.
Post29 Jun 2026
June 29: Brazil face Japan, Germany meet Paraguay
The knockout round opened last night: Canada 1-0 South Africa, Eustaquio in the 92nd minute, the model's first knockout call correct at 50.9%. Today brings Brazil vs Japan at NRG Stadium in Houston (model: 49.5% vs 22.9%, Elo gap 64) and Germany vs Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in Boston (52.5% vs 19.9%, Elo gap 103). Brazil's high press meets Japan's low block. Germany enter on a loss to Ecuador. Paraguay qualified with just 2 goals in 3 matches. If it goes to penalties, Germany's record (6 of 7 shootouts won) is the best of any remaining team.
Post28 Jun 2026
Group stage scorecard: grading all 72 predictions
The group stage is done and every prediction is on the record. Across 72 matches, the model averaged a Brier score of 0.516, with 57% of predictions graded A or A+. Group I (France's group) and Group J (Argentina's group) were the easiest to read. Group H (Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde) was the hardest, anchored by the Spain 0-0 Cape Verde opener. Here is the full scorecard, group by group.
Post28 Jun 2026
Path to the final: every team's bracket mapped
The knockout bracket is set. We traced every team's path from the Round of 32 through to the final. Argentina's route to the title match could avoid every top-10 side until the semifinal. Austria's path runs through Spain, Portugal, and France before a potential final against Argentina. The bracket halves are wildly unbalanced: five of the eight highest-rated teams are crammed into the top half, guaranteeing a bloodbath. Here is the full map.
Research
How match previews work
Every fixture page on the site opens with a detailed match preview — predicted formations, key players, strategic factors, and expected scorelines. Here's how we generate them and what data feeds into
Research
How our 2026 World Cup prediction model works
Our 2026 FIFA World Cup forecasts come from a statistical prediction model that blends three approaches — an Elo rating system, a Dixon-Coles Poisson goals model, and a hierarchical Poisson model — in
Research
How We Rate Team Strength
How do we figure out which teams are strongest and most likely to win any given match? Our model considers two main approaches. **Goal-based models** simulate how many goals each side will score, then
All posts →All methodology docs →
Predicted line-ups
The 8 nations the model rates highest to win the tournament. Click any card for the full squad.
See all 48 nations →Browse all players →
Spain leads the field at 17.2%, narrowly ahead of Argentina (15.9%)
Round-by-round favourites and the model's tournament-winner probabilities.
Likely quarter-finalists
Top 8 by tournament probability
Likely group-stage qualifiers
Top 2 from each group by group-stage probability (24 of 48)
Per-round Monte Carlo reach-probabilities are a follow-up — the figures above are the model's tournament-winner and group-winner probabilities used as a proxy ordering.
Who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Top 12 · model probabilityView the full knockout bracket →
Storylines to watch
Three narrative angles per top-predicted team: injuries, projected scorers, squad experience.
Club core
8 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Barcelona — a single-club spine on the international side.
Club xG
Squad averages 1.85 xG per match across club football last season — #3 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (23 of 26 players matched to a known club).
TouchlineLionel Scaloni
Defending champion — Winner 2022.
Last danceLionel Messi
38 at kickoff with 198 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Top scorerGabriel Jesus
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #4 of all players.
Teen starterEndrick
19 at kickoff — 15 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Out injuredKylian Mbappé
Torn muscle fiber, no expected return. Composite 0.99 — would have been a likely starter.
TouchlineDidier Deschamps
Defending champion — Winner 2022.
Last danceCristiano Ronaldo
41 at kickoff with 226 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Top scorerGonçalo Ramos
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 30% probability of scoring at least once, rank #6 of all players.
Out injuredTino Livramento
Thigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.94 — would have been a likely starter.
Defensive form
Conceded only 0.44 xG per match across 11 recent internationals — #2 of 35 in the field for defensive solidity.
Out injuredFlorian Wirtz
Stomach problems, no expected return. Composite 0.98 — would have been a likely starter.
Veteran #1wp-manuel-neuer-1986-03-27
40 at kickoff with 124 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
Strong in goalDavid Ospina
#1 starting-GK rating in the field — 1.00 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
Dead-ballJames Rodríguez
Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.
Group D is the tightest race — United States at 35%, Turkey at 24%
Probability each team wins their group.
UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ host nation
Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.