Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Sweden

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Sweden — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Sweden's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Sweden plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/swe/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

49 players in the pool

Rank1Alexander IsakPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)18.3%
Rank2Emil ForsbergPKPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)16.4%
Rank3Viktor GyökeresPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)9.5%
Rank4Benjamin NygrenPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)9.3%
Rank5Gustaf NilssonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)8.8%
Rank6Benjamin NygrenPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)7.9%
Rank7Anthony ElangaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)7.3%
Rank8Alexander BernhardssonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)6.8%
Rank9Isac LidbergPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.5%
Rank10Roony BardghjiPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.5%
Rank11Niclas EliassonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.0%
Rank12Taha AliPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.9%
Rank13Jordan LarssonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.7%
Rank14Taha AliPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.7%
Rank15Momodou SonkoPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.3%
Rank16Mattias SvanbergPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.9%
Rank17Sebastian NanasiPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank18Yasin AyariPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank19Anton SalétrosPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank20Jesper KarlströmPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank21Ken SemaPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank22Hugo LarssonPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank23Lucas BergvallPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank24Hugo BolinPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank25Williot SwedbergPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank26Besfort ZeneliPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank27Gustav LundgrenPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank28Gabriel GudmundssonPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank29Daniel SvenssonPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank30Emil HolmPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank31Victor LindelöfPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank32Carl StarfeltPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank33Gustaf LagerbielkePosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank34Isak HienPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank35Hjalmar EkdalPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank36Herman JohanssonPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank37Samuel DahlPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank38Victor ErikssonPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank39Axel NorénPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank40Elliot StroudPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank41Eric SmithPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank42John MellbergPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank43Emil KrafthPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank44Jacob Widell ZetterströmPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank45Kristoffer NordfeldtPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank46Melker EllborgPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank47Noel TörnqvistPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank48Robin OlsenPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank49Viktor JohanssonPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.