Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Canada

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Canada ★ — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Canada's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Canada plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/can/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

78 players in the pool

Rank1Jonathan DavidPKPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)47.5%
Rank2Lucas CavalliniPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)20.2%
Rank3Cyle LarinPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)14.2%
Rank4Tani OluwaseyiPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)13.9%
Rank5Promise DavidPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)8.9%
Rank6Daniel JebbisonPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)8.5%
Rank7Theo BairPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)7.7%
Rank8Jacen Russell-RowePosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)7.4%
Rank9Stephen AfrifaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)6.6%
Rank10Charles-Andreas BrymPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)6.2%
Rank11Kwasi PokuPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)6.2%
Rank12Aribim PepplePosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank13Deandre KerrPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank14Dieu-Merci MichelPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank15Gabriele BiancheriPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank16Kimani Stewart-BaynesPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank17Marius AiyeneroPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank18Santiago LópezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank19Theo CorbeanuPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank20Tiago CoimbraPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank21Mark-Anthony KayePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)3.7%
Rank22Jacob ShaffelburgPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.6%
Rank23Tajon BuchananPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank24Ismaël KonéPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank25Mathieu ChoinièrePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank26Ali AhmedPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank27Stephen EustáquioPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank28Jonathan OsorioPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.2%
Rank29Junior HoilettPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.2%
Rank30Liam MillarPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank31Jayden NelsonPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.5%
Rank32Marcelo FloresPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank33Samuel PiettePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank34Harry PatonPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank35Victor LoturiPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank36Jeevan BadwalPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank37Justin SmithPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank38Kosi ThompsonPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank39Malik HenryPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank40Nathan SalibaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank41Shola JimohPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank42Alistair JohnstonPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank43Alistair Johnston TRPPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank44Alphonso DaviesPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank45Moïse BombitoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank46Derek CorneliusPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank47Scott KennedyPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank48Niko SigurPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank49Joel WatermanPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank50Kamal MillerPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank51Luc de FougerollesPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank52Zachary Brault-GuillardPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank53Raheem EdwardsPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank54Zorhan BassongPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank55Jamie Knight-LebelPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank56Sam AdekugbePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank57Dominick ZatorPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank58Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank59Kyle HiebertPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank60Alfie JonesPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank61Jovan IvanisevicPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank62Lazar StefanovicPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank63Luca PetrassoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank64Matteo de BriennePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank65Moïse Bombito TRPPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank66Noah AbatnehPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank67Ralph PrisoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank68Richie LaryeaPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank69Zac McGrawPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank70Dayne St. ClairPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank71Grégoire ŚwiderskiPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank72James PantemisPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank73Jayden HibbertPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank74Jonathan SiroisPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank75Luka GavranPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank76Maxime CrépeauPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank77Owen GoodmanPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank78Tom McGillPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.