Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Scotland

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Scotland — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Scotland's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Scotland plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/sco/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

42 players in the pool

Rank1Ché AdamsPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)9.9%
Rank2Lyndon DykesPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)8.7%
Rank3George HirstPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)7.8%
Rank4Lawrence ShanklandPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)7.3%
Rank5Tommy ConwayPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)7.0%
Rank6Scott McTominayPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)5.1%
Rank7Ross StewartPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)4.5%
Rank8Kieron BowiePosFWFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)4.3%
Rank9James WilsonPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)4.1%
Rank10John McGinnPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)2.8%
Rank11Ryan ChristiePosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)1.8%
Rank12Kenny McLeanPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank13Ben Gannon-DoakPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank14Billy GilmourPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank15Lennon MillerPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank16Andy IrvingPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank17Connor BarronPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank18Findlay CurtisPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank19Lewis FergusonPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank20Josh MulliganPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank21Jack HendryPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank22Andy RobertsonPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank23Grant HanleyPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank24Anthony RalstonPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank25John SouttarPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank26Aaron HickeyPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank27Max JohnstonPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank28Dominic HyamPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank29Ross McCroriePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank30Nathan PattersonPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank31Josh DoigPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank32Scott McKennaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank33Kieran TierneyPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank34Angus GunnPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank35Callan McKennaPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank36Cieran SlickerPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank37Craig GordonPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank38Liam KellyPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank39Robby McCroriePosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank40Ross DoohanPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank41Scott BainPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank42Zander ClarkPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.