Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Uruguay

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Uruguay — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Uruguay's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Uruguay plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/uru/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

50 players in the pool

Rank1Darwin NúñezPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%
Rank2Brian RodríguezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)11.1%
Rank3Federico ViñasPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)10.6%
Rank4Rodrigo AguirrePosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)10.6%
Rank5Cristian OliveraPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)10.2%
Rank6Facundo TorresPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)9.7%
Rank7Agustín ÁlvarezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)9.5%
Rank8Agustín CanobbioPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)8.4%
Rank9Luciano RodríguezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)8.4%
Rank10Ignacio LaquintanaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)7.0%
Rank11Lucas TorreiraPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)6.5%
Rank12Facundo MartínezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)6.0%
Rank13Nicolás AzambujaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)6.0%
Rank14Facundo PellistriPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)3.6%
Rank15Maximiliano AraújoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.8%
Rank16Nahitan NándezPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.7%
Rank17Federico ValverdePosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.6%
Rank18Rodrigo BentancurPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank19Manuel UgartePosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank20Emiliano MartínezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.1%
Rank21Nicolás de la CruzPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.8%
Rank22Nicolás FonsecaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank23Rodrigo ZalazarPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank24Juan Manuel SanabriaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.5%
Rank25Julio DaguerPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank26Giorgian de ArrascaetaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank27Luciano GonzálezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank28Pablo AlcobaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank29Santiago HomenchenkoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank30José María GiménezPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank31Ronald AraújoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank32Guillermo VarelaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank33Matías ViñaPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank34Marcelo SaracchiPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank35José Luis RodríguezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank36Nicolás MarichalPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank37Kevin AmaroPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank38Santiago MouriñoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank39Brian BarbozaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank40Joaquín PiquerezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank41Sebastián CáceresPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank42Mathías OliveraPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank43Santiago BuenoPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank44Cristopher FiermarinPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank45Fernando MusleraPosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank46Franco IsraelPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank47Kevin MartínezPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank48Paulo da CostaPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank49Santiago MelePosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank50Sergio RochetPosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.