Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Colombia

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Colombia — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Colombia's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Colombia plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/col/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

59 players in the pool

Rank1James RodríguezPKPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)37.4%
Rank2Luis DíazPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%
Rank3Jhon CórdobaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)17.0%
Rank4Rafael Santos BorréPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)10.4%
Rank5Luis SuárezPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)10.2%
Rank6Jhon DuránPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)8.5%
Rank7Andrés GómezPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)8.2%
Rank8Sebastián VillaPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)7.2%
Rank9Cucho HernándezPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)6.3%
Rank10Johan CarboneroPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank11Juan CuadradoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank12Stiven MendozaPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)5.6%
Rank13Dayro MorenoPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)5.5%
Rank14Edwuin CetréPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)5.1%
Rank15Kevin ViverosPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)5.1%
Rank16Néiser VillarrealPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)5.1%
Rank17Wilmar BarriosPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)3.2%
Rank18Richard RíosPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)2.7%
Rank19Jhon AriasPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank20Kevin CastañoPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank21Juan Fernando QuinteroPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.9%
Rank22Jefferson LermaPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank23Jorge CarrascalPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank24Daniel MuñozPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank25Juan PortillaPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank26Yáser AsprillaPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank27Jaminton CampazPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank28Gustavo PuertaPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank29Sebastián GómezPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank30Kevin SernaPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank31Marino HinestrozaPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank32Rafael CarrascalPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank33Davinson SánchezPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank34Jhon SolísPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank35Johan RojasPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank36Jordan BarreraPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank37Juan Manuel Rengifo [ es ]PosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank38Nelson DeossaPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank39Yerry MinaPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank40Deiver MachadoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank41Carlos CuestaPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank42Johan MojicaPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank43Jhon LucumíPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank44Santiago AriasPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank45Álvaro AnguloPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank46Juan CabalPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank47Andrés RománPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank48Willer DittaPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank49Yerson MosqueraPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank50Cristian BorjaPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank51Édier OcampoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank52Jhohan RomañaPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank53Junior Hernández [ es ]PosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank54Aldair QuintanaPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank55Álvaro MonteroPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank56Andrés MosqueraPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank57Camilo VargasPosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank58David OspinaPosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank59Kevin MierPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.