Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Argentina

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Argentina — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Argentina's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Argentina plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/arg/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

65 players in the pool

Rank1Lionel MessiPKPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)46.9%
Rank2Lautaro MartínezPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)23.3%
Rank3Julián AlvarezPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)19.1%
Rank4Nicolás GonzálezPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)17.0%
Rank5Ángel CorreaPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)15.4%
Rank6Alejandro GarnachoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)10.6%
Rank7José Manuel LópezPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)7.6%
Rank8Franco MastantuonoPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)7.5%
Rank9Gianluca PrestianniPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)6.4%
Rank10Claudio EcheverriPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank11Joaquín PanichelliPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank12Mateo PellegrinoPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank13Matías SouléPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank14Santiago CastroPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank15Tomás ArandaPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank16Giuliano SimeonePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.9%
Rank17Enzo FernándezPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.7%
Rank18Giovani Lo CelsoPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.1%
Rank19Valentín CarboniPosFWFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)4.0%
Rank20Alexis Mac AllisterPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)3.3%
Rank21Emiliano BuendíaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank22Leandro ParedesPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank23Rodrigo De PaulPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.1%
Rank24Nicolás DomínguezPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.1%
Rank25Exequiel PalaciosPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.9%
Rank26Thiago AlmadaPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank27Nicolás TagliaficoPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank28Nico PazPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank29Máximo PerronePosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank30Nicolás OtamendiPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank31Aníbal MorenoPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank32Alan VarelaPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank33Enzo BarrenecheaPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank34Equi FernándezPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank35Milton DelgadoPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank36Lisandro MartínezPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank37Nahuel MolinaPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank38Lucas Martínez QuartaPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank39Guido RodríguezPosMFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank40Juan FoythPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank41Cristian RomeroPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank42Facundo MedinaPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank43Leonardo BalerdiPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank44Germán PezzellaPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank45Marcos AcuñaPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank46Valentín BarcoPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank47Gonzalo MontielPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank48Lautaro RiveroPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank49Agustín GiayPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank50Kevin Mac AllisterPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank51Gabriel RojasPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank52Julio SolerPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank53Kevin LomónacoPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank54Lautaro Di LolloPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank55Mariano TroiloPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank56Nicolás CapaldoPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank57Tomás PalaciosPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank58Zaid RomeroPosDFFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank59Marcos SenesiPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank60Emiliano MartínezPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank61Facundo CambesesPosGKFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank62Gerónimo RulliPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank63Juan MussoPosGKFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank64Santiago BeltránPosGKFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank65Walter BenítezPosGKFormTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.