Home · Tournament scorers · Portugal Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
Tournament scorers · Portugal
Snapshot · 2026-05-29 Portugal — P(scores ≥1 goal) Every player in Portugal's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Portugal plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/por/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.
37 players in the pool # Player Pos Form Team outlook P(scores ≥1) Rank 1 Cristiano Ronaldo PK Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 44.4% ? Rank 2 Gonçalo Ramos Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.8% ? Rank 3 João Félix Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 15.9% ? Rank 4 Rafael Leão Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 13.1% ? Rank 5 Francisco Conceição Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 8.9% ? Rank 6 Paulinho Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 7.0% ?
Rank 7 Francisco Trincão Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 7.0% ? Rank 8 Bruno Fernandes Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ? Rank 9 Gonçalo Guedes Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ? Rank 10 Pedro Gonçalves Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ?
Rank 11 Carlos Forbs Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.0% ?
Rank 12 Ricardo Horta Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.0% ?
Rank 13 Rodrigo Mora Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 4.6% ?
Rank 14 Vitinha Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.6% ? Rank 15 Pedro Neto Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.4% ? Rank 16 João Neves Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.2% ? Rank 17 Bernardo Silva Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.0% ? Rank 18 Rúben Neves Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.2% ? Rank 19 João Palhinha Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.1% ?
Rank 20 Samú Costa Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.9% ? Rank 21 Mateus Fernandes Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.9% ?
Rank 22 João Cancelo Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.8% ? Rank 23 Diogo Dalot Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.6% ? Rank 24 Nuno Tavares Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.5% ?
Rank 25 Gonçalo Inácio Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 26 Nélson Semedo Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 27 António Silva Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ?
Rank 28 Nuno Mendes Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 29 Renato Veiga Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 30 Matheus Nunes Pos DF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 31 Rúben Dias Pos DF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 32 Tomás Araújo Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 33 Diogo Costa Pos GK Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 34 João Carvalho Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
Rank 35 José Sá Pos GK Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 36 Ricardo Velho Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
Rank 37 Rui Silva Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? ▸ How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1) Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count. Full definitions in the glossary .
How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.
onthepitch
A research surface for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Sports analytics and statistical research. Model outputs are probabilities of sporting outcomes derived from public data, published as research and analysis for analysts, journalists, fantasy players, and developers. Editorial scope is limited to the model's own probabilities, the methodology behind them, and the calibration of the two against observed results. Use of this site is subject to our Terms .