Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

赛事进球排名

P(进球 ≥1) — 2026 世界杯

模型对每位球员在其所在国家参加的 2026 赛事比赛中至少进一球的概率估算。基于球员近期俱乐部进球率、国际比赛出场推导的预期上场时间、按位置加权的球队预期进球份额、对手防守乘数, 以及球队在淘汰赛 Monte Carlo 中的预期世界杯比赛场次。方法论和已知 v0 限制详见 /docs/methodology/。

来自 48 支球队的 2,630 名球员 · 快照 2026-05-29

P(进球 ≥1) 前 50 名

50 players

Rank1RaphinhaPKBrazilPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)55.3%
Rank2Jonathan DavidPKCanadaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)47.5%
Rank3Lionel MessiPKArgentinaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)46.9%
Rank4Mikel OyarzabalPKSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)46.0%
Rank5Erling HaalandPKNorwayPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%
Rank6Cristiano RonaldoPKPortugalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)44.4%
Rank7Folarin BalogunPKUnited StatesPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)43.3%
Rank8Son Heung-minPKSouth KoreaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)42.0%
Rank9Chris WoodPKNew ZealandPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)39.2%
Rank10Marcus ThuramPKFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)38.9%
Rank11Ante BudimirPKCroatiaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-84.9 mpP(scores ≥1)38.8%
Rank12James RodríguezPKColombiaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)37.4%
Rank13Raúl JiménezPKMexicoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)36.2%
Rank14Alexander SørlothNorwayPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)34.4%
Rank15Kevin De BruynePKBelgiumPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)33.1%
Rank16Jordan AyewPKGhanaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.3 mpP(scores ≥1)32.3%
Rank17Harry KaneEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%
Rank18Gabriel JesusBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)31.7%
Rank19Ferran TorresSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)30.9%
Rank20Ricardo RodriguezPKSwitzerlandPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)30.2%
Rank21Gonçalo RamosPortugalPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.8%
Rank22Franck KessiéPKIvory CoastPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%
Rank23Marcus RashfordPKEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%
Rank24Yoane WissaPKDR CongoPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%
Rank25Niclas FüllkrugPKGermanyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)28.6%
Rank26Donyell MalenNetherlandsPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)28.3%
Rank27Vinícius JúniorBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)28.0%
Rank28Ousmane DembéléFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)27.9%
Rank29Antonio SanabriaPKParaguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)27.8%
Rank30Amine GouiriPKAlgeriaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%
Rank31Breel EmboloSwitzerlandPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%
Rank32Sofyan AmrabatPKMoroccoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.0%
Rank33Omar MarmoushEgyptPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)26.9%
Rank34Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKTurkeyPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)26.5%
Rank35Mostafa MohamedEgyptPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.4%
Rank36Daichi KamadaPKJapanPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%
Rank37Jürgen LocadiaPKCuraçaoPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%
Rank38Luis DíazColombiaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%
Rank39Marcel SabitzerPKAustriaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)24.3%
Rank40NeymarBrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)24.0%
Rank41Lautaro MartínezArgentinaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)23.3%
Rank42Ermedin DemirovićBosnia and HerzegovinaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookKnockout3.6 mpP(scores ≥1)22.8%
Rank43Boulaye DiaPKSenegalPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%
Rank44Memphis DepayPKNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%
Rank45Bamba DiengSenegalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)21.8%
Rank46Lamine YamalSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)21.7%
Rank47Darwin NúñezUruguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%
Rank48Cody GakpoNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%
Rank49Patrik SchickCzech RepublicPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%
Rank50Bradley BarcolaFrancePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.5%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

每行显示赛事中进球 ≥1 的概率, 以及球队展望（竞争层级和预期比赛场次）。

按国家

Brazil55.3%
RaphinhaFW
Canada47.5%
Jonathan DavidFW
Argentina46.9%
Lionel MessiFW
Spain46.0%
Mikel OyarzabalFW
Norway45.1%
Erling HaalandFW
Portugal44.4%
Cristiano RonaldoFW
United States43.3%
Folarin BalogunFW
South Korea42.0%
Son Heung-minFW
New Zealand39.2%
Chris WoodFW
France38.9%
Marcus ThuramFW
Croatia38.8%
Ante BudimirFW
Colombia37.4%
James RodríguezMF
Mexico36.2%
Raúl JiménezFW
Belgium33.1%
Kevin De BruyneMF
Ghana32.3%
Jordan AyewFW
England32.0%
Harry KaneFW
Switzerland30.2%
Ricardo RodriguezDF
Ivory Coast29.6%
Franck KessiéMF
DR Congo29.5%
Yoane WissaFW
Germany28.6%
Niclas FüllkrugFW
Netherlands28.3%
Donyell MalenFW
Paraguay27.8%
Antonio SanabriaFW
Algeria27.7%
Amine GouiriFW
Morocco27.0%
Sofyan AmrabatMF
Egypt26.9%
Omar MarmoushFW
Turkey26.5%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMF
Curaçao25.2%
Jürgen LocadiaFW
Japan25.2%
Daichi KamadaMF
Austria24.3%
Marcel SabitzerMF
Bosnia and Herzegovina22.8%
Ermedin DemirovićFW
Senegal22.7%
Boulaye DiaFW
Uruguay21.5%
Darwin NúñezFW
Czech Republic21.4%
Patrik SchickFW
Sweden18.3%
Alexander IsakFW
Cape Verde18.1%
Nuno da CostaFW
Qatar16.6%
Akram AfifFW
Ecuador16.5%
Kevin RodríguezFW
Tunisia16.0%
Seifeddine JaziriFW
Australia15.7%
Brandon BorrelloFW
Uzbekistan14.1%
Eldor ShomurodovFW
Panama13.9%
Alfredo StephensFW
Saudi Arabia12.3%
Abdullah Al-HamdanFW
South Africa12.3%
Evidence MakgopaFW
Iran12.0%
Mehdi TaremiFW
Haiti10.1%
Dany JeanFW
Jordan9.9%
Ahmad ErsanFW
Scotland9.9%
Ché AdamsFW
Iraq8.3%
Aymen HusseinFW

每张卡片显示该国 P(进球 ≥1) 排名最高的球员。点击查看完整各国列表。

这是什么。 v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.

这不是什么。 本页以概率形式发布模型输出。这不是建议, 不是对任何特定比赛的预测, 也不是任何商业产品的指南。研究框架详见 /docs/。

赛事进球排名 · onthepitch