Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · Mexico

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

Mexico ★ — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Mexico's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Mexico plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/mex/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

85 players in the pool

Rank1Raúl JiménezPKPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)36.2%
Rank2Santiago GiménezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)18.5%
Rank3Hirving LozanoPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)12.8%
Rank4Alexis VegaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)12.3%
Rank5César HuertaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)11.4%
Rank6Julián QuiñonesPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)11.1%
Rank7Brian GutiérrezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)8.6%
Rank8Germán BerteramePosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)8.2%
Rank9Armando GonzálezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)8.1%
Rank10Guillermo MartínezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)7.8%
Rank11Henry MartínPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)6.9%
Rank12Ángel SepúlvedaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)6.5%
Rank13Stephano CarrilloPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank14Carlos RodríguezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)3.3%
Rank15Orbelín PinedaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank16Roberto AlvaradoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.2%
Rank17Edson ÁlvarezPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)2.1%
Rank18Érik LiraPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.9%
Rank19Luis RomoPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.9%
Rank20Diego LainezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank21Luis ChávezPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank22Érick SánchezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank23Ozziel HerreraPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank24Gilberto MoraPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank25Johan VásquezPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank26Alan CervantesPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank27Brian GutiérrezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank28Obed VargasPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank29Alexis GutiérrezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank30Jesús Ricardo AnguloPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank31Efraín ÁlvarezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank32Álvaro FidalgoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank33Denzell GarcíaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank34Kevin CastañedaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank35Jairo TorresPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank36Fidel AmbrízPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank37Jordán CarrilloPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank38Jorge RuvalcabaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank39Sebastián CórdovaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank40Alexéi DomínguezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank41Amaury MoralesPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank42Elías MontielPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank43Hugo CamberosPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank44Iker FimbresPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank45Isaías ViolantePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank46Jeremy MárquezPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank47Marcel RuizPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank48Jorge SánchezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank49Jesús GallardoPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank50Kevin ÁlvarezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank51Israel ReyesPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank52Gilberto SepúlvedaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank53Mateo ChávezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank54Víctor GuzmánPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank55Gerardo ArteagaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank56Jesús Alberto AnguloPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank57Jesús OrozcoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank58Julián AraujoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank59Everardo LópezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank60Richard LedezmaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank61Salvador ReyesPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank62Ramón JuárezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank63Alejandro GómezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank64Bryan GonzálezPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank65Diego CampilloPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank66Eduardo ÁguilaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank67Emilio LaraPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank68Jesús GarzaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank69Juanjo PurataPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank70Alonso AcevesPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank71César MontesPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank72Diego BarbosaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank73José CastilloPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank74Luis ReyPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank75Rodrigo HuescasPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank76Álex PadillaPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank77Andrés SánchezPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank78Carlos AcevedoPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank79Carlos MorenoPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank80Guillermo OchoaPosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank81José Antonio RodríguezPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank82Luis MalagónPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank83Óscar GarcíaPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank84Raúl RangelPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank85Sebastián JuradoPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.