Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · New Zealand

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

New Zealand — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in New Zealand's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches New Zealand plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/nzl/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

40 players in the pool

Rank1Chris WoodPKPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)39.2%
Rank2Ben WainePosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)13.3%
Rank3Logan RogersonPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)11.6%
Rank4Andre de JongPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)9.5%
Rank5Jesse RandallPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)7.8%
Rank6Ben OldPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)4.8%
Rank7Luke Brooke-SmithPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)4.2%
Rank8Kosta BarbarousesPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)3.7%
Rank9Alex RuferPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank10Callum McCowattPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank11Elijah JustPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank12Marko StamenićPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank13Matthew GarbettPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank14Ryan ThomasPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank15Sarpreet SinghPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank16Liberato CacacePosDFFormRisingTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank17Joe BellPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank18Owen Parker-PricePosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank19Lachlan BaylissPosMFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank20Bill TuilomaPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank21Nando PijnakerPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank22Tommy SmithPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank23Francis de VriesPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank24Finn SurmanPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank25Michael BoxallPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank26Tim PaynePosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank27Storm RouxPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank28Callan ElliotPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank29James McGarryPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank30Lukas Kelly-HealdPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank31Dalton WilkinsPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank32George StangerPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank33Tyler BindonPosDFFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank34Alex PaulsenPosGKFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank35Henry GrayPosGKFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank36Kees SimsPosGKFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank37Max CrocombePosGKFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank38Michael WoudPosGKFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank39Nik TzanevPosGKFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank40Oliver SailPosGKFormTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.