Tournament scorers · Japan

Snapshot · 2026-06-23Model 1.0.0

JapanP(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Japan's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Japan plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/jpn/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

71 players in the pool

Rank1Daichi KamadaPKPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)24.9%
Rank2Ayase UedaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)12.0%
Rank3Daizen MaedaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)10.3%
Rank4Kōki OgawaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)9.5%
Rank5Shūto MachinoPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)8.5%
Rank6Takuma NishimuraPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)8.5%
Rank7Mao HosoyaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)7.3%
Rank8Keisuke GotōPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)7.1%
Rank9Keito NakamuraPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)6.6%
Rank10Taisei MiyashiroPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)6.5%
Rank11Yuki KakitaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)6.5%
Rank12Ryo GermainPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)6.2%
Rank13Taichi HaraPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank14Yūki ŌhashiPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)5.9%
Rank15Yuito SuzukiPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank16Shin YamadaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank17Kento ShiogaiPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)5.5%
Rank18Kaoru MitomaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)3.8%
Rank19Ritsu DōanPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)3.7%
Rank20Takefusa KuboPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)3.5%
Rank21Junya ItōPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)3.3%
Rank22Takumi MinaminoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank23Hayao KawabePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.8%
Rank24Ao TanakaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank25Hiroki ItōPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank26Henry Heroki MochizukiPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.5%
Rank27Sho InagakiPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank28Yūki SōmaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.3%
Rank29Kōta TawaratsumidaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank30Ryūnosuke SatōPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank31Kodai SanoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank32Sōta NakamuraPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank33Yuto OzekiPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank34Zento UnoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank35Ryōya MorishitaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank36Kōki SaitōPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank37Satoshi TanakaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank38Tojiro KuboPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank39Yū HirakawaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank40Kaishu SanoPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank41Joel Chima FujitaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank42Shunsuke MitoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank43Sōta KitanoPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank44Koki KumasakaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank45Sōta KawasakiPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank46Takehiro TomiyasuPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank47Yukinari SugawaraPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank48Kō ItakuraPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank49Shōgo TaniguchiPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank50Wataru EndoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank51Tsuyoshi WatanabePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank52Hayato ArakiPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank53Ayumu SekoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank54Daiki HashiokaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank55Junnosuke SuzukiPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank56Kōta TakaiPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank57Taiyo KogaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank58Tomoya AndoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank59Yuto TsunashimaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank60Kōki MachidaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank61Hiroki SekinePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank62Naomichi UedaPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank63Maya YoshidaPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank64Yūto NagatomoPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank65Alexandre PisanoPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank66Keisuke ŌsakoPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank67Kōsei TaniPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank68Leo KokuboPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank69Taishi Brandon NozawaPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank70Tomoki HayakawaPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank71Zion SuzukiPosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.