大会得点者
P(1ゴール以上): 2026ワールドカップ 2026大会で各国が出場する試合を通じて、各選手が1ゴール以上を決める確率のモデル推定値。各選手の直近のクラブレベルの得点率、代表キャップ数から導出される予想出場時間、チームの期待ゴール数に対するポジション加重シェア、対戦相手の守備力補正、ブラケットモンテカルロからのチームのW杯予想試合数から算出。方法論と既知のv0制限事項は /docs/methodology/ に記載。
48 チーム 2,630 選手 · スナップショット 2026-06-23
P(1ゴール以上) 上位 50 All 50 Forwards FW 50 Midfielders MF 50 Defenders DF 50 Goalkeepers GK 50
50 players
# Player · country Pos Form Team outlook P(scores ≥1) Rank 1 Raphinha PK Brazil Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 54.9% ? Rank 2 Mikel Oyarzabal PK Spain Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 48.0% ? Rank 3 Lionel Messi PK Argentina Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Final 5.7 mp P(scores ≥1) 46.4% ? Rank 4 Memphis Depay PK Netherlands Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 45.8% ? Rank 5 Mohamed Salah PK Egypt Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 45.8% ? Rank 6 Jonathan David PK Canada Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 45.1% ? Rank 7 Erling Haaland PK Norway Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 43.8% ? Rank 8 Cristiano Ronaldo PK Portugal Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 43.1% ? Rank 9 Son Heung-min PK South Korea Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 41.8% ? Rank 10 Marcus Thuram PK France Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 40.5% ? Rank 11 Ante Budimir PK Croatia Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.9 mp P(scores ≥1) 37.9% ? Rank 12 Chris Wood PK New Zealand Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Long shot 3.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 37.3% ? Rank 13 James Rodríguez PK Colombia Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 36.8% ? Rank 14 Folarin Balogun PK United States Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 36.1% ? Rank 15 Harry Kane England Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 35.9% ? Rank 16 Raúl Jiménez PK Mexico Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.8 mp P(scores ≥1) 34.6% ? Rank 17 Marcus Rashford PK England Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 34.0% ? Rank 18 Jordan Ayew PK Ghana Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Knockout 3.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 32.8% ? Rank 19 Donyell Malen Netherlands Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 32.0% ? Rank 20 Gabriel Jesus Brazil Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 31.3% ? Rank 21 Franck Kessié PK Ivory Coast Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 30.6% ? Rank 22 Kevin De Bruyne PK Belgium Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 30.6% ? Rank 23 Antonio Sanabria PK Paraguay Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 30.2% ? Rank 24 Ricardo Rodriguez PK Switzerland Pos DF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.9% ? Rank 25 Yoane Wissa PK DR Congo Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Knockout 3.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.8% ? Rank 26 Niclas Füllkrug PK Germany Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-8 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.5% ? Rank 27 Lautaro Martínez Argentina Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.7 mp P(scores ≥1) 28.9% ? Rank 28 Luis Díaz Colombia Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 28.5% ? Rank 29 Amine Gouiri PK Algeria Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Knockout 4.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 28.3% ? Rank 30 Ferran Torres Spain Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 27.8% ? Rank 31 Omar Marmoush Egypt Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 27.7% ? Rank 32 Hakan Çalhanoğlu PK Turkey Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 27.4% ? Rank 33 Sofyan Amrabat PK Morocco Pos MF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-8 4.8 mp P(scores ≥1) 26.4% ? Rank 34 Lamine Yamal Spain Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Final 5.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 25.3% ? Rank 35 Jürgen Locadia PK Curaçao Pos FW Form — Team outlook Long shot 3.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 25.0% ? Rank 36 Daichi Kamada PK Japan Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 24.9% ? Rank 37 Marcel Sabitzer PK Austria Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 24.7% ? Rank 38 Kylian Mbappé France Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.9% ? Rank 39 Neymar Brazil Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.6% ? Rank 40 Vinícius Júnior Brazil Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.5% ? Rank 41 Nicolás González Argentina Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Final 5.7 mp P(scores ≥1) 23.1% ? Rank 42 Patrik Schick Czech Republic Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook R16 4.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.8% ? Rank 43 Julio Enciso Paraguay Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.2 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.7% ? Rank 44 Darwin Núñez Uruguay Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook R16 4.8 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.5% ? Rank 45 Loïs Openda Belgium Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.1 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.4% ? Rank 46 Bamba Dieng Senegal Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook R16 4.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.0% ? Rank 47 Breel Embolo Switzerland Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-8 5.0 mp P(scores ≥1) 21.0% ? Rank 48 Gabriel Martinelli Brazil Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.5 mp P(scores ≥1) 20.8% ? Rank 49 Lucas Cavallini Canada Pos FW Form — Team outlook R16 4.6 mp P(scores ≥1) 20.1% ? Rank 50 Leroy Sané Germany Pos FW Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-8 5.3 mp P(scores ≥1) 20.1% ? ▸ How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1) Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count. 各行は大会を通じた1ゴール以上の確率と、チームの見通し（コンテンダーティアと予想試合数）を表示。
国別 各カードはその国で P(1ゴール以上) が最も高い選手を表示。クリックすると国別の全リストを表示。
Browse all players → Full tournament forecast → onthepitch
2026 FIFA ワールドカップのリサーチプラットフォーム。
方法論
Forecasts come from a calibrated Ensemble Elo Dixon-Coles Hierarchical Poisson /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up. Tap any abbreviation in a data table for its definition.
How the forecasts score against results (Brier log-loss calibration scoreboard .
Built 14 Jul 14:01 UTC · Day 34 of the tournament · Methodology
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