Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

大会得点者

P(1ゴール以上): 2026ワールドカップ

2026大会で各国が出場する試合を通じて、各選手が1ゴール以上を決める確率のモデル推定値。各選手の直近のクラブレベルの得点率、代表キャップ数から導出される予想出場時間、チームの期待ゴール数に対するポジション加重シェア、対戦相手の守備力補正、ブラケットモンテカルロからのチームのW杯予想試合数から算出。方法論と既知のv0制限事項は /docs/methodology/ に記載。

48 チーム 2,630 選手 · スナップショット 2026-05-29

P(1ゴール以上) 上位 50

50 players

Rank1RaphinhaPKBrazilPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)55.3%
Rank2Jonathan DavidPKCanadaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)47.5%
Rank3Lionel MessiPKArgentinaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)46.9%
Rank4Mikel OyarzabalPKSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)46.0%
Rank5Erling HaalandPKNorwayPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%
Rank6Cristiano RonaldoPKPortugalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)44.4%
Rank7Folarin BalogunPKUnited StatesPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)43.3%
Rank8Son Heung-minPKSouth KoreaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)42.0%
Rank9Chris WoodPKNew ZealandPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)39.2%
Rank10Marcus ThuramPKFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)38.9%
Rank11Ante BudimirPKCroatiaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-84.9 mpP(scores ≥1)38.8%
Rank12James RodríguezPKColombiaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)37.4%
Rank13Raúl JiménezPKMexicoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)36.2%
Rank14Alexander SørlothNorwayPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)34.4%
Rank15Kevin De BruynePKBelgiumPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)33.1%
Rank16Jordan AyewPKGhanaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.3 mpP(scores ≥1)32.3%
Rank17Harry KaneEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%
Rank18Gabriel JesusBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)31.7%
Rank19Ferran TorresSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)30.9%
Rank20Ricardo RodriguezPKSwitzerlandPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)30.2%
Rank21Gonçalo RamosPortugalPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.8%
Rank22Franck KessiéPKIvory CoastPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%
Rank23Marcus RashfordPKEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%
Rank24Yoane WissaPKDR CongoPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%
Rank25Niclas FüllkrugPKGermanyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)28.6%
Rank26Donyell MalenNetherlandsPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)28.3%
Rank27Vinícius JúniorBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)28.0%
Rank28Ousmane DembéléFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)27.9%
Rank29Antonio SanabriaPKParaguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)27.8%
Rank30Amine GouiriPKAlgeriaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%
Rank31Breel EmboloSwitzerlandPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%
Rank32Sofyan AmrabatPKMoroccoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.0%
Rank33Omar MarmoushEgyptPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)26.9%
Rank34Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKTurkeyPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)26.5%
Rank35Mostafa MohamedEgyptPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.4%
Rank36Daichi KamadaPKJapanPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%
Rank37Jürgen LocadiaPKCuraçaoPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%
Rank38Luis DíazColombiaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%
Rank39Marcel SabitzerPKAustriaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)24.3%
Rank40NeymarBrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)24.0%
Rank41Lautaro MartínezArgentinaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)23.3%
Rank42Ermedin DemirovićBosnia and HerzegovinaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookKnockout3.6 mpP(scores ≥1)22.8%
Rank43Boulaye DiaPKSenegalPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%
Rank44Memphis DepayPKNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%
Rank45Bamba DiengSenegalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)21.8%
Rank46Lamine YamalSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)21.7%
Rank47Darwin NúñezUruguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%
Rank48Cody GakpoNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%
Rank49Patrik SchickCzech RepublicPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%
Rank50Bradley BarcolaFrancePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.5%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

各行は大会を通じた1ゴール以上の確率と、チームの見通し（コンテンダーティアと予想試合数）を表示。

国別

Brazil55.3%
RaphinhaFW
Canada47.5%
Jonathan DavidFW
Argentina46.9%
Lionel MessiFW
Spain46.0%
Mikel OyarzabalFW
Norway45.1%
Erling HaalandFW
Portugal44.4%
Cristiano RonaldoFW
United States43.3%
Folarin BalogunFW
South Korea42.0%
Son Heung-minFW
New Zealand39.2%
Chris WoodFW
France38.9%
Marcus ThuramFW
Croatia38.8%
Ante BudimirFW
Colombia37.4%
James RodríguezMF
Mexico36.2%
Raúl JiménezFW
Belgium33.1%
Kevin De BruyneMF
Ghana32.3%
Jordan AyewFW
England32.0%
Harry KaneFW
Switzerland30.2%
Ricardo RodriguezDF
Ivory Coast29.6%
Franck KessiéMF
DR Congo29.5%
Yoane WissaFW
Germany28.6%
Niclas FüllkrugFW
Netherlands28.3%
Donyell MalenFW
Paraguay27.8%
Antonio SanabriaFW
Algeria27.7%
Amine GouiriFW
Morocco27.0%
Sofyan AmrabatMF
Egypt26.9%
Omar MarmoushFW
Turkey26.5%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMF
Curaçao25.2%
Jürgen LocadiaFW
Japan25.2%
Daichi KamadaMF
Austria24.3%
Marcel SabitzerMF
Bosnia and Herzegovina22.8%
Ermedin DemirovićFW
Senegal22.7%
Boulaye DiaFW
Uruguay21.5%
Darwin NúñezFW
Czech Republic21.4%
Patrik SchickFW
Sweden18.3%
Alexander IsakFW
Cape Verde18.1%
Nuno da CostaFW
Qatar16.6%
Akram AfifFW
Ecuador16.5%
Kevin RodríguezFW
Tunisia16.0%
Seifeddine JaziriFW
Australia15.7%
Brandon BorrelloFW
Uzbekistan14.1%
Eldor ShomurodovFW
Panama13.9%
Alfredo StephensFW
Saudi Arabia12.3%
Abdullah Al-HamdanFW
South Africa12.3%
Evidence MakgopaFW
Iran12.0%
Mehdi TaremiFW
Haiti10.1%
Dany JeanFW
Jordan9.9%
Ahmad ErsanFW
Scotland9.9%
Ché AdamsFW
Iraq8.3%
Aymen HusseinFW

各カードはその国で P(1ゴール以上) が最も高い選手を表示。クリックすると国別の全リストを表示。

これは何か。 v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.

これは何でないか。 このページはモデル出力を確率として公開しています。推奨ではなく、特定の試合の予測でもなく、いかなる商用製品への案内でもありません。プロジェクトの研究フレーミングは /docs/ をご覧ください。

大会得点者 · onthepitch