Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament scorers · England

Snapshot · 2026-05-29

England — P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in England's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches England plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/eng/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

51 players in the pool

Rank1Harry KanePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%
Rank2Marcus RashfordPKPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%
Rank3Ollie WatkinsPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)19.4%
Rank4Bukayo SakaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)18.5%
Rank5Phil FodenPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)15.5%
Rank6Jarrod BowenPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)13.2%
Rank7Ivan ToneyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)13.2%
Rank8Anthony GordonPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)13.0%
Rank9Noni MaduekePosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)10.8%
Rank10Dominic Calvert-LewinPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)10.3%
Rank11Harvey BarnesPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)9.4%
Rank12Dominic SolankePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)9.4%
Rank13Jude BellinghamPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)9.3%
Rank14Cole PalmerPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)6.8%
Rank15Eberechi EzePosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)6.5%
Rank16Morgan RogersPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)4.5%
Rank17Curtis JonesPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)4.0%
Rank18Declan RicePosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)3.8%
Rank19Morgan Gibbs-WhitePosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)3.1%
Rank20Conor GallagherPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)3.0%
Rank21Kobbie MainooPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)2.1%
Rank22Alex ScottPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank23Elliot AndersonPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)1.6%
Rank24Jordan HendersonPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank25Adam WhartonPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank26Ruben Loftus-CheekPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank27Trent Alexander-ArnoldPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank28James GarnerPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank29Marc GuéhiPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank30Harry MaguirePosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank31Reece JamesPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank32Trevoh ChalobahPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank33Dan BurnPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank34John StonesPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank35Levi ColwillPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank36Lewis HallPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank37Nico O'ReillyPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank38Ben WhitePosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank39Kyle WalkerPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank40Ezri KonsaPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank41Jarell QuansahPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank42Tino LivramentoPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank43Djed SpencePosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank44Myles Lewis-SkellyPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank45Fikayo TomoriPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank46Aaron RamsdalePosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank47Dean HendersonPosGKFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank48James TraffordPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank49Jason SteelePosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank50Jordan PickfordPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank51Nick PopePosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Full definitions in the glossary.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.