Next match · Group B · Matchday 1

Qatar vs Switzerland

13 Jun 2026 · Santa Clara, United States

Scheduled
Qatar
:
Switzerland

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

Standard Pass for probabilities

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Qatar or Switzerland.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 1
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.

One side is at full strength, while the other has a minor fitness doubt to consider ahead of kick-off. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Post-match calibration is free. When this match finishes, the forecast-vs-result recap: pre-match probability vs the realised outcome, Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted: publishes on the recap page, open to everyone.

Standard Pass

The model's full forecast for this match

Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths, all from one Dixon-Coles fit. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Qatar v Switzerland plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.