Update log
What's new on the site
New features, UX improvements, and bug fixes shipped to onthepitch.now. Newest first.
- UX29 May 2026
Fixture detail: five sections with sticky jump-nav
Fixture pages now organise forecast, team profiles, model comparison, scorer probabilities, and analysis into five labelled sections with a sticky navigation bar.
- New29 May 2026
PK-taker badge on scorer and fixture pages
Designated penalty-kick takers now carry a badge on both the scorer probability table and individual fixture pages.
- New29 May 2026
Head-to-head pages for every group-stage match
Each of the 72 group-stage fixtures now has a dedicated head-to-head page at /h2h/ with historical record and the model's match probability.
- New29 May 2026
Free API trial: 10 calls for all signed-in readers
Every signed-in account now includes a lifetime free allowance of 10 API and MCP calls — no pass required — to sample the programmatic data product.
- UX29 May 2026
Homepage hero redesigned with clearer value summary
The homepage now leads with a benefit-focused headline, a trust strip, and a clear call to action — making it easier for first-time readers to understand what the site offers.
- New29 May 2026
Homepage: live World Cup news feed added
A live 'Around the World Cup' feed now appears on the homepage, surfacing the latest content from news, posts, research notes, and fixtures, refreshed hourly.
- New29 May 2026
Stage-probability heatmap now free for all readers
The stage-by-stage probability heatmap on the Countries index is now free to view for all readers without signing in.
- New29 May 2026
Country pages: key question and likely opponents
Each national team page now leads with a key question about the team's tournament outlook and shows the model's most likely opponents round by round.
- New29 May 2026
Bracket: projected teams shown for all rounds
The bracket view now propagates the model's most likely tournament path through all rounds — R16, quarterfinals, semifinals, and the final — for Standard Pass holders.
- New29 May 2026
Hosted MCP server: AI access at /api/mcp/
Signed-in readers can now point any MCP-capable AI assistant directly at the site's data — add the URL and your API key, no package install required.
- Fix29 May 2026
Fix: stuck pending Pass resolved on account page
Accounts that showed a permanent 'awaiting PayPal confirmation' state after an abandoned checkout are now correctly resolved and can retry their purchase.
- New29 May 2026
Pro Pass access extended to 31 December 2026
All Pass purchases — Standard and Pro — now grant access through the end of December 2026, extended from the previous August expiry.
- New29 May 2026
Fixture pages: compare four models side by side
Standard Pass holders can now compare the Elo, Dixon-Coles, Hierarchical Poisson, and Ensemble probability estimates on any fixture page.
- New29 May 2026
Post: Spain's squad with no Real Madrid players
A new analytical post examines what Spain's Barcelona-heavy 2026 squad means for their tournament preparation and how the model rates their outlook.
- New29 May 2026
Player profiles: squad info + FBref career stats
Player profile pages now combine tournament squad data with FBref career statistics for eligible players, including stat percentiles and a season-by-season chart.
- New29 May 2026
API keys: single key, Bearer auth, reset on demand
Account holders can now generate a personal API key from their account page and use it to authenticate REST and MCP requests with standard Bearer tokens.
- New27 May 2026
Player profiles for all 1,248 WC2026 squad players
Every squad member now has a dedicated profile page showing international caps, goals, composite rating, club, injury status, and squad role. Player names in squad tables and fixture views link directly to their profile.
- New27 May 2026
Statistical profile card on every country page
A new stats panel on each team's page aggregates 15 per-team metrics across attack, defence, set pieces, style, and squad strength — all ranked within the 48-team tournament field.
- UX27 May 2026
Fixture pages: clear tier-gated layout
Fixture detail pages now have a single clear structure: a brief outlook for all readers, with the full probability breakdown, match analysis, and set-piece detail reserved for Standard Pass and Pro Pass holders.
- UX27 May 2026
Pro Data hub restored to main navigation
The Pro Data hub (/pro/) is back in the top navigation bar, making the bulk data download and historical tournament slices reachable directly from any page without a direct URL.
- New27 May 2026
Editorial match summaries for all 72 group-stage fixtures
Each fixture page now carries a six-section editorial analysis covering the tactical matchup, key battlegrounds, situational factors, and the model's narrative framing for the match — visible to all readers.
- New27 May 2026
Player names link to profile pages throughout the site
Player names in squad browse tables, UCL cross-reference views, fixture scorer rows, and key-player sections are now clickable links leading to their individual profile pages.
- UX27 May 2026
Methodology page leads with accuracy figures
The methodology page now opens with a plain-English accuracy section, pulling the headline calibration and Brier score numbers to the top so readers get the bottom line before diving into model architecture.
- UX27 May 2026
New homepage bento dashboard
The homepage hero is now a bento-grid dashboard with the tournament stage funnel, a countdown to kickoff, the model's tournament favourite, the tightest group race, the closest upcoming fixture, and the calibration receipt — all in a unified layout.
- New27 May 2026
Site is now live — pre-launch gate removed
The waiting-room splash is gone. Every forecast, country profile, and research note is now accessible directly without signing up first.
- UX27 May 2026
Live tracker: live data and frozen model clearly separated
The live match tracker now visually distinguishes live data (stats and events, updating every ~30 s) from the frozen pre-match model output (probabilities and predicted scorelines, locked before kickoff), so readers always know which numbers are live.
- UX27 May 2026
Docs reorganised for football fans
The /docs/ index is restructured into five intuitive sections — 'How we make predictions', 'Players and managers', 'What shapes a match', 'Behind the scenes', and 'For developers' — with curiosity-driven titles throughout.
- Fix27 May 2026
Dynamic pages restored after rendering error
An opengraph module was loading a file at module scope, crashing metadata resolution on every dynamic route. Deferring the file read fixes the server-component rendering error that had been intermittently breaking fixture, country, and pricing pages.
- UX26 May 2026
Tier labels: Standard Pass and Pro Pass
The site's subscription tiers are now clearly labelled Standard Pass and Pro Pass.
- New26 May 2026
UCL final predictions page added
A dedicated landing page for the UEFA Champions League final is now live, showing pre-match probability forecasts for the fixture.
- New26 May 2026
Post: Spain and Argentina above FIFA-implied
A new research note explains why the model rates Spain's and Argentina's championship probability above the level the FIFA ranking ladder would predict.
- New26 May 2026
Post: Spain's squad — first with no Real Madrid
A new research post examines how Spain's WC2026 selection is the first in modern tournament history with no Real Madrid representation.
- UX26 May 2026
Site visual identity refreshed
The site's design has been updated with a cream-paper background, amber accent colour, and Fraunces serif heading typeface.
- New26 May 2026
/help/ support page added
A new help page at /help/ covers the refund policy, how to retrieve Pro Pass access, and how to contact support.
- UX26 May 2026
Country card: stage probabilities as heatmap
Stage probabilities on each country card are now rendered as a compact heatmap row of labelled percentage cells for faster scanning.
- Fix25 May 2026
Fix: countries index 500 error resolved
A server error that caused the countries index to fail on certain sort configurations has been fixed; all six sort modes now load correctly.
- New25 May 2026
Live fixture tracker launched
A live fixture tracker is now available, surfacing in-match data alongside a badge showing whether probability forecasts have been finalised for each game.
- UX25 May 2026
Country page: starting XI up, squad banner added
The predicted starting XI has moved above the fold on country pages, and a banner now flags which squads have been officially confirmed.
- New25 May 2026
Countries index: six-mode sort added
The countries index now has a sort control with six modes — including championship forecast, tournament rating, FIFA rank, and confederation.
- New25 May 2026
Storylines cover all 48 WC2026 teams
Team storylines now cover all 48 WC2026 sides, with diverse narrative types across squad, tactical, and schedule themes per team.
- UX25 May 2026
Countries: 6-stage chain and storyline one-liner
Each country card now shows a compact six-stage probability chain alongside a one-sentence narrative summary drawn from the model's data.
- UX24 May 2026
Nav relabelled: Countries and Matches
The navigation tabs have been renamed to Countries and Matches, with free-access sections ordered first.
- New24 May 2026
Countries pages now free to access
All 48 team country profiles are now freely accessible without a Pro Pass; the paid tier now gates detailed fixture probability data instead.
- UX24 May 2026
Countries and Scorers pages refreshed
The countries index and top scorers page have been redesigned with a cleaner header trio, improved table layout, and per-country outlook cards.
- New24 May 2026
Countries: likely knockout path shown per team
Each country page now displays the most probable sequence of opponents through the knockout rounds, all the way to the final.
- New24 May 2026
Country pages: probability history charts
Each country page now includes a chart showing the team's Elo rating and tournament-probability trajectory, giving historical context to the current forecast.
- New24 May 2026
Fixtures: Groups and Bracket views added
The fixtures page now offers three view modes — Calendar, Groups, and Bracket — so you can browse the schedule in the format you prefer.
- New24 May 2026
About page and footer rework
A new About page explains the site's data sources, methodology, and research framing; the footer has also been reorganised with clearer links.
- UX24 May 2026
Fixtures: date-grouped calendar view
The fixtures page now organises matches into a scrollable date-grouped calendar timeline, replacing the previous static group-letter layout.
- New23 May 2026
Launch splash with free-browse tiles
New visitors now land on a splash screen with free-access content tiles so you can explore team data before signing in.
- New23 May 2026
Match and country pages: executive summary
A three-zone executive summary now opens every match and country page, highlighting win probability, top scorer outlook, and tournament stage forecast.
- UX23 May 2026
Navigation reorg: Research and Feedback added
The navigation bar now surfaces Research and Feedback links directly alongside Fixtures, Countries, and Posts.
- New23 May 2026
Storylines: narrative cards on team pages
The top-8 predicted teams now show up to three storyline cards on their team page, drawing from squad age, recent form, and tactical data.
- New22 May 2026
Interactive Pro API explorer
Pro Pass holders can now browse and try the full Pro API at /data/api/. Every endpoint has an inline schema, parameter form, and "Run" button so you can shape a request without leaving the page.
- New22 May 2026
New Pro hub — update log + direct feedback
Pro Pass holders get two new surfaces: this page (a running log of what's shipping) and /feedback/, a direct line to the maintainer. Both live under /pro/, alongside the Pro Data landing.
- UX22 May 2026
Pricing flow remembers your intent
If you click "Buy" on a pricing tier while signed out, you're sent through sign-in and dropped straight back into the buy flow afterwards — no second click required.
- UX22 May 2026
Public launch banner on the homepage
Countdown to the 26 May public launch added to the homepage. It self-removes after the launch date.
- UX22 May 2026
Polish — trust strip, /data/, Notable cards
TrustStrip no longer duplicates itself across pages. The /data/ landing now adapts to your tier. "Notable" cards on the homepage are now linkable.
- UX21 May 2026
"What is this table showing?" — inline explainers
Every data table now has a collapsible footer that explains what the columns mean and how the numbers are computed. Click the chevron to expand.
- UX21 May 2026
Sign-in flow surfaces "or create account"
The sign-in screen now makes it explicit that the same magic link works for both returning users and new accounts — no separate sign-up step.
- New21 May 2026
Pro Data tab + /data/ landing page
New top-nav entry for Pro holders pointing to /data/ — a single page that catalogues every dataset and API endpoint available on the Pro tier.
- UX21 May 2026
24h refund strip on Pro CTAs
Every Pro upgrade prompt now carries the 24-hour refund guarantee inline, alongside a single direct-action button. Less reading, clearer commitment.
- UX21 May 2026
Abbreviated metrics link to the glossary
Wherever an abbreviated metric appears (xG, xT, PSxG, EWMA…), clicking it now jumps to its glossary entry. The full term is still shown in a tooltip on hover.
- UX21 May 2026
Branded magic-link sign-in email
Sign-in emails now use a custom template with a clear subject line, so the link is easier to find in a busy inbox.
- New21 May 2026
/glossary/ — every metric defined in one place
New reference page covering every metric used on the site — what it measures, how it's computed, what counts as a meaningful difference. Linked from every abbreviated column header.
- Fix21 May 2026
Data tables scroll cleanly on mobile
Wide data tables no longer break the page layout on phones — they scroll horizontally within their container, with a minimum column width that keeps numbers readable.
- UX21 May 2026
Concrete previews of gated content
Free-tier surfaces now show a real slice of the underlying data before the upgrade prompt — top rows, sample charts, partial tables — so you can see what's behind the gate before deciding.
- New21 May 2026
Dark mode
Site now respects your OS-level light/dark preference automatically. Every page, chart, and data table is themed for both modes.
- New21 May 2026
"Probability moves" card on the homepage
A new homepage card highlights which teams' tournament probabilities have shifted most since the last snapshot — and links straight to the country pages so you can see why.
- UX21 May 2026
Depth gate on /players/ and /scorers/
Free users see the top of every players and scorers list; Pro Pass unlocks the full ranking, all positions, and per-stage breakdowns.
- New21 May 2026
5 new Pro API endpoints + CSV format
Pro API now exposes fixtures, country probabilities, scorers, players, and snapshot history as read-only endpoints. Every route supports `?format=csv` alongside JSON.
- New21 May 2026
Group-finish heatmap on /tournament/
A new heatmap on the tournament page shows the full distribution of group-stage finishes (1st / 2nd / 3rd / out) for every team — not just the modal outcome.
- UX21 May 2026
/forecast/ and /fixtures/ now use a depth gate
Instead of hiding most rows behind the paywall, free users now see every fixture and forecast — Pro Pass unlocks the deeper per-fixture details (lineups, inputs popover, decomposition).
- Fix21 May 2026
Inputs popover no longer clipped by table edges
The "model inputs" popover on the fixtures page now renders in a top-level portal and flips itself when it would overflow the viewport, so it stays fully visible.
- New21 May 2026
/compare/ — side-by-side any two countries
New page that lets you put any two World Cup sides next to each other — group-finish probabilities, knockout odds, predicted XI, recent form, head-to-head.
- UX21 May 2026
Stage-cascade mini-bars on country lists
The /countries/ index and /squads/ contenders list now show a compact bar per side — group exit, R16, QF, SF, F, W — so you can scan the full tournament path at a glance.
- UX21 May 2026
Calibration receipt strip on the homepage
The homepage now surfaces a short "how well-calibrated is this model" strip — recent Brier score and reliability summary — linking to the full methodology page.
- UX21 May 2026
Snapshot timestamp on every prediction page
Each forecast page now shows when its numbers were last refreshed, so you always know how current the snapshot is.
- New21 May 2026
Tactical forecast + probability decomposition per fixture
Every fixture page now carries a tactical-fingerprint forecast and an honest decomposition of where the win/draw/loss probability comes from — base rates, form, lineup, home/altitude/travel.
- New21 May 2026
Head-to-head + group schedule on country pages
Country pages now include direct head-to-head history against the three group opponents, alongside the team's full WC2026 fixture schedule.
- New21 May 2026
Per-fixture writeup wires in travel, workload, coaches
The match-analytics writeup on each fixture page now incorporates travel/rest asymmetry, predicted-squad workload, coach background, and set-piece taker identity.
- UX21 May 2026
Clearer placeholders for gated sections
Free-tier visitors now see a structured placeholder for each gated section (predicted XI, inputs, decomposition) — what's there, what unlocks it — instead of a blank block.
- Fix21 May 2026
Search palette results no longer 404
The ⌘K search palette was returning result URLs that pointed to .html and dropped trailing slashes — both fixed. Excerpts also no longer collapse spaces between words.
- New21 May 2026
Site-wide search — ⌘K palette
Press ⌘K (Ctrl+K on Windows/Linux) anywhere on the site to open a full-text search palette. Indexes every country, fixture, player, doc, and post.
- New21 May 2026
Richer /squads/ and /research/ landing pages
Both hub pages now have proper landings — squads gets a contenders board with stage-cascade bars; research gets a curated entry point into the methodology and per-dataset notes.
- New21 May 2026
Per-fixture match-analytics writeup
Every fixture page now carries a short analytical writeup — what the model sees, where the uncertainty sits, which inputs are doing the work.
- UX21 May 2026
Accessibility baseline — focus, skip link, SVG titles
Visible focus rings on every interactive element, a skip-to-content link at the top of every page, and richer SVG titles on charts for screen readers.
- New21 May 2026
Country pages — last appearance per major tournament
Each country page now lists the team's most recent finish at every major tournament (World Cup, continental championship), with coach and squad-continuity context.
- UX21 May 2026
Pricing tiers rebalanced
Per-player deep dives moved into the Standard tier; Pro is now the API + bulk-data tier. Clearer value at each step.
- UX21 May 2026
Breadcrumbs on every dynamic route
Country, fixture, player, club, match-analysis, post, and doc pages all carry a visible breadcrumb trail now — easier to navigate back up without the browser back button.
- New21 May 2026
Country pages — recent international results
A team's last several internationals (results, scorelines, opponents, dates) now show on its country page, so recent form is visible alongside the model output.
- UX21 May 2026
Hover tooltips on every abbreviated column
Every abbreviated column header in every data table now expands to the full term on hover, so you don't need to leave the page to look up what "PSxG" or "xT" means.
- UX21 May 2026
Brand and navigation polish
Cleaned up the nav wordmark, footer copy, and page-title formatting so the same look applies on every route.
- New21 May 2026
Confidence intervals + counterfactual generator
Tournament probabilities now ship with Monte Carlo confidence intervals, and a counterfactual generator lets you ask "what if Team X drew Y instead?" against the live simulation.
- UX21 May 2026
Forecast moved to the top nav
The Forecast tab now sits in the primary navigation and points at /forecast/ — the canonical place to see the live tournament-wide simulation.
- New21 May 2026
Historical-analogue lookup per side
Each WC2026 side now has a "closest historical analogue" — the most similar team-tournament between 1990 and 2024 by squad shape, form, and rating. Useful sanity-check for the model output.
- New21 May 2026
Ensemble-disagreement decomposition in inputs popover
The match-inputs popover now shows where the ensemble's component models disagree — so when the headline probability is uncertain, you can see which inputs are driving the spread.
- UX21 May 2026
Homepage redesign — 8-card teaser
Replaced the 48-row accordion at the top of the homepage with eight focused cards that each link to a specific surface (forecast, fixtures, players, compare, docs…). Much faster to find what you want.
- New21 May 2026
Penalty shootout deep-dive + sudden-death simulator
Every knockout fixture now has a shootout-specific view — kicker-order advantage, per-shooter probabilities, and a sudden-death simulator you can re-roll.
- New21 May 2026
Injury-aware predicted XI
Predicted lineups now show "Recovering" and "Out" badges next to affected players, with the XI itself adjusted accordingly. Sourced from the D16 injury feed.