Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Goleadores del torneo

P(marca ≥1 gol) — Mundial 2026

Una estimación por jugador del modelo de la probabilidad de que el jugador marque al menos un gol en los partidos que dispute su selección en el torneo 2026. Calculada a partir del ratio goleador reciente a nivel de club de cada jugador, una cifra de minutos esperados derivada de las internacionalidades, una participación ponderada por posición en los goles esperados del equipo, un multiplicador de defensa rival y el número esperado de partidos de la selección según el Monte Carlo del cuadro. La metodología y las limitaciones conocidas de la v0 están documentadas en /docs/methodology/.

2,630 jugadores en 48 selecciones · datos al 2026-05-29

Top 50 por P(marca ≥1)

50 players

#Player · countryFormTeam outlook

Rank1RaphinhaPKBrazilPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)55.3%

Rank2Jonathan DavidPKCanadaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.7 mpP(scores ≥1)47.5%

Rank3Lionel MessiPKArgentinaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)46.9%

Rank4Mikel OyarzabalPKSpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)46.0%

Rank5Erling HaalandPKNorwayPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%

Rank6Cristiano RonaldoPKPortugalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)44.4%

Rank7Folarin BalogunPKUnited StatesPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)43.3%

Rank8Son Heung-minPKSouth KoreaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)42.0%

Rank9Chris WoodPKNew ZealandPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookLong shot3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)39.2%

Rank10Marcus ThuramPKFrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)38.9%

Rank11Ante BudimirPKCroatiaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-84.9 mpP(scores ≥1)38.8%

Rank12James RodríguezPKColombiaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)37.4%

Rank13Raúl JiménezPKMexicoPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)36.2%

Rank14Alexander Sørloth NorwayPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)34.4%

Rank15Kevin De BruynePKBelgiumPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)33.1%

Rank16Jordan AyewPKGhanaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.3 mpP(scores ≥1)32.3%

Rank17Harry Kane EnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)32.0%

Rank18Gabriel JesusBrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)31.7%

Rank19Ferran Torres SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)30.9%

Rank20Ricardo RodriguezPKSwitzerlandPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)30.2%

Rank21Gonçalo Ramos PortugalPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-45.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.8%

Rank22Franck KessiéPKIvory CoastPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.0 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%

Rank23Marcus RashfordPKEnglandPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.6%

Rank24Yoane WissaPKDR CongoPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.4 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%

Rank25Niclas FüllkrugPKGermanyPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)28.6%

Rank26Donyell Malen NetherlandsPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)28.3%

Rank27Vinícius Júnior BrazilPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)28.0%

Rank28Ousmane Dembélé FrancePosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)27.9%

Rank29Antonio SanabriaPKParaguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)27.8%

Rank30Amine GouiriPKAlgeriaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank31Breel Embolo SwitzerlandPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)27.7%

Rank32Sofyan AmrabatPKMoroccoPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.9 mpP(scores ≥1)27.0%

Rank33Omar Marmoush EgyptPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)26.9%

Rank34Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKTurkeyPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.3 mpP(scores ≥1)26.5%

Rank35Mostafa MohamedEgyptPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.4%

Rank36Daichi KamadaPKJapanPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%

Rank37Jürgen LocadiaPKCuraçaoPosFWFormTeam outlookLong shot3.1 mpP(scores ≥1)25.2%

Rank38Luis Díaz ColombiaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.2 mpP(scores ≥1)24.7%

Rank39Marcel SabitzerPKAustriaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)24.3%

Rank40Neymar BrazilPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)24.0%

Rank41Lautaro Martínez ArgentinaPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.8 mpP(scores ≥1)23.3%

Rank42Ermedin Demirović Bosnia and HerzegovinaPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookKnockout3.6 mpP(scores ≥1)22.8%

Rank43Boulaye DiaPKSenegalPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%

Rank44Memphis DepayPKNetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)22.7%

Rank45Bamba Dieng SenegalPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.5 mpP(scores ≥1)21.8%

Rank46Lamine Yamal SpainPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookFinal5.9 mpP(scores ≥1)21.7%

Rank47Darwin Núñez UruguayPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookR164.8 mpP(scores ≥1)21.5%

Rank48Cody Gakpo NetherlandsPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.0 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank49Patrik Schick Czech RepublicPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.1 mpP(scores ≥1)21.4%

Rank50Bradley Barcola FrancePosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-45.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.5%

▸How to read this table— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form: Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook: Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1): Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

Cada fila muestra la probabilidad de marcar ≥1 en el torneo, junto con la perspectiva de la selección (nivel de candidatura y partidos esperados).

Por selección

Jonathan DavidFW

Mikel OyarzabalFW

Erling HaalandFW

Cristiano RonaldoFW

United States43.3%

Folarin BalogunFW

South Korea42.0%

Son Heung-minFW

New Zealand39.2%

Marcus ThuramFW

James RodríguezMF

Raúl JiménezFW

Kevin De BruyneMF

Switzerland30.2%

Ricardo RodriguezDF

Ivory Coast29.6%

Franck KessiéMF

Niclas FüllkrugFW

Netherlands28.3%

Donyell MalenFW

Antonio SanabriaFW

Sofyan AmrabatMF

Omar MarmoushFW

Hakan ÇalhanoğluMF

Jürgen LocadiaFW

Daichi KamadaMF

Marcel SabitzerMF

Bosnia and Herzegovina22.8%

Ermedin DemirovićFW

Darwin NúñezFW

Czech Republic21.4%

Patrik SchickFW

Alexander IsakFW

Cape Verde18.1%

Nuno da CostaFW

Kevin RodríguezFW

Seifeddine JaziriFW

Brandon BorrelloFW

Uzbekistan14.1%

Eldor ShomurodovFW

Alfredo StephensFW

Saudi Arabia12.3%

Abdullah Al-HamdanFW

South Africa12.3%

Evidence MakgopaFW

Aymen HusseinFW

Cada tarjeta muestra al jugador mejor clasificado de la selección por P(marca ≥1). Haz clic para ver la lista completa por selección.

Goleadores del torneo · onthepitch