Tournament
Who wins the 2026 World Cup?
The model's tournament-winner probabilities, group-stage outlook and venue breakdown. For the curated forecast highlights, see the homepage.
48
Countries
12
Groups
16
Venues
34
Tournament day
Tournament winner
Who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Top 12 · model probabilityWho wins each group
UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ host nation
Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.
Group finish distribution
Each group is a 4×4 heatmap. Rows are teams (sorted by P(finish 1st)); columns are within-group positions. Cell intensity is the probability. Heavy left column means a likely group winner; spread across columns means a volatile group.
Group AFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico ★ | 54% | 26% | 13% | 7% |
| Czech Republic | 21% | 30% | 28% | 21% |
| South Korea | 18% | 28% | 30% | 24% |
| South Africa | 7% | 16% | 29% | 48% |
Group BFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 55% | 32% | 11% | 3% |
| Canada ★ | 37% | 41% | 17% | 5% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 7% | 19% | 44% | 31% |
| Qatar | 2% | 8% | 29% | 62% |
Group CFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 63% | 27% | 8% | 1% |
| Morocco | 28% | 44% | 23% | 5% |
| Scotland | 8% | 24% | 49% | 18% |
| Haiti | 1% | 4% | 19% | 77% |
Group DFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States ★ | 35% | 26% | 21% | 18% |
| Turkey | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Paraguay | 21% | 25% | 27% | 28% |
| Australia | 20% | 24% | 27% | 29% |
Group EFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 56% | 30% | 14% | 1% |
| Ecuador | 30% | 39% | 27% | 4% |
| Ivory Coast | 14% | 29% | 47% | 10% |
| Curaçao | 0% | 2% | 13% | 84% |
Group FFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 53% | 27% | 14% | 6% |
| Japan | 27% | 33% | 25% | 15% |
| Sweden | 15% | 25% | 33% | 27% |
| Tunisia | 6% | 15% | 28% | 51% |
Group GFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 64% | 24% | 10% | 2% |
| Iran | 20% | 37% | 31% | 12% |
| Egypt | 14% | 31% | 37% | 17% |
| New Zealand | 2% | 8% | 22% | 68% |
Group HFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 73% | 23% | 4% | 1% |
| Uruguay | 24% | 52% | 18% | 6% |
| Cape Verde | 2% | 13% | 40% | 46% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 12% | 39% | 47% |
Group IFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 61% | 26% | 11% | 2% |
| Norway | 22% | 37% | 31% | 10% |
| Senegal | 16% | 31% | 38% | 15% |
| Iraq | 1% | 6% | 20% | 73% |
Group JFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 69% | 22% | 8% | 1% |
| Austria | 17% | 38% | 32% | 12% |
| Algeria | 12% | 33% | 38% | 17% |
| Jordan | 1% | 7% | 22% | 70% |
Group KFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 52% | 35% | 10% | 3% |
| Colombia | 41% | 41% | 13% | 4% |
| DR Congo | 4% | 13% | 41% | 42% |
| Uzbekistan | 3% | 10% | 36% | 51% |
Group LFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 65% | 28% | 6% | 1% |
| Croatia | 30% | 48% | 17% | 6% |
| Ghana | 3% | 14% | 41% | 41% |
| Panama | 2% | 11% | 36% | 52% |
Confederation breakdown
Qualified teams by confederation
16
UEFA
10
CAF
9
AFC
6
CONCACAF
6
CONMEBOL
1
OFC
Group strength
FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)
Venues
| Stadium | City | Country | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T Stadium | Dallas | USA | 94,000 |
| Estadio Azteca | Mexico City | MEX | 83,000 |
| MetLife Stadium | New York/New Jersey | USA | 82,500 |
| Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta | USA | 75,000 |
| Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City | USA | 73,000 |
| NRG Stadium | Houston | USA | 72,000 |
| Levi's Stadium | San Francisco Bay Area | USA | 71,000 |
| SoFi Stadium | Los Angeles | USA | 70,000 |
| Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia | USA | 69,000 |
| Lumen Field | Seattle | USA | 69,000 |
| Gillette Stadium | Boston | USA | 65,000 |
| Hard Rock Stadium | Miami | USA | 65,000 |
| BC Place | Vancouver | CAN | 54,000 |
| Estadio BBVA | Monterrey | MEX | 53,500 |
| Estadio Akron | Guadalajara | MEX | 48,000 |
| BMO Field | Toronto | CAN | 45,000 |
Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)
AT&T Stadium (USA)
94,000
Estadio Azteca (MEX)
83,000
MetLife Stadium (USA)
82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)
75,000
Arrowhead Stadium (USA)
73,000
NRG Stadium (USA)
72,000
Levi's Stadium (USA)
71,000
SoFi Stadium (USA)
70,000
Lincoln Financial Field (USA)
69,000
Lumen Field (USA)
69,000
Gillette Stadium (USA)
65,000
Hard Rock Stadium (USA)
65,000
BC Place (CAN)
54,000
Estadio BBVA (MEX)
53,500
Estadio Akron (MEX)
48,000
BMO Field (CAN)
45,000