Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournament

2026 FIFA World Cup

Full dashboard. For the curated forecast highlights, see the homepage.

48
Countries
12
Groups
16
Venues
13
Days to kickoff

Tournament winner

Who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Top 12 · model probability
Spain#1
16.7%
Argentina#2
16.3%
Brazil#5
9.4%
France#3
9.0%
Portugal#6
7.9%
England#4
6.5%
Germany#9
5.4%
Colombia#13
4.1%
Netherlands#7
3.7%
Belgium#8
2.9%
Croatia#10
2.8%
Uruguay#16
2.5%
Probabilities are statistical model outputs. See methodology for how the Ensemble is fit, calibrated, and back-tested.

Who wins each group

UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ host nation

Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.

Group finish distribution

Each group is a 4×4 heatmap. Rows are teams (sorted by P(finish 1st)); columns are within-group positions. Cell intensity is the probability — heavy left column means a likely group winner; spread across columns means a volatile group.

Group AFinish distribution
Group A finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Mexico ★61%25%11%3%
Czech Republic18%33%33%16%
South Korea18%33%33%16%
South Africa2%9%23%65%
Group BFinish distribution
Group B finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Switzerland55%35%8%1%
Canada ★40%44%13%3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina4%15%49%33%
Qatar1%6%30%63%
Group CFinish distribution
Group C finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Brazil71%23%6%0%
Morocco22%48%27%3%
Scotland7%27%54%11%
Haiti0%2%13%85%
Group DFinish distribution
Group D finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Turkey31%26%23%19%
United States ★29%26%24%21%
Paraguay22%25%26%27%
Australia18%22%27%33%
Group EFinish distribution
Group E finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Germany56%33%10%1%
Ecuador37%44%18%2%
Ivory Coast7%22%59%13%
Curaçao0%1%14%85%
Group FFinish distribution
Group F finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Netherlands57%27%12%4%
Japan28%36%24%12%
Sweden11%23%36%30%
Tunisia4%13%29%53%
Group GFinish distribution
Group G finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Belgium65%24%9%2%
Iran22%39%28%11%
Egypt12%29%40%19%
New Zealand2%8%23%68%
Group HFinish distribution
Group H finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Spain77%21%2%0%
Uruguay22%64%12%3%
Saudi Arabia1%9%47%44%
Cape Verde0%6%40%54%
Group IFinish distribution
Group I finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
France65%24%10%1%
Norway19%37%35%9%
Senegal16%34%39%11%
Iraq1%4%16%79%
Group JFinish distribution
Group J finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Argentina82%15%3%0%
Austria11%44%31%14%
Algeria6%31%40%23%
Jordan1%11%26%62%
Group KFinish distribution
Group K finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Portugal54%36%8%2%
Colombia42%44%11%3%
Uzbekistan3%12%45%40%
DR Congo1%8%36%55%
Group LFinish distribution
Group L finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
England65%30%4%1%
Croatia32%53%13%3%
Panama2%12%49%37%
Ghana1%6%34%60%

Confederation breakdown

Qualified teams by confederation

16
UEFA
10
CAF
9
AFC
6
CONCACAF
6
CONMEBOL
1
OFC

Group strength

FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)

FIFA rank strip plot for 12 groups (48 teams) — lower rank means stronger team. Strongest group: I (avg rank 17).FIFA rank strip plot for 12 groups (48 teams) — lower rank means stronger team. Strongest group: I (avg rank 17).120406080100ABCDEFGHIJKLGroupFIFA rankMexicoSouth KoreaSouth AfricaSwitzerlandCanadaQatarBrazilMoroccoScotlandHaitiUnited StatesAustraliaParaguayGermanyEcuadorIvory CoastCuraçaoNetherlandsJapanTunisiaBelgiumIranEgyptNew ZealandSpainUruguaySaudi ArabiaCape VerdeFranceSenegalNorwayArgentinaAustriaAlgeriaJordanPortugalColombiaUzbekistanEnglandCroatiaPanamaGhana

Venues

StadiumCityCountryCapacity
AT&T StadiumDallasUSA94,000
Estadio AztecaMexico CityMEX83,000
MetLife StadiumNew York/New JerseyUSA82,500
Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlantaUSA75,000
Arrowhead StadiumKansas CityUSA73,000
NRG StadiumHoustonUSA72,000
Levi's StadiumSan Francisco Bay AreaUSA71,000
SoFi StadiumLos AngelesUSA70,000
Lincoln Financial FieldPhiladelphiaUSA69,000
Lumen FieldSeattleUSA69,000
Gillette StadiumBostonUSA65,000
Hard Rock StadiumMiamiUSA65,000
BC PlaceVancouverCAN54,000
Estadio BBVAMonterreyMEX53,500
Estadio AkronGuadalajaraMEX48,000
BMO FieldTorontoCAN45,000

Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)

AT&T Stadium (USA)
94,000
Estadio Azteca (MEX)
83,000
MetLife Stadium (USA)
82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)
75,000
Arrowhead Stadium (USA)
73,000
NRG Stadium (USA)
72,000
Levi's Stadium (USA)
71,000
SoFi Stadium (USA)
70,000
Lincoln Financial Field (USA)
69,000
Lumen Field (USA)
69,000
Gillette Stadium (USA)
65,000
Hard Rock Stadium (USA)
65,000
BC Place (CAN)
54,000
Estadio BBVA (MEX)
53,500
Estadio Akron (MEX)
48,000
BMO Field (CAN)
45,000