Bosnia and Herzegovina
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group B·FIFA #—
Edin Džeko: 40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final World Cup.
- Rival
- Switzerland (#17)
- Key
- Ermin Bičakčić (DF)
WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12 | Canada | 1–1 | D | Toronto |
| Jun 18 | Switzerland | 1–4 | L | Inglewood |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Bosnia and Herzegovina carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (36th of 48). The squad bridges generations: Edin Džeko (40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Kerim Alajbegović, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, they are projected at 50.4% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Limited recent tournament data is available for Bosnia and Herzegovina's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.
Path to success
In Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected at 50.4% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 15.0%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Edin Džeko across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Insufficient match coverage.
Percentiles position Bosnia and Herzegovina against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group B finish · Bosnia and Herzegovina
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 4.0%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 14.7%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 46.4%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 34.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Bosnia and Herzegovina
, 100,000 sims- 47.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 15.0%R16Round of 16
- 3.6%QFQuarter-final
- 0.6%SFSemi-final
- 0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Bosnia and Herzegovina
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
R32
Round of 32
R16
Round of 16
SF
Semi-final
The squad
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 3/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.333
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 3 of 3 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- St. Pauli1
- Atalanta1
- VfB Stuttgart1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Amar DedićFull-backLikely cover: Arjan Malić · 0.27Sturm Graz0.56gap to repl.
- Ermedin DemirovićStrikerLikely cover: Haris Tabaković · 0.36Borussia Mönchengladbach0.47gap to repl.
- Edin DžekoStrikerLikely cover: Haris Tabaković · 0.36Borussia Mönchengladbach0.33gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 12, 2026 | Canada | Toronto, Canada |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland | Inglewood, United States |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar | Seattle, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Gained 70 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1647.
18 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 10 players observed, 17 events tracked.
Scored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.
1 goalMatch by match
Player ratings (10)
8Jovo Lukić1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.
8Nikola Vasilj1 app · 3 events3 saves8▼
Made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention.
7Sead Kolašinac1 app · 4 events2 blocks1 fouls won1 yellow7▼
Made an astonishing goal-line clearance but received an early yellow card.
7Tarik Muharemović1 app · 2 events1 block1 yellow7▼
Made a crucial defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.
7Nikola Katić1 app · 2 events1 block1 yellow7▼
Made a key defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.
6Amar Memić1 app · 1 events1 shot6▼
Took a free-kick that went over the bar, with no other notable contributions.
6Esmir Bajraktarević1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant period before being substituted without notable distinction.
6Ivan Šunjić1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.
5Ermedin Demirović1 app · 1 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.
5Amar Dedić1 app · 1 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.
Match observations
- gs-003The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating scoring opportunities.
- gs-003Bosnia and Herzegovina took the lead from a set-piece header in the first half.
- gs-003Canada pressed for an equaliser, eventually finding it through a substitute in the second half.
- gs-028The match began with an electric atmosphere, with both sets of supporters creating a vibrant backdrop.
- gs-028Switzerland demonstrated composure in possession, building attacks from midfield.
- gs-028Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted a compact defensive approach, showing discipline to limit clear opportunities for Switzerland.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Nikola Vasilj
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
Bosnia and Herzegovina hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Bosnia and Herzegovina trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1594.0 to 1594.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HItaly | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2026-03-26 | AWales | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-18 | AAustria | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | HRomania | 3–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-12 | AMalta | 4–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-09 | ACyprus | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-09 | HAustria | 1–2 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-06 | ASan Marino | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | ASlovenia | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-06-07 | HSan Marino | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2010 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly |
| Switzerland | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (1–4) · FIFA World Cup |
| Canada | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 2014 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Slovakia · World Cup 2010
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1689) and group draw.
Slovenia · World Cup 2010
Exited at the group stage
Greece · World Cup 1994
Exited at the group stage
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