锦标赛

谁将赢得 2026 世界杯？

模型的夺冠概率、小组赛展望和场地分布。精选预测亮点请参阅首页。

48
参赛国家
12
小组
16
场地
34
赛事第几天

锦标赛冠军

Who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Top 12 · model probability
Spain#1
17.2%
Argentina#2
15.9%
Brazil#3
12.9%
Portugal#4
9.3%
France#5
8.7%
England#6
7.0%
Germany#7
4.8%
Belgium#8
4.6%
Colombia#9
4.0%
Netherlands#10
3.8%
Morocco#11
2.2%
Uruguay#12
1.8%
Probabilities are statistical model outputs. See methodology for how the is fit, calibrated, and back-tested.

各组冠军

UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ 东道主

Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.

小组最终排名分布

每个小组为 4×4 热力图。行是球队（按 P(第一名) 排序）; 列是组内位置。单元格颜色深度为概率: 左列颜色深表示很可能的小组冠军; 颜色均匀分散表示小组赛结果不确定性大。

Group AFinish distribution
Group A finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Mexico ★54%26%13%7%
Czech Republic21%30%28%21%
South Korea18%28%30%24%
South Africa7%16%29%48%
Group BFinish distribution
Group B finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Switzerland55%32%11%3%
Canada ★37%41%17%5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina7%19%44%31%
Qatar2%8%29%62%
Group CFinish distribution
Group C finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Brazil63%27%8%1%
Morocco28%44%23%5%
Scotland8%24%49%18%
Haiti1%4%19%77%
Group DFinish distribution
Group D finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
United States ★35%26%21%18%
Turkey24%25%25%25%
Paraguay21%25%27%28%
Australia20%24%27%29%
Group EFinish distribution
Group E finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Germany56%30%14%1%
Ecuador30%39%27%4%
Ivory Coast14%29%47%10%
Curaçao0%2%13%84%
Group FFinish distribution
Group F finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Netherlands53%27%14%6%
Japan27%33%25%15%
Sweden15%25%33%27%
Tunisia6%15%28%51%
Group GFinish distribution
Group G finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Belgium64%24%10%2%
Iran20%37%31%12%
Egypt14%31%37%17%
New Zealand2%8%22%68%
Group HFinish distribution
Group H finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Spain73%23%4%1%
Uruguay24%52%18%6%
Cape Verde2%13%40%46%
Saudi Arabia2%12%39%47%
Group IFinish distribution
Group I finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
France61%26%11%2%
Norway22%37%31%10%
Senegal16%31%38%15%
Iraq1%6%20%73%
Group JFinish distribution
Group J finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Argentina69%22%8%1%
Austria17%38%32%12%
Algeria12%33%38%17%
Jordan1%7%22%70%
Group KFinish distribution
Group K finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Portugal52%35%10%3%
Colombia41%41%13%4%
DR Congo4%13%41%42%
Uzbekistan3%10%36%51%
Group LFinish distribution
Group L finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
England65%28%6%1%
Croatia30%48%17%6%
Ghana3%14%41%41%
Panama2%11%36%52%

洲际联合会分布

Qualified teams by confederation

16
UEFA
10
CAF
9
AFC
6
CONCACAF
6
CONMEBOL
1
OFC

小组实力

FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)

FIFA rank strip plot for 12 groups (48 teams) — lower rank means stronger team. Strongest group: I (avg rank 17).FIFA rank strip plot for 12 groups (48 teams) — lower rank means stronger team. Strongest group: I (avg rank 17).120406080100ABCDEFGHIJKLGroupFIFA rankMexicoSouth KoreaSouth AfricaSwitzerlandCanadaQatarBrazilMoroccoScotlandHaitiUnited StatesAustraliaParaguayGermanyEcuadorIvory CoastCuraçaoNetherlandsJapanTunisiaBelgiumIranEgyptNew ZealandSpainUruguaySaudi ArabiaCape VerdeFranceSenegalNorwayArgentinaAustriaAlgeriaJordanPortugalColombiaUzbekistanEnglandCroatiaPanamaGhana

比赛场地

StadiumCityCountryCapacity
AT&T StadiumDallasUSA94,000
Estadio AztecaMexico CityMEX83,000
MetLife StadiumNew York/New JerseyUSA82,500
Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlantaUSA75,000
Arrowhead StadiumKansas CityUSA73,000
NRG StadiumHoustonUSA72,000
Levi's StadiumSan Francisco Bay AreaUSA71,000
SoFi StadiumLos AngelesUSA70,000
Lincoln Financial FieldPhiladelphiaUSA69,000
Lumen FieldSeattleUSA69,000
Gillette StadiumBostonUSA65,000
Hard Rock StadiumMiamiUSA65,000
BC PlaceVancouverCAN54,000
Estadio BBVAMonterreyMEX53,500
Estadio AkronGuadalajaraMEX48,000
BMO FieldTorontoCAN45,000

Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)

AT&T Stadium (USA)
94,000
Estadio Azteca (MEX)
83,000
MetLife Stadium (USA)
82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)
75,000
Arrowhead Stadium (USA)
73,000
NRG Stadium (USA)
72,000
Levi's Stadium (USA)
71,000
SoFi Stadium (USA)
70,000
Lincoln Financial Field (USA)
69,000
Lumen Field (USA)
69,000
Gillette Stadium (USA)
65,000
Hard Rock Stadium (USA)
65,000
BC Place (CAN)
54,000
Estadio BBVA (MEX)
53,500
Estadio Akron (MEX)
48,000
BMO Field (CAN)
45,000
谁将赢得 2026 世界杯？— 夺冠概率 · onthepitch