Torneo

¿Quién gana el Mundial 2026?

Las probabilidades de ganar el torneo, la perspectiva de la fase de grupos y el desglose de sedes del modelo. Para los aspectos destacados curados del pronóstico, consulta la página principal.

Selecciones

Grupos

Sedes

Día del torneo

Ganador del torneo

Who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Top 12 · model probability

Spain#1

17.2%

Argentina#2

15.9%

Brazil#3

12.9%

Portugal#4

9.3%

France#5

8.7%

England#6

7.0%

Germany#7

4.8%

Belgium#8

4.6%

Colombia#9

4.0%

Netherlands#10

3.8%

Morocco#11

2.2%

Uruguay#12

1.8%

Quién gana cada grupo

UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ país anfitrión

Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.

Group AWho wins?

Mexico ★#15

54.2%

Czech Republic—

20.5%

South Korea#22

18.2%

South Africa#61

7.1%

Group BWho wins?

Switzerland#17

54.6%

Canada ★#27

36.9%

Bosnia and Herzegovina—

6.6%

Qatar#51

1.9%

Group CWho wins?

Brazil#5

63.4%

Morocco#11

27.7%

Scotland#36

8.5%

Haiti#84

0.5%

Group DWho wins?

United States ★#14

34.7%

Turkey—

24.4%

Paraguay#39

20.8%

Australia#26

20.1%

Group EWho wins?

Germany#9

55.5%

Ecuador#23

30.0%

Ivory Coast#42

14.2%

Curaçao#82

0.3%

Group FWho wins?

Netherlands#7

52.8%

Japan#18

26.5%

Sweden—

14.8%

Tunisia#40

5.9%

Group GWho wins?

Belgium#8

63.9%

Iran#20

20.0%

Egypt#34

14.4%

New Zealand#86

1.7%

Group HWho wins?

Spain#1

72.5%

Uruguay#16

24.0%

Cape Verde#68

1.8%

Saudi Arabia#60

1.7%

Group IWho wins?

France#3

60.7%

Norway#29

22.3%

Senegal#19

15.9%

Iraq—

1.1%

Group JWho wins?

Argentina#2

69.5%

Austria#24

16.8%

Algeria#35

12.4%

Jordan#66

1.3%

Group KWho wins?

Portugal#6

52.5%

Colombia#13

40.9%

DR Congo—

3.8%

Uzbekistan#50

2.7%

Group LWho wins?

England#4

65.0%

Croatia#10

29.5%

Ghana#72

3.2%

Panama#30

2.3%

Distribución de posiciones en el grupo

Cada grupo es un mapa de calor 4×4. Las filas son selecciones (ordenadas por P(terminar 1.°)); las columnas son posiciones dentro del grupo. La intensidad de la celda es la probabilidad: una columna izquierda marcada indica un probable ganador del grupo; distribución a lo largo de las columnas indica un grupo volátil.

Group AFinish distribution

Group A finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mexico ★	54%	26%	13%	7%
Czech Republic	21%	30%	28%	21%
South Korea	18%	28%	30%	24%
South Africa	7%	16%	29%	48%

Group BFinish distribution

Group B finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Switzerland	55%	32%	11%	3%
Canada ★	37%	41%	17%	5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7%	19%	44%	31%
Qatar	2%	8%	29%	62%

Group CFinish distribution

Group C finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Brazil	63%	27%	8%	1%
Morocco	28%	44%	23%	5%
Scotland	8%	24%	49%	18%
Haiti	1%	4%	19%	77%

Group DFinish distribution

Group D finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
United States ★	35%	26%	21%	18%
Turkey	24%	25%	25%	25%
Paraguay	21%	25%	27%	28%
Australia	20%	24%	27%	29%

Group EFinish distribution

Group E finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	56%	30%	14%	1%
Ecuador	30%	39%	27%	4%
Ivory Coast	14%	29%	47%	10%
Curaçao	0%	2%	13%	84%

Group FFinish distribution

Group F finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Netherlands	53%	27%	14%	6%
Japan	27%	33%	25%	15%
Sweden	15%	25%	33%	27%
Tunisia	6%	15%	28%	51%

Group GFinish distribution

Group G finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Belgium	64%	24%	10%	2%
Iran	20%	37%	31%	12%
Egypt	14%	31%	37%	17%
New Zealand	2%	8%	22%	68%

Group HFinish distribution

Group H finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	73%	23%	4%	1%
Uruguay	24%	52%	18%	6%
Cape Verde	2%	13%	40%	46%
Saudi Arabia	2%	12%	39%	47%

Group IFinish distribution

Group I finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
France	61%	26%	11%	2%
Norway	22%	37%	31%	10%
Senegal	16%	31%	38%	15%
Iraq	1%	6%	20%	73%

Group JFinish distribution

Group J finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Argentina	69%	22%	8%	1%
Austria	17%	38%	32%	12%
Algeria	12%	33%	38%	17%
Jordan	1%	7%	22%	70%

Group KFinish distribution

Group K finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Portugal	52%	35%	10%	3%
Colombia	41%	41%	13%	4%
DR Congo	4%	13%	41%	42%
Uzbekistan	3%	10%	36%	51%

Group LFinish distribution

Group L finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
England	65%	28%	6%	1%
Croatia	30%	48%	17%	6%
Ghana	3%	14%	41%	41%
Panama	2%	11%	36%	52%

Desglose por confederación

Qualified teams by confederation

UEFA

CAF

AFC

CONCACAF

CONMEBOL

OFC

Fuerza del grupo

FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)

Sedes

Stadium	City	Country	Capacity
AT&T Stadium	Dallas	USA	94,000
Estadio Azteca	Mexico City	MEX	83,000
MetLife Stadium	New York/New Jersey	USA	82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium	Atlanta	USA	75,000
Arrowhead Stadium	Kansas City	USA	73,000
NRG Stadium	Houston	USA	72,000
Levi's Stadium	San Francisco Bay Area	USA	71,000
SoFi Stadium	Los Angeles	USA	70,000
Lincoln Financial Field	Philadelphia	USA	69,000
Lumen Field	Seattle	USA	69,000
Gillette Stadium	Boston	USA	65,000
Hard Rock Stadium	Miami	USA	65,000
BC Place	Vancouver	CAN	54,000
Estadio BBVA	Monterrey	MEX	53,500
Estadio Akron	Guadalajara	MEX	48,000
BMO Field	Toronto	CAN	45,000

Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)

AT&T Stadium (USA)

94,000

Estadio Azteca (MEX)

83,000

MetLife Stadium (USA)

82,500

Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)

75,000

Arrowhead Stadium (USA)

73,000

NRG Stadium (USA)

72,000

Levi's Stadium (USA)

71,000

SoFi Stadium (USA)

70,000

Lincoln Financial Field (USA)

69,000

Lumen Field (USA)

69,000

Gillette Stadium (USA)

65,000

Hard Rock Stadium (USA)

65,000

BC Place (CAN)

54,000

Estadio BBVA (MEX)

53,500

Estadio Akron (MEX)

48,000

BMO Field (CAN)

45,000