Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Tournoi

Qui remporte la Coupe du Monde 2026 ?

Les probabilités de victoire au tournoi selon le modèle, les perspectives de phase de groupes et la répartition par stade. Pour les faits saillants de la prévision, voir la page d'accueil.

Pays

Groupes

Stades

Jours avant le coup d'envoi

Vainqueur du tournoi

Who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Top 12 · model probability

Argentina#1

17.4%

Spain#2

16.9%

Brazil#3

9.8%

France#4

8.7%

Portugal#5

7.6%

England#6

6.3%

Germany#7

5.2%

Colombia#8

4.4%

Netherlands#9

3.9%

Belgium#10

3.1%

Croatia#11

2.6%

Uruguay#12

2.2%

Qui remporte chaque groupe

UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ host nation

Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.

Group AWho wins?

Mexico ★#15

58.4%

Czech Republic—

19.4%

South Korea#22

19.1%

South Africa#61

3.0%

Group BWho wins?

Switzerland#17

52.3%

Canada ★#27

41.1%

Bosnia and Herzegovina—

5.1%

Qatar#51

1.4%

Group CWho wins?

Brazil#5

67.3%

Morocco#11

23.3%

Scotland#36

9.2%

Haiti#84

0.3%

Group DWho wins?

Turkey—

31.1%

United States ★#14

28.3%

Paraguay#39

21.8%

Australia#26

18.8%

Group EWho wins?

Germany#9

52.9%

Ecuador#23

37.3%

Ivory Coast#42

9.6%

Curaçao#82

0.2%

Group FWho wins?

Netherlands#7

52.6%

Japan#18

30.8%

Sweden—

11.3%

Tunisia#40

5.3%

Group GWho wins?

Belgium#8

61.0%

Iran#20

23.6%

Egypt#34

13.1%

New Zealand#86

2.2%

Group HWho wins?

Spain#1

73.9%

Uruguay#16

23.9%

Saudi Arabia#60

1.4%

Cape Verde#68

0.8%

Group IWho wins?

France#3

59.4%

Norway#29

22.1%

Senegal#19

17.3%

Iraq—

1.1%

Group JWho wins?

Argentina#2

74.9%

Austria#24

14.3%

Algeria#35

9.4%

Jordan#66

1.4%

Group KWho wins?

Portugal#6

51.2%

Colombia#13

42.8%

Uzbekistan#50

3.8%

DR Congo—

2.2%

Group LWho wins?

England#4

62.9%

Croatia#10

32.5%

Panama#30

3.2%

Ghana#72

1.4%

Distribution des classements de groupe

Chaque groupe est une carte de chaleur 4×4. Les lignes sont les équipes (triées par P(finir 1er)) ; les colonnes sont les positions au sein du groupe. L'intensité de la cellule est la probabilité : une colonne de gauche foncée signifie un vainqueur de groupe probable ; une répartition sur les colonnes signifie un groupe volatil.

Group AFinish distribution

Group A finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mexico ★	58%	26%	12%	4%
Czech Republic	19%	32%	32%	17%
South Korea	19%	32%	32%	17%
South Africa	3%	10%	25%	62%

Group BFinish distribution

Group B finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Switzerland	52%	35%	10%	2%
Canada ★	41%	41%	14%	3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	5%	17%	46%	32%
Qatar	1%	7%	29%	63%

Group CFinish distribution

Group C finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Brazil	67%	25%	8%	1%
Morocco	23%	45%	27%	5%
Scotland	9%	28%	49%	14%
Haiti	0%	3%	16%	80%

Group DFinish distribution

Group D finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Turkey	31%	27%	23%	19%
United States ★	28%	26%	24%	22%
Paraguay	22%	25%	27%	27%
Australia	19%	23%	27%	32%

Group EFinish distribution

Group E finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	53%	33%	13%	1%
Ecuador	37%	41%	20%	2%
Ivory Coast	10%	24%	53%	13%
Curaçao	0%	2%	14%	84%

Group FFinish distribution

Group F finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Netherlands	53%	28%	14%	5%
Japan	31%	35%	23%	12%
Sweden	11%	23%	35%	31%
Tunisia	5%	14%	29%	51%

Group GFinish distribution

Group G finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Belgium	61%	25%	11%	3%
Iran	24%	37%	28%	12%
Egypt	13%	28%	37%	21%
New Zealand	2%	9%	24%	64%

Group HFinish distribution

Group H finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	74%	23%	3%	0%
Uruguay	24%	58%	15%	4%
Saudi Arabia	1%	11%	44%	44%
Cape Verde	1%	9%	39%	52%

Group IFinish distribution

Group I finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
France	59%	27%	12%	2%
Norway	22%	36%	32%	10%
Senegal	17%	32%	37%	14%
Iraq	1%	6%	20%	74%

Group JFinish distribution

Group J finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Argentina	75%	19%	5%	1%
Austria	14%	40%	32%	14%
Algeria	9%	32%	38%	21%
Jordan	1%	10%	25%	64%

Group KFinish distribution

Group K finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Portugal	51%	36%	10%	3%
Colombia	43%	41%	13%	4%
Uzbekistan	4%	14%	41%	41%
DR Congo	2%	10%	36%	53%

Group LFinish distribution

Group L finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
England	63%	30%	6%	1%
Croatia	33%	49%	15%	4%
Panama	3%	14%	45%	38%
Ghana	1%	8%	33%	57%

Répartition par confédération

Qualified teams by confederation

UEFA

CAF

AFC

CONCACAF

CONMEBOL

OFC

Force des groupes

FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)

Stades

Stadium	City	Country	Capacity
AT&T Stadium	Dallas	USA	94,000
Estadio Azteca	Mexico City	MEX	83,000
MetLife Stadium	New York/New Jersey	USA	82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium	Atlanta	USA	75,000
Arrowhead Stadium	Kansas City	USA	73,000
NRG Stadium	Houston	USA	72,000
Levi's Stadium	San Francisco Bay Area	USA	71,000
SoFi Stadium	Los Angeles	USA	70,000
Lincoln Financial Field	Philadelphia	USA	69,000
Lumen Field	Seattle	USA	69,000
Gillette Stadium	Boston	USA	65,000
Hard Rock Stadium	Miami	USA	65,000
BC Place	Vancouver	CAN	54,000
Estadio BBVA	Monterrey	MEX	53,500
Estadio Akron	Guadalajara	MEX	48,000
BMO Field	Toronto	CAN	45,000

Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)

AT&T Stadium (USA)

94,000

Estadio Azteca (MEX)

83,000

MetLife Stadium (USA)

82,500

Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)

75,000

Arrowhead Stadium (USA)

73,000

NRG Stadium (USA)

72,000

Levi's Stadium (USA)

71,000

SoFi Stadium (USA)

70,000

Lincoln Financial Field (USA)

69,000

Lumen Field (USA)

69,000

Gillette Stadium (USA)

65,000

Hard Rock Stadium (USA)

65,000

BC Place (CAN)

54,000

Estadio BBVA (MEX)

53,500

Estadio Akron (MEX)

48,000

BMO Field (CAN)

45,000