Saudi Arabia
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0AFC·Group H·FIFA #60
6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al-Hilal — a single-club spine on the international side.
Recent formation: 4-1-4-1 (2 of 3)
- Rival
- Spain (#1)
- Key
- Abdullah Al-Hamdan (FW)
Final squad announced · Saudi Arabia · 2026-06-01
Source: USA Today ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Saudi Arabia carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (37th of 48). Drawn in Group H alongside Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, they are projected at 31.5% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Saudi Arabia under Georgios Donis play a balanced game with 52% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-1-4-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.8). They are selective in their shooting (10.1 per 90).
Path to success
In Group H alongside Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia are projected at 31.5% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Saudi Arabia will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. With Georgios Donis appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Saudi Arabia. Model rates them #42 by tournament-winner probability — 18 places higher than FIFA #60.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 6 recent matches
What to watch: one of the more intense presses in the field.
Percentiles position Saudi Arabia against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group H finish · Saudi Arabia
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 1.6%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 11.8%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 41.9%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 44.7%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Saudi Arabia
, 100,000 sims- 34.9%AdvAdvance from group
- 7.7%R16Round of 16
- 1.8%QFQuarter-final
- 0.3%SFSemi-final
- 0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Saudi Arabia
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
No club-minutes rows on file for any of the projected XI — this team draws its squad from leagues outside our coverage (Big-5 + understat). Cohesion can't be quantified here until additional league data is wired in.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Firas Al-BuraikanStrikerLikely cover: Abdullah Al-Salem · 0.05Al-Qadsiah0.51gap to repl.
- Abdullah Al-HamdanStrikerLikely cover: Abdullah Al-Salem · 0.05Al-Qadsiah0.30gap to repl.
- Salem Al-DawsariWingerLikely cover: Saleh Abu Al-Shamat · 0.03Al-Ahli0.29gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | Uruguay | Miami Gardens, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | Spain | Atlanta, United States |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | Cape Verde | Houston, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al-Hilal — a single-club spine on the international side.
Only 0 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Model rates them #42 by tournament-winner probability — 18 places higher than FIFA #60.
Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Al-Khaleej.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Saudi Arabia
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 27 players observed, 10 events tracked.
Delivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly securing a point for Saudi Arabia.
Match by match
Player ratings (27)
6Mohammed Al-Owais2 apps · 7 events7 saves93▼
Delivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly securing a point for Saudi Arabia.
6Al-Shabat1 app6▼
Registered a shot on goal but had no further notable impact on the match.
5.5Abdulelah Al-Amri2 apps · 3 events2 goals1 yellow74▼
4Firas Al-Buraikan1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Salem Al-Dawsari1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Mohamed Kanno1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Saleh Al-Shehri1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Hassan Al-Tambakti1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Saud Abdulhamid1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Abdullah Al-Hamdan1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Musab Al-Juwayr1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Nasser Al-Dawsari1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Abdullah Al-Khaibari1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Ayman Yahya1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Nawaf Boushal1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Ali Lajami1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Ali Majrashi1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Hassan Kadesh1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Ziyad Al-Johani1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Jehad Thakri1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Saleh Abu Al-Shamat1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Abdullah Al-Salem1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Khalid Al-Ghannam1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
4Moteb Al-Harbi1 app4▼
Was part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat.
3Nawaf Al-Aqidi1 app3▼
As goalkeeper for the losing team, he conceded four goals in a 4-0 defeat.
3Ahmed Al-Kassar1 app3▼
As goalkeeper for the losing team, he conceded four goals in a 4-0 defeat.
Match observations
- gs-016Saudi Arabia secured an early lead from a set-piece, showcasing their effectiveness in dead-ball situations.
- gs-016Uruguay dominated the second half, applying sustained pressure and creating numerous scoring opportunities.
- gs-016The Saudi Arabia goalkeeper was instrumental in earning a point for his team, making several impressive saves against Uruguay's relentless attacks.
- gs-039The video captures the post-match atmosphere outside the stadium, with fans of both Spain and Saudi Arabia departing. The scoreboard overlay indicates a decisive 4-0 victory for Spain over Saudi Arabia. Supporters are seen walking in large groups, some wearing team colours and scarves, reflecting the general mood after the final whistle.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Nawaf Al-Aqidi
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 6 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Saudi Arabia trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1568.0 to 1568.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from <0.1% to <0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ASerbia | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | HEgypt | 0–4 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-12-15 | NJordan | 0–1 | L | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-11 | NPalestine | 2–1 | W | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-08 | NMorocco | 0–1 | L | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-05 | NComoros | 3–1 | W | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-02 | NOman | 2–1 | W | Arab Cup |
| 2025-11-18 | HAlgeria | 0–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-14 | HIvory Coast | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | HIraq | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 4 | 0-0-4 | 2026 — Loss (0–4) · FIFA World Cup |
| Uruguay | 4 | 1-2-1 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Cape Verde | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Cup | 2025 | Quarter-finals | 1-1-2 |
|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Round of 16 | 2-2-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
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