Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
البطولة
من يفوز بكأس العالم 2026؟
احتمالات الفوز بالبطولة من النموذج، ونظرة دور المجموعات، وتفصيل الملاعب. للتوقعات المنسّقة، انظر الصفحة الرئيسية.
48
المنتخبات
12
المجموعات
16
الملاعب
1
يوم حتى الانطلاق
الفائز بالبطولة
Who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Top 12 · model probabilityمن يفوز بكل مجموعة
UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ host nation
Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.
توزيع ترتيب المجموعات
كل مجموعة هي خريطة حرارية 4×4. الصفوف هي المنتخبات (مرتّبة حسب P(الأول))؛ الأعمدة هي المراكز داخل المجموعة. شدة الخلية هي الاحتمال — عمود أيسر ثقيل يعني فائز مجموعة مرجّح؛ انتشار عبر الأعمدة يعني مجموعة متقلبة.
Group AFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico ★ | 59% | 25% | 12% | 4% |
| Czech Republic | 19% | 32% | 32% | 17% |
| South Korea | 19% | 32% | 32% | 17% |
| South Africa | 3% | 10% | 25% | 62% |
Group BFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 52% | 35% | 10% | 2% |
| Canada ★ | 41% | 41% | 14% | 3% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 5% | 16% | 47% | 32% |
| Qatar | 1% | 7% | 29% | 63% |
Group CFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 68% | 24% | 7% | 0% |
| Morocco | 23% | 45% | 27% | 5% |
| Scotland | 9% | 28% | 49% | 14% |
| Haiti | 0% | 3% | 16% | 80% |
Group DFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 31% | 26% | 23% | 20% |
| United States ★ | 28% | 26% | 24% | 22% |
| Paraguay | 22% | 25% | 26% | 27% |
| Australia | 19% | 23% | 27% | 31% |
Group EFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 53% | 33% | 13% | 1% |
| Ecuador | 37% | 41% | 20% | 2% |
| Ivory Coast | 10% | 24% | 53% | 13% |
| Curaçao | 0% | 2% | 14% | 84% |
Group FFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 53% | 28% | 14% | 5% |
| Japan | 30% | 35% | 22% | 12% |
| Sweden | 11% | 23% | 35% | 31% |
| Tunisia | 5% | 14% | 29% | 52% |
Group GFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 61% | 26% | 11% | 3% |
| Iran | 24% | 37% | 28% | 12% |
| Egypt | 13% | 28% | 38% | 21% |
| New Zealand | 2% | 9% | 24% | 64% |
Group HFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 74% | 23% | 3% | 0% |
| Uruguay | 24% | 58% | 14% | 4% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 11% | 44% | 44% |
| Cape Verde | 1% | 8% | 39% | 52% |
Group IFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 60% | 26% | 12% | 2% |
| Norway | 22% | 36% | 32% | 10% |
| Senegal | 17% | 32% | 37% | 14% |
| Iraq | 1% | 5% | 19% | 74% |
Group JFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 75% | 19% | 5% | 1% |
| Austria | 14% | 40% | 31% | 14% |
| Algeria | 9% | 31% | 39% | 21% |
| Jordan | 1% | 10% | 25% | 64% |
Group KFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 52% | 36% | 10% | 2% |
| Colombia | 43% | 41% | 13% | 4% |
| Uzbekistan | 4% | 14% | 42% | 41% |
| DR Congo | 2% | 9% | 35% | 53% |
Group LFinish distribution
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 63% | 30% | 6% | 1% |
| Croatia | 33% | 49% | 15% | 4% |
| Panama | 3% | 14% | 45% | 38% |
| Ghana | 1% | 8% | 34% | 57% |
تفصيل الاتحادات
Qualified teams by confederation
16
UEFA
10
CAF
9
AFC
6
CONCACAF
6
CONMEBOL
1
OFC
قوة المجموعات
FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)
الملاعب
| Stadium | City | Country | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T Stadium | Dallas | USA | 94,000 |
| Estadio Azteca | Mexico City | MEX | 83,000 |
| MetLife Stadium | New York/New Jersey | USA | 82,500 |
| Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta | USA | 75,000 |
| Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City | USA | 73,000 |
| NRG Stadium | Houston | USA | 72,000 |
| Levi's Stadium | San Francisco Bay Area | USA | 71,000 |
| SoFi Stadium | Los Angeles | USA | 70,000 |
| Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia | USA | 69,000 |
| Lumen Field | Seattle | USA | 69,000 |
| Gillette Stadium | Boston | USA | 65,000 |
| Hard Rock Stadium | Miami | USA | 65,000 |
| BC Place | Vancouver | CAN | 54,000 |
| Estadio BBVA | Monterrey | MEX | 53,500 |
| Estadio Akron | Guadalajara | MEX | 48,000 |
| BMO Field | Toronto | CAN | 45,000 |
Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)
AT&T Stadium (USA)
94,000
Estadio Azteca (MEX)
83,000
MetLife Stadium (USA)
82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)
75,000
Arrowhead Stadium (USA)
73,000
NRG Stadium (USA)
72,000
Levi's Stadium (USA)
71,000
SoFi Stadium (USA)
70,000
Lincoln Financial Field (USA)
69,000
Lumen Field (USA)
69,000
Gillette Stadium (USA)
65,000
Hard Rock Stadium (USA)
65,000
BC Place (CAN)
54,000
Estadio BBVA (MEX)
53,500
Estadio Akron (MEX)
48,000
BMO Field (CAN)
45,000