Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

トーナメント

2026ワールドカップを制するのは？

モデルのトーナメント優勝確率、グループステージの見通し、会場別内訳。キュレーションされた予測ハイライトはホームページをご覧ください。

48

出場国

12

グループ

16

会場

1

キックオフまで

トーナメント優勝

Who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Top 12 · model probability

17.5%

16.9%

9.7%

9.0%

7.5%

6.3%

5.1%

4.4%

3.9%

3.0%

2.6%

2.4%

各グループの優勝チーム

UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ host nation

Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.

Group AWho wins?

59.3%

Czech Republic—

18.9%

18.8%

South Africa#61

2.9%

Group BWho wins?

52.1%

41.4%

Bosnia and Herzegovina—

5.2%

1.4%

Group CWho wins?

67.8%

22.7%

9.2%

0.3%

Group DWho wins?

31.1%

United States ★#14

28.1%

21.9%

18.9%

Group EWho wins?

52.9%

37.3%

9.6%

0.2%

Group FWho wins?

53.0%

30.4%

11.3%

5.3%

Group GWho wins?

61.0%

23.6%

13.1%

2.2%

Group HWho wins?

73.9%

24.1%

Saudi Arabia#60

1.2%

0.7%

Group IWho wins?

59.8%

22.1%

17.0%

1.1%

Group JWho wins?

75.4%

14.4%

8.9%

1.4%

Group KWho wins?

51.7%

42.5%

3.7%

2.1%

Group LWho wins?

62.7%

32.7%

3.2%

1.4%

グループ順位分布

各グループは4×4のヒートマップです。行はチーム（P(1位)順）、列はグループ内順位。セルの濃さは確率を示します。左列が濃いほどグループ優勝の可能性が高く、列全体に分散しているほど不確実なグループです。

Group AFinish distribution

Group A finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mexico ★	59%	25%	12%	4%
Czech Republic	19%	32%	32%	17%
South Korea	19%	32%	32%	17%
South Africa	3%	10%	25%	62%

Group BFinish distribution

Group B finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Switzerland	52%	35%	10%	2%
Canada ★	41%	41%	14%	3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	5%	16%	47%	32%
Qatar	1%	7%	29%	63%

Group CFinish distribution

Group C finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Brazil	68%	24%	7%	0%
Morocco	23%	45%	27%	5%
Scotland	9%	28%	49%	14%
Haiti	0%	3%	16%	80%

Group DFinish distribution

Group D finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Turkey	31%	26%	23%	20%
United States ★	28%	26%	24%	22%
Paraguay	22%	25%	26%	27%
Australia	19%	23%	27%	31%

Group EFinish distribution

Group E finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	53%	33%	13%	1%
Ecuador	37%	41%	20%	2%
Ivory Coast	10%	24%	53%	13%
Curaçao	0%	2%	14%	84%

Group FFinish distribution

Group F finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Netherlands	53%	28%	14%	5%
Japan	30%	35%	22%	12%
Sweden	11%	23%	35%	31%
Tunisia	5%	14%	29%	52%

Group GFinish distribution

Group G finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Belgium	61%	26%	11%	3%
Iran	24%	37%	28%	12%
Egypt	13%	28%	38%	21%
New Zealand	2%	9%	24%	64%

Group HFinish distribution

Group H finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	74%	23%	3%	0%
Uruguay	24%	58%	14%	4%
Saudi Arabia	1%	11%	44%	44%
Cape Verde	1%	8%	39%	52%

Group IFinish distribution

Group I finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
France	60%	26%	12%	2%
Norway	22%	36%	32%	10%
Senegal	17%	32%	37%	14%
Iraq	1%	5%	19%	74%

Group JFinish distribution

Group J finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Argentina	75%	19%	5%	1%
Austria	14%	40%	31%	14%
Algeria	9%	31%	39%	21%
Jordan	1%	10%	25%	64%

Group KFinish distribution

Group K finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Portugal	52%	36%	10%	2%
Colombia	43%	41%	13%	4%
Uzbekistan	4%	14%	42%	41%
DR Congo	2%	9%	35%	53%

Group LFinish distribution

Group L finish-distribution probability matrix
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
England	63%	30%	6%	1%
Croatia	33%	49%	15%	4%
Panama	3%	14%	45%	38%
Ghana	1%	8%	34%	57%

大陸連盟別内訳

Qualified teams by confederation

16

UEFA

10

CAF

9

AFC

6

CONCACAF

6

CONMEBOL

1

OFC

グループ強度

FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)

会場

Stadium	City	Country	Capacity
AT&T Stadium	Dallas	USA	94,000
Estadio Azteca	Mexico City	MEX	83,000
MetLife Stadium	New York/New Jersey	USA	82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium	Atlanta	USA	75,000
Arrowhead Stadium	Kansas City	USA	73,000
NRG Stadium	Houston	USA	72,000
Levi's Stadium	San Francisco Bay Area	USA	71,000
SoFi Stadium	Los Angeles	USA	70,000
Lincoln Financial Field	Philadelphia	USA	69,000
Lumen Field	Seattle	USA	69,000
Gillette Stadium	Boston	USA	65,000
Hard Rock Stadium	Miami	USA	65,000
BC Place	Vancouver	CAN	54,000
Estadio BBVA	Monterrey	MEX	53,500
Estadio Akron	Guadalajara	MEX	48,000
BMO Field	Toronto	CAN	45,000

Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)

AT&T Stadium (USA)

94,000

Estadio Azteca (MEX)

83,000

MetLife Stadium (USA)

82,500

Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)

75,000

Arrowhead Stadium (USA)

73,000

NRG Stadium (USA)

72,000

Levi's Stadium (USA)

71,000

SoFi Stadium (USA)

70,000

Lincoln Financial Field (USA)

69,000

Lumen Field (USA)

69,000

Gillette Stadium (USA)

65,000

Hard Rock Stadium (USA)

65,000

BC Place (CAN)

54,000

Estadio BBVA (MEX)

53,500

Estadio Akron (MEX)

48,000

BMO Field (CAN)

45,000

2026ワールドカップを制するのは？: 優勝確率 · onthepitch