Morocco
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CAF·Group C·FIFA #11
Counter-attacking side with Yassine Bounou in goal.
Recent formation: 4-3-3 (6 of 6)
- Rival
- Brazil (#5)
- Key
- Sofyan Amrabat (MF)
Final squad announced · Morocco · 2026-05-26
Source: The New York Times ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Morocco sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.7% tournament probability (13th in the field). Watch for wp-ayyoub-bouaddi-2007-10-02 — 18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group C alongside Brazil, Scotland, Haiti, they are projected at 91.1% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Morocco under Mohamed Ouahbi play a counter attacker game with 46% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3, though they have also used other. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 22.2).
Path to success
Morocco face Brazil, Scotland, Haiti in Group C, with a 91.1% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 25.1%, though reaching the semi-finals (11.4%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Morocco rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. With Mohamed Ouahbi appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.
Controversial take
The model rates Morocco slightly lower than their FIFA ranking implies (a gap of 1.8 percentage points) — a modest divergence but one that reflects differences in how the two systems weight recent form.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Counter-attacking · style profile from 14 recent matches
What to watch: a narrow, central attacking shape (crossing proxy).
Percentiles position Morocco against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group C finish · Morocco
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 24.9%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 45.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 24.0%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 5.5%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Morocco
, 100,000 sims- 88.8%AdvAdvance from group
- 46.3%R16Round of 16
- 25.7%QFQuarter-final
- 12.7%SFSemi-final
- 5.5%FFinal
- 2.3%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Morocco
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 4/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.250
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 75%
- 3 of 4 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Manchester United1
- Paris Saint Germain1
- Fiorentina1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Nayef AguerdCentre-backLikely cover: Chadi Riad · 0.00Crystal Palace0.85gap to repl.
- Issa DiopCentre-backLikely cover: Chadi Riad · 0.00Crystal Palace0.85gap to repl.
- Ayoub El KaabiStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.33gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoGained 80 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1982.
#4 starting-GK rating in the field — 0.94 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Morocco U23.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Morocco
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 11 players observed, 12 events tracked.
Made a crucial save in the second half, contributing significantly to his team's clean sheet.
Match by match
Player ratings (11)
8Yassine Bounou1 app · 1 events1 save8▼
Made a crucial save in the second half, contributing significantly to his team's clean sheet.
7Ismael Saibari2 apps · 3 events1 goal1 shot68▼
7Bilal El Khannouss1 app · 1 events1 header7▼
Contributed to Morocco's attacking set pieces with a header on target that required a save.
7Brahim Díaz1 app · 1 events1 shot7▼
Displayed good movement and skill to create a shot opportunity inside the penalty area.
6Amine Adli1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the match.
6Abde Ezzalzouli1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific notable contributions.
6Ilias Akhomach1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the match.
6Hakim Ziyech1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific notable contributions.
6Eliesse Ben Seghir1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the match.
6Youssef En Nesyri1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific notable contributions.
6Brahim Diaz1 app6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the match.
Match observations
- gs-005The match was a tightly contested affair with both teams demonstrating solid defensive organisation.
- gs-005Neither side managed to break the deadlock, resulting in a goalless draw.
- gs-005Attacking opportunities were limited, with both goalkeepers making key saves to maintain their clean sheets.
- gs-030Morocco secured a 1-0 victory over Scotland in a match that saw both teams create opportunities.
- gs-030Morocco's early goal set the tone, and they continued to threaten throughout the game, particularly with quick runs into the box.
- gs-030Scotland showed resilience, especially in the second half, generating several chances but ultimately failing to find an equalizer.
Statistical profile
Counter AttackerAttack
Defence
GK: Yassine Bounou
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 14 matches (AFCON2023,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Morocco trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1821.0 to 1822.0 (+1.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 1.6% to 2.3% (+0.6pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NParaguay | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | NEcuador | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-01-18 | HSenegal | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-14 | HNigeria | 0–0 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-09 | HCameroon | 2–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-04 | HTanzania | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-29 | HZambia | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-26 | HMali | 1–1 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-21 | HComoros | 2–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-18 | NJordan | 3–2 | W | Arab Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 4 | 1-1-2 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Scotland | 2 | 2-0-0 | 2026 — Win (1–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Haiti | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 4 matches | 3-1-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | 4th place | 3-2-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Ivory Coast · Afcon 2022
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1747) and group draw.
South Africa · Afcon 2015
Exited at the group stage
Cameroon · World Cup 2002
Exited at the group stage
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