Algeria
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CAF·Group J·FIFA #35
Possession-dominant side.
- Rival
- Argentina (#2)
- Key
- Amine Gouiri (FW)
Final squad announced · Algeria · 2026-05-31
Source: Reddit — /r/worldcup ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Algeria carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (27th of 48). The squad bridges generations: Riyad Mahrez (35 at kickoff with 113 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Kilian Belazzoug, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group J alongside Argentina, Austria, Jordan, they are projected at 67.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Algeria under Vladimir Petković play a possession dominant game, holding 68% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. They press intensely (PPDA 11.1, highest in the field). They generate a high volume of shots (14.1 per 90) and rely heavily on set pieces (20% of their xG).
Path to success
In Group J alongside Argentina, Austria, Jordan, Algeria are projected at 67.7% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 21.4%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
To succeed, Algeria must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing minutes for Riyad Mahrez across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
An interesting dimension: Possession-dominant style — possession 0.68 (top quartile).
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Possession-dominant · style profile from 3 recent matches
What to watch: one of the more intense presses in the field.
Percentiles position Algeria against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group J finish · Algeria
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 8.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 32.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 36.8%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 21.7%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Algeria
, 100,000 sims- 66.4%AdvAdvance from group
- 22.9%R16Round of 16
- 9.2%QFQuarter-final
- 3.3%SFSemi-final
- 1.1%FFinal
- 0.3%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Algeria
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.19%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.280
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 80%
- 4 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Lille2
- Nice1
- Wolverhampton Wanderers1
Most-connected club pair
Aïssa Mandi + Nabil Bentaleb — Lille, 2024-25 · 306 shared minutes
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Mohamed AmouraStrikerLikely cover: Amin Chiakha · 0.16Rosenborg0.64gap to repl.
- Amine GouiriStrikerLikely cover: Amin Chiakha · 0.16Rosenborg0.59gap to repl.
- Rayan Aït-NouriFull-backLikely cover: Mehdi Dorval · 0.53Bari0.45gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago19 at kickoff — 0 caps.
Field's #2 defender in the WC2026 pool by composite rating (0.98).
35 at kickoff with 113 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Gained 40 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1855.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Algeria
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 1 match. 3 players observed, 1 events tracked.
Made multiple crucial saves against Messi and Martinez, preventing Algeria from conceding more goals.
Player ratings (3)
7Luca Zidane1 app7▼
Made multiple crucial saves against Messi and Martinez, preventing Algeria from conceding more goals.
6Fares Chaibi1 app6▼
Scored a goal that was subsequently disallowed due to a foul, limiting his overall positive impact.
4Rafik Belghali1 app · 1 events1 yellow4▼
Received a yellow card for a foul, which was his only notable action and a negative contribution.
Statistical profile
Possession DominantAttack
Defence
GK: Anthony Mandrea
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
Thin sample: 2 matches in the open dataset. Read the split as indicative rather than settled.
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 2 matches (AFCON2023). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Algeria trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1743.0 to 1743.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.3% (+0.3pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NUruguay | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | NGuatemala | 7–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-10 | NNigeria | 0–2 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-06 | NDR Congo | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-31 | NEquatorial Guinea | 3–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-28 | NBurkina Faso | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-24 | NSudan | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-12 | NUnited Arab Emirates | 1–1 | D | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-09 | NIraq | 2–0 | W | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-06 | NBahrain | 5–1 | W | Arab Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan | 3 | 2-1-0 | 2026 — Win (2–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Argentina | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2026 — Loss (0–3) · FIFA World Cup |
| Austria | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1982 — Loss (0–2) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 2 matches | 1-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2014 | Round of 16 | 1-1-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Cameroon · World Cup 1998
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1683) and group draw.
Nigeria · World Cup 2002
Exited at the group stage
Tunisia · World Cup 2018
Exited at the group stage
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