Japan
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0AFC·Group F·FIFA #18
Compact low-block side.
- Rival
- Netherlands (#7)
- Key
- Daichi Kamada (MF)
WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | Netherlands | 2–2 | D | Arlington |
| Jun 20 | Tunisia | 4–0 | W | Guadalupe |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Japan sit in the second tier of contenders with a 0.9% tournament probability (18th in the field). Yūto Nagatomo — 39 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group F alongside Netherlands, Tunisia, Sweden, they are projected at 84.9% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Japan under Hajime Moriyasu play a low block game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used other. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 26.7).
Path to success
Japan face Netherlands, Tunisia, Sweden in Group F, with a 84.9% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 17.9%, though reaching the semi-finals (7.7%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Japan will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design. Managing minutes for Yūto Nagatomo across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
One factor to watch: XI averaged 2,620 club minutes in 2024-25 — #2 of 43 in the field. Heavy pre-tournament load on the starting eleven.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Low block · style profile from 8 recent matches
What to watch: a high-tempo game, circulating the ball quickly.
Percentiles position Japan against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group F finish · Japan
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 34.6%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 36.0%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 20.2%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 9.2%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Japan
, 100,000 sims- 86.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 38.1%R16Round of 16
- 20.6%QFQuarter-final
- 9.6%SFSemi-final
- 4.0%FFinal
- 1.6%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Japan
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Predicted squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.200
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 60%
- 3 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Parma Calcio 19131
- Borussia M.Gladbach1
- Freiburg1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Ayase UedaStrikerLikely cover: Yuito Suzuki · 0.31SC Freiburg0.34gap to repl.
- Kōki OgawaStrikerLikely cover: Yuito Suzuki · 0.31SC Freiburg0.14gap to repl.
- Takefusa KuboWingerLikely cover: Keito Nakamura · 0.59Reims0.13gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Netherlands | Arlington, United States |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Tunisia | Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Sweden | Arlington, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago39 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final World Cup.
XI averaged 2,620 club minutes in 2024-25 — #2 of 43 in the field. Heavy pre-tournament load on the starting eleven.
3 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Dallas, Monterrey, Dallas (peak 29.4°C average).
8-year tenure — one of the longest in international football.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Japan
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 13 players observed, 12 events tracked.
Scored a well-placed shot to equalize for Japan.
1 goalMatch by match
Player ratings (13)
8Keito Nakamura1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored a well-placed shot to equalize for Japan.
8Daichi Kamada1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored the crucial opening goal with excellent positioning and a clinical finish.
8Koki Ogawa1 app8▼
Came off the bench to score a vital equalizer for Japan.
8Ritsu Doan1 app8▼
Scored a fantastic second goal with a powerful and accurate shot from outside the box.
7Zion Suzuki2 apps · 2 events2 saves77▼
7Junya Ito2 apps68▼
6.5Ayase Ueda2 apps · 2 events1 goal67▼
6Daizen Maeda1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.
6Takefusa Kubo1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.
6Takehiro Tomiyasu1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact.
6Tsuyoshi Watanabe1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant portion of the match without any specific mentions.
6Kento Shiogai1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact.
6Ao Tanaka1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Contributed to Japan's offensive efforts with a shot from distance that was saved.
Match observations
- gs-011The match was a hard-fought contest with both teams displaying strong attacking intent.
- gs-011Netherlands gained the lead twice, first through a header from Virgil van Dijk and then a strike from Crysencio Summerville.
- gs-011Japan showed resilience, equalising on both occasions with goals from Keito Nakamura and Koki Ogawa.
- gs-036Japan delivered a dominant performance, securing a comprehensive 4-0 victory over Tunisia.
- gs-036The match saw Japan's attacking players display clinical finishing, converting their chances effectively.
- gs-036Tunisia's goalkeeper, Mouez Dahmen, was a standout performer for his side, making numerous crucial saves to limit the scoreline.
Statistical profile
Low BlockAttack
Defence
GK: Zion Suzuki
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: moderate
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 8 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Japan trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1904.0 to 1904.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.8% to 1.6% (+0.8pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | AEngland | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | AScotland | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | HBolivia | 3–0 | W | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-11-14 | HGhana | 2–0 | W | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-10-14 | HBrazil | 3–2 | W | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-10-10 | HParaguay | 2–2 | D | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-09-09 | AUnited States | 0–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-09-06 | NMexico | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-06-10 | HIndonesia | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | AAustralia | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 6 | 5-0-1 | 2026 — Win (4–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Netherlands | 4 | 0-2-2 | 2026 — Draw (2–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| Sweden | 4 | 0-2-2 | 2002 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 3-0-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 2-1-1 |
|
| Copa América | 2019 | Group stage | 0-2-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
South Korea · World Cup 2022
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1884) and group draw.
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