Qatar
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0AFC·Group B·FIFA #51
Compact low-block side with an Al-Duhail-heavy spine.
- Rival
- Switzerland (#17)
- Key
- Akram Afif (FW)
Final squad announced · Qatar · 2026-06-02
Source: USA Today ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | Switzerland | 1–1 | D | Santa Clara |
| Jun 18 | Canada | 0–6 | L | Vancouver |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Qatar carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (42nd of 48). The squad bridges generations: Hassan Al-Haydos (35 at kickoff with 184 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Tahsin Jamshid, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, they are projected at 19.1% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Qatar under Julen Lopetegui play a low block game, with just 43% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 5-3-2, though they have also used other. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 35.0). They are selective in their shooting (6.2 per 90).
Path to success
In Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar are projected at 19.1% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Qatar will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design. Managing minutes for Hassan Al-Haydos across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Qatar broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Low block · style profile from 3 recent matches
What to watch: a more passive press, sitting off the ball.
Percentiles position Qatar against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group B finish · Qatar
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 1.5%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 6.9%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 31.5%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 60.2%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Qatar
, 100,000 sims- 24.1%AdvAdvance from group
- 5.8%R16Round of 16
- 1.1%QFQuarter-final
- 0.1%SFSemi-final
- <0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Qatar
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
The squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
No club-minutes rows on file for any of the projected XI — this team draws its squad from leagues outside our coverage (Big-5 + understat). Cohesion can't be quantified here until additional league data is wired in.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Almoez AliStrikerLikely cover: Ahmed Alaaeldin · 0.13Al-Rayyan0.36gap to repl.
- Lucas MendesCentre-backLikely cover: Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain · 0.02Al-Arabi0.26gap to repl.
- Meshaal BarshamGoalkeeperLikely cover: Salah Zakaria · 0.30Al-Duhail0.17gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 13, 2026 | Switzerland | Santa Clara, United States |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | Canada | Vancouver, Canada |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Seattle, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoLost 106 international Elo points between Nov 2024 and Dec 2025 — rating now 1569 (no fixtures since).
6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al-Duhail — a single-club spine on the international side.
Only 0 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
35 at kickoff with 184 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Qatar
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 15 players observed, 36 events tracked.
Made numerous crucial saves to keep his team in the game, despite conceding a penalty and receiving a yellow card.
Match by match
Player ratings (15)
8Mahmud Abunada1 app · 11 events9 saves1 yellow8▼
Made numerous crucial saves to keep his team in the game, despite conceding a penalty and receiving a yellow card.
7Boualem Khoukhi1 app · 4 events1 goal1 header1 yellow7▼
Scored a dramatic late equalizer but also received a yellow card.
6Ahmed Alaaeldin1 app · 2 events1 shot6▼
Came on as a substitute and had a shot that went wide.
6Karim Boudiaf1 app · 2 events6▼
Entered as a substitute and committed a foul.
6Assim Madibo1 app · 2 events6▼
Committed a foul before being substituted.
6Akram Afif1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Had an early shot on target but otherwise had no significant impact.
6Pedro Miguel1 app · 1 events6▼
Committed a foul during his time on the pitch.
6Ahmed Fathy1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute without making a notable impact.
6Yusuf Abdurisag1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for part of the match without making a significant impact.
6Mohamed Al-Mannai1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute without making a notable impact.
6Ayoub Al-Oui1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for part of the match without making a significant impact.
6Hassan Alhaydos1 app6▼
Came on as a late substitute without making a notable impact.
5Edmilson Junior1 app · 3 events2 shots (1 on target)5▼
Failed to convert two significant scoring opportunities.
4Jassem Gaber1 app · 5 events2 yellow4▼
Received two yellow cards for fouls, leading to his dismissal.
2Homam Ahmed1 app · 1 events1 red2▼
Received a red card for a foul, which severely hampered Qatar's defensive efforts and morale for the majority of the match.
Match observations
- gs-004The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating opportunities. Switzerland initially gained a lead from a penalty, but Qatar fought back to secure a late equaliser.
- gs-004Qatar's goalkeeper, Mahmoud Abunada, delivered a strong performance, making numerous saves to keep his team in contention throughout the game.
- gs-004The game saw a dramatic finish, with Qatar scoring in stoppage time to level the score, leading to jubilant celebrations from their players and fans.
- gs-027Canada delivered a commanding performance, securing a comprehensive victory with multiple goals.
- gs-027The match was characterised by Canada's relentless attack and Qatar's struggles to contain them, exacerbated by a red card.
- gs-027The home crowd was in full voice, celebrating each goal as Canada dominated proceedings.
Statistical profile
Low BlockAttack
Defence
GK: Meshaal Barsham
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
Thin sample: 3 matches in the open dataset. Read the split as indicative rather than settled.
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 3 matches (WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Qatar trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1425.0 to 1425.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | HTunisia | 0–3 | L | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-04 | HSyria | 1–1 | D | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-01 | HPalestine | 0–1 | L | Arab Cup |
| 2025-11-17 | HZimbabwe | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | HUnited Arab Emirates | 2–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-08 | HOman | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-07 | HRussia | 1–4 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-09-03 | HBahrain | 2–2 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-08-24 | HLebanon | 2–2 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-06-10 | AUzbekistan | 0–3 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 1-1-0 | 2010 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly |
| Canada | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2026 — Loss (0–6) · FIFA World Cup |
| Switzerland | 2 | 1-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Champion | 6-1-0 |
|
| Gold Cup | 2023 | Quarter-finals | 1-1-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 0-0-3 |
|
| Copa América | 2019 | Group stage | 0-1-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Turkmenistan · Asian Cup 2019
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1399) and group draw.
Indonesia · Asian Cup 2024
Exited at the round of 16
Indonesia · Asian Cup 1996
Exited at the group stage
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