Curaçao
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CONCACAF·Group E·FIFA #82
Model rates them #48 by tournament-winner probability — 34 places higher than FIFA #82.
- Rival
- Germany (#9)
- Key
- Jürgen Locadia (FW)
WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Curaçao carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (44th of 48). Drawn in Group E alongside Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, they are projected at 5.3% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Limited recent tournament data is available for Curaçao's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.
Path to success
In Group E alongside Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao are projected at 5.3% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Curaçao will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. With Fred Rutten appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Curaçao. Model rates them #48 by tournament-winner probability — 34 places higher than FIFA #82.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Curaçao. Insufficient match coverage.
Percentiles position Curaçao against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group E finish · Curaçao
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 0.4%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 2.7%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 15.1%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 81.7%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Curaçao
, 100,000 sims- 9.8%AdvAdvance from group
- 1.7%R16Round of 16
- 0.2%QFQuarter-final
- <0.1%SFSemi-final
- <0.1%FFinal
- 0.0%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Curaçao
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Predicted squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
No club-minutes rows on file for any of the projected XI — this team draws its squad from leagues outside our coverage (Big-5 + understat). Cohesion can't be quantified here until additional league data is wired in.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Godfried RoemeratoeDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Kevin Felida · 0.05Den Bosch0.14gap to repl.
- Eloy RoomGoalkeeperLikely cover: Trevor Doornbusch · 0.06VVV-Venlo0.12gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Germany | Houston, United States |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Ecuador | Kansas City, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Ivory Coast | Philadelphia, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoModel rates them #48 by tournament-winner probability — 34 places higher than FIFA #82.
Gained 88 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1614.
Only 1 of 24 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from PSV.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Curaçao
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 8 players observed, 21 events tracked.
Scored a historic goal for Curaçao, marking a significant moment for his nation.
1 goalMatch by match
Player ratings (8)
8Livano Comenencia1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored a historic goal for Curaçao, marking a significant moment for his nation.
6Eloy Room1 app · 13 events13 saves6▼
Despite conceding seven goals, he made numerous crucial saves that prevented an even larger deficit for his team.
6Jürgen Locadia1 app · 2 events1 fouls won6▼
Drew a foul for his team before being substituted in the second half.
6Juninho Bacuna1 app · 1 events1 shot6▼
Had one shot that went wide but did not otherwise impact the game.
6Leandro Bacuna1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Had a free kick saved but otherwise had no significant impact.
6Jearl Margaritha1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no significant impact on the match.
6Tahith Chong1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for most of the match without any notable contributions.
6Gervane Kastaneer1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a late substitute and had no significant actions.
Match observations
- gs-009Germany secured a dominant victory over Curaçao in a high-scoring encounter. The match saw Germany's attacking quality shine through, with multiple players contributing to the goal tally.
- gs-009Curaçao, despite being significant underdogs, managed to score a historic goal, briefly levelling the score and igniting celebrations among their fans. Their goalkeeper, Eloy Room, was particularly busy, making several important stops.
- gs-009Germany maintained control for large portions of the match, especially in the second half, creating numerous opportunities and demonstrating their clinical finishing. The atmosphere in the stadium was lively, with both sets of supporters passionately backing their teams.
- gs-034Curacao, making their first appearance at a FIFA World Cup, created several attacking opportunities throughout the contest.
- gs-034Despite their efforts, Curacao struggled with their finishing, failing to convert their chances into goals.
- gs-034Ecuador's goalkeeper played a pivotal role, making a significant save to keep the score level in a tightly contested affair.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Eloy Room
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
Curaçao hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Curaçao trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1436.0 to 1436.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to 0.0% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | AAustralia | 1–5 | L | FIFA Series |
| 2026-03-27 | NChina PR | 0–2 | L | FIFA Series |
| 2025-11-18 | AJamaica | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | ABermuda | 7–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | HTrinidad and Tobago | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HJamaica | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-09 | HBermuda | 3–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-05 | ATrinidad and Tobago | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-24 | NHonduras | 1–2 | L | Gold Cup |
| 2025-06-21 | NCanada | 1–1 | D | Gold Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (0–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Germany | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (1–7) · FIFA World Cup |
| Ivory Coast | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Cup | 2025 | Group stage | 0-2-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Haiti · Copa América 2016
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1609) and group draw.
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