Uzbekistan
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0AFC·Group K·FIFA #50
Model rates them #33 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #50.
- Rival
- Portugal (#6)
- Key
- Eldor Shomurodov (FW)
Final squad announced · Uzbekistan · 2026-06-02
Source: beIN SPORTS ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Uzbekistan carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (34th of 48). Drawn in Group K alongside Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, they are projected at 38.8% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Limited recent tournament data is available for Uzbekistan's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.
Path to success
In Group K alongside Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan are projected at 38.8% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Uzbekistan will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Uzbekistan. Model rates them #33 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #50.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Uzbekistan. Insufficient match coverage.
Percentiles position Uzbekistan against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group K finish · Uzbekistan
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 3.7%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 13.0%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 40.9%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 42.4%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Uzbekistan
, 100,000 sims- 40.4%AdvAdvance from group
- 12.8%R16Round of 16
- 4.5%QFQuarter-final
- 1.4%SFSemi-final
- 0.4%FFinal
- 0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Uzbekistan
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 1/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 1 of 1 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Roma1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Abdukodir KhusanovCentre-backLikely cover: Umar Eshmurodov · 0.28Nasaf0.53gap to repl.
- Eldor ShomurodovStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.22gap to repl.
- Odiljon HamrobekovDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Abdulla Abdullaev · 0.31Dibba Al Fujairah0.03gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoModel rates them #33 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #50.
Only 1 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Travels 35,992 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
Converted 4 of 5 career penalties (80%) — a reliable side from the spot in knockouts.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Uzbekistan
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 1 match. 1 players observed, 0 events tracked.
Despite conceding three goals, he made several crucial saves that kept Uzbekistan in the game for extended periods.
Player ratings (1)
7Utkir Yusupov1 app7▼
Despite conceding three goals, he made several crucial saves that kept Uzbekistan in the game for extended periods.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Utkir Yusupov
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
Uzbekistan hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Uzbekistan trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1727.0 to 1727.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from <0.1% to 0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | HVenezuela | 0–0 | D | FIFA Series |
| 2026-03-27 | HGabon | 3–1 | W | FIFA Series |
| 2026-01-26 | NChina PR | 2–2 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NIran | 0–0 | D | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-11-14 | NEgypt | 2–0 | W | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-10-13 | NUruguay | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | HKuwait | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-06-10 | HQatar | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | AUnited Arab Emirates | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-03-25 | AIran | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (1–3) · FIFA World Cup |
| Portugal | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (0–5) · FIFA World Cup |
| DR Congo | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 2-3-0 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Oman · Asian Cup 2004
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1663) and group draw.
Saudi Arabia · World Cup 1998
Exited at the group stage
Bahrain · Asian Cup 2015
Exited at the group stage
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