Germany
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group E·FIFA #9
Possession-dominant side missing Florian Wirtz through injury, with a Bayern Munich-heavy spine.
Recent formation: 4-2-3-1 (3 of 3)
- Rival
- Ecuador (#23)
- Key
- Niclas Füllkrug (FW)
Final squad announced · Germany · 2026-05-30
Source: Yahoo Sports ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | Curaçao | 7–1 | W | Houston |
| Jun 20 | Ivory Coast | 2–1 | W | Toronto |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Germany are rated at 5.2% to win the tournament, placing them 7th in the field. A key storyline is the fitness of Florian Wirtz — stomach problems, no expected return. Drawn in Group E alongside Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao, they are projected at 98.5% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Germany under Julian Nagelsmann play a possession dominant game, holding 64% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.8) and build patiently through midfield with 8.6 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (17.4 per 90).
Path to success
Their route begins in Group E with Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao, where the model projects a 55.0% chance of finishing top and 98.5% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (66.7%), quarter-finals (37.3%), semi-finals (22.3%), the final (11.1%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.
What they must execute
To succeed, Germany must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing the fitness of Florian Wirtz could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Germany broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Possession-dominant · style profile from 15 recent matches
What to watch: patient, multi-pass build-up.
Percentiles position Germany against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group E finish · Germany
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 52.5%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 32.5%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 13.7%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 1.4%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Germany
, 100,000 sims- 96.9%AdvAdvance from group
- 63.6%R16Round of 16
- 35.2%QFQuarter-final
- 20.7%SFSemi-final
- 10.4%FFinal
- 5.0%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Germany
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 3.06%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.124
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 45%
- 5 of 11 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Bayern Munich2
- VfB Stuttgart2
- Barcelona1
Most-connected club pair
Leroy Sané + Leon Goretzka — Bayern Munich, 2023-24 · 3,442 shared minutes
Show next 1
- Nick Woltemade + Deniz Undav — VfB Stuttgart, 2024-25 · 1,604 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Deniz UndavStrikerLikely cover: Maximilian Beier · 0.68Borussia Dortmund0.25gap to repl.
- Leroy SanéWingerLikely cover: Jamie Leweling · 0.73VfB Stuttgart0.18gap to repl.
- Kai HavertzStrikerLikely cover: Maximilian Beier · 0.68Borussia Dortmund0.17gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao | Houston, United States |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast | Toronto, Canada |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador | East Rutherford, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoStomach problems, no expected return. Composite 0.98 — would have been a likely starter.
40 at kickoff with 124 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
7 of 24 predicted-squad players play their club football for Bayern Munich — a single-club spine on the international side.
Squad averages 2.13 xG per match across club football last season — #1 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (22 of 24 players matched to a known club).
Form & track record
Video analysis: Germany
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 15 players observed, 46 events tracked.
Came off the bench to score two decisive goals, including the equalizer and winner, completely turning the match around for Germany.
2 goalsMatch by match
Player ratings (15)
9Deniz Undav1 app · 3 events2 goals1 header9▼
Came off the bench to score two decisive goals, including the equalizer and winner, completely turning the match around for Germany.
8Kai Havertz2 apps · 7 events2 goals5 shots (4 on target)97▼
Scored two goals, including a penalty, and was a constant threat in attack throughout the match.
8Denis Undav1 app · 6 events1 goal4 shots (4 on target)8▼
Came on as a substitute and quickly scored a goal, maintaining his impressive scoring run.
8Felix Nmecha1 app · 5 events1 goal2 shots1 fouls won8▼
Scored an early goal and earned a penalty, significantly contributing to Germany's attack.
8Jamal Musiala1 app · 3 events1 goal1 shot (1 on target)1 fouls won8▼
Scored a sensational goal and consistently troubled the opposition defense with his dribbling and vision.
8Nico Schlotterbeck1 app · 3 events1 goal2 shots (2 on target)8▼
Scored a vital header to regain Germany's lead, showcasing his aerial ability.
8Nathaniel Brown1 app · 2 events1 goal1 shot (1 on target)8▼
Scored a goal and consistently provided an attacking threat from the left flank.
6.5Leroy Sané2 apps · 5 events4 shots67▼
6.5Florian Wirtz2 apps · 3 events2 shots1 fouls won67▼
6Leon Goretzka1 app · 3 events2 shots (1 on target)6▼
Had a couple of shots but did not make a decisive impact on the game.
6Aleksandar Pavlović1 app · 1 events1 shot6▼
Had one shot blocked but otherwise had no significant impact.
6Joshua Kimmich1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for a significant portion of the match without any notable contributions.
6Waldemar Anton1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a late substitute and had no significant actions.
6Manuel Neuer1 app · 1 events1 save6▼
Made one save but was otherwise not heavily tested in a dominant German performance.
5Jonathan Tah1 app · 2 events5▼
Conceded a foul leading to a free kick for the opposition before being substituted.
Match observations
- gs-009Germany secured a dominant victory over Curaçao in a high-scoring encounter. The match saw Germany's attacking quality shine through, with multiple players contributing to the goal tally.
- gs-009Curaçao, despite being significant underdogs, managed to score a historic goal, briefly levelling the score and igniting celebrations among their fans. Their goalkeeper, Eloy Room, was particularly busy, making several important stops.
- gs-009Germany maintained control for large portions of the match, especially in the second half, creating numerous opportunities and demonstrating their clinical finishing. The atmosphere in the stadium was lively, with both sets of supporters passionately backing their teams.
- gs-033The match began with Germany showing early attacking intent, but Ivory Coast's goalkeeper Fofana was in fine form.
- gs-033Ivory Coast took a surprising lead, but Germany responded with sustained pressure and several attacking movements.
- gs-033The game featured two disallowed goals for Germany, both due to fouls, highlighting the physical nature of the contest.
Statistical profile
Possession DominantAttack
Defence
GK: Alexander Nübel
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 15 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Germany trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1923.0 to 1923.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 4.3% to 5.0% (+0.8pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | HGhana | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | ASwitzerland | 4–3 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-17 | HSlovakia | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-14 | ALuxembourg | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-13 | ANorthern Ireland | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HLuxembourg | 4–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-07 | HNorthern Ireland | 3–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | ASlovakia | 0–2 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-08 | HFrance | 0–2 | L | UEFA Nations League |
| 2025-06-04 | HPortugal | 1–2 | L | UEFA Nations League |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 2 | 2-0-0 | 2013 — Win (4–2) · Friendly |
| Ivory Coast | 2 | 1-1-0 | 2026 — Win (2–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Curaçao | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2026 — Win (7–1) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 3-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
England · Euro 2024
Finished runner-up
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2044) and group draw.
Spain · Euro 2024
Won the tournament
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