Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Turnuva

2026 Dünya Kupası'nı kim kazanır?

Modelin turnuva şampiyonluğu olasılıkları, grup aşaması görünümü ve stadyum dağılımı. Düzenlenmiş tahmin öne çıkanları için ana sayfaya bakın.

48
Ülkeler
12
Gruplar
16
Stadyumlar
1
Başlama vuruşuna gün

Turnuva şampiyonu

Who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Top 12 · model probability
Argentina#1
17.5%
Spain#2
16.9%
Brazil#3
9.7%
France#4
9.0%
Portugal#5
7.5%
England#6
6.3%
Germany#7
5.1%
Colombia#8
4.4%
Netherlands#9
3.9%
Belgium#10
3.0%
Croatia#11
2.6%
Uruguay#12
2.4%
Probabilities are statistical model outputs. See methodology for how the is fit, calibrated, and back-tested.

Her grubu kim kazanır

UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFAFCCAFOFC★ host nation

Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.

Grup bitiş dağılımı

Her grup 4×4 ısı haritasıdır. Satırlar takımlardır (P(1. bitirme) sırasına göre); sütunlar grup içi sıralamadır. Hücre yoğunluğu olasılıktır: koyu sol sütun olası grup birincisi demektir; sütunlara yayılmış ise değişken bir grup demektir.

Group AFinish distribution
Group A finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Mexico ★59%25%12%4%
Czech Republic19%32%32%17%
South Korea19%32%32%17%
South Africa3%10%25%62%
Group BFinish distribution
Group B finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Switzerland52%35%10%2%
Canada ★41%41%14%3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina5%16%47%32%
Qatar1%7%29%63%
Group CFinish distribution
Group C finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Brazil68%24%7%0%
Morocco23%45%27%5%
Scotland9%28%49%14%
Haiti0%3%16%80%
Group DFinish distribution
Group D finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Turkey31%26%23%20%
United States ★28%26%24%22%
Paraguay22%25%26%27%
Australia19%23%27%31%
Group EFinish distribution
Group E finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Germany53%33%13%1%
Ecuador37%41%20%2%
Ivory Coast10%24%53%13%
Curaçao0%2%14%84%
Group FFinish distribution
Group F finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Netherlands53%28%14%5%
Japan30%35%22%12%
Sweden11%23%35%31%
Tunisia5%14%29%52%
Group GFinish distribution
Group G finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Belgium61%26%11%3%
Iran24%37%28%12%
Egypt13%28%38%21%
New Zealand2%9%24%64%
Group HFinish distribution
Group H finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Spain74%23%3%0%
Uruguay24%58%14%4%
Saudi Arabia1%11%44%44%
Cape Verde1%8%39%52%
Group IFinish distribution
Group I finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
France60%26%12%2%
Norway22%36%32%10%
Senegal17%32%37%14%
Iraq1%5%19%74%
Group JFinish distribution
Group J finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Argentina75%19%5%1%
Austria14%40%31%14%
Algeria9%31%39%21%
Jordan1%10%25%64%
Group KFinish distribution
Group K finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
Portugal52%36%10%2%
Colombia43%41%13%4%
Uzbekistan4%14%42%41%
DR Congo2%9%35%53%
Group LFinish distribution
Group L finish-distribution probability matrix
Team1st2nd3rd4th
England63%30%6%1%
Croatia33%49%15%4%
Panama3%14%45%38%
Ghana1%8%34%57%

Konfederasyon dağılımı

Qualified teams by confederation

16
UEFA
10
CAF
9
AFC
6
CONCACAF
6
CONMEBOL
1
OFC

Grup gücü

FIFA rank distribution per group (lower = stronger; dashed line = group average)

FIFA rank strip plot for 12 groups (48 teams) — lower rank means stronger team. Strongest group: I (avg rank 17).FIFA rank strip plot for 12 groups (48 teams) — lower rank means stronger team. Strongest group: I (avg rank 17).120406080100ABCDEFGHIJKLGroupFIFA rankMexicoSouth KoreaSouth AfricaSwitzerlandCanadaQatarBrazilMoroccoScotlandHaitiUnited StatesAustraliaParaguayGermanyEcuadorIvory CoastCuraçaoNetherlandsJapanTunisiaBelgiumIranEgyptNew ZealandSpainUruguaySaudi ArabiaCape VerdeFranceSenegalNorwayArgentinaAustriaAlgeriaJordanPortugalColombiaUzbekistanEnglandCroatiaPanamaGhana

Stadyumlar

StadiumCityCountryCapacity
AT&T StadiumDallasUSA94,000
Estadio AztecaMexico CityMEX83,000
MetLife StadiumNew York/New JerseyUSA82,500
Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlantaUSA75,000
Arrowhead StadiumKansas CityUSA73,000
NRG StadiumHoustonUSA72,000
Levi's StadiumSan Francisco Bay AreaUSA71,000
SoFi StadiumLos AngelesUSA70,000
Lincoln Financial FieldPhiladelphiaUSA69,000
Lumen FieldSeattleUSA69,000
Gillette StadiumBostonUSA65,000
Hard Rock StadiumMiamiUSA65,000
BC PlaceVancouverCAN54,000
Estadio BBVAMonterreyMEX53,500
Estadio AkronGuadalajaraMEX48,000
BMO FieldTorontoCAN45,000

Venues by seating capacity (USA blue · MEX red · CAN green)

AT&T Stadium (USA)
94,000
Estadio Azteca (MEX)
83,000
MetLife Stadium (USA)
82,500
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (USA)
75,000
Arrowhead Stadium (USA)
73,000
NRG Stadium (USA)
72,000
Levi's Stadium (USA)
71,000
SoFi Stadium (USA)
70,000
Lincoln Financial Field (USA)
69,000
Lumen Field (USA)
69,000
Gillette Stadium (USA)
65,000
Hard Rock Stadium (USA)
65,000
BC Place (CAN)
54,000
Estadio BBVA (MEX)
53,500
Estadio Akron (MEX)
48,000
BMO Field (CAN)
45,000
2026 Dünya Kupası'nı kim kazanır? Şampiyonluk olasılıkları · onthepitch