South Korea

Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0

AFC·Group A·FIFA #22

R16 contender

Counter-attacking side.

Recent formation: 4-2-3-1 (2 of 4)

Rival: Mexico (#15)
Key: Son Heung-min (FW)

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Final squad announced · South Korea · 2026-05-31

Source: The Korea Herald ↗

WC2026 results

Record1W · 0D · 1L

Goals2:2 (0)

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Venue
Jun 11	Czech Republic	2–1	W	Zapopan
Jun 18	Mexico	0–1	L	Zapopan

Tournament outlook

Analysis

South Korea carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (25th of 48). Kim Seung-gyu — 35 at kickoff with 85 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa, Czech Republic, they are projected at 75.9% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

South Korea under Hong Myung-bo play a counter attacker game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 25.0).

Path to success

In Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa, Czech Republic, South Korea are projected at 75.9% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 33.4%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

South Korea rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Kim Seung-gyu across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of South Korea broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.2%Win probability25th in field

1752Elo ratingRanked 33rd globally

4-2-3-1Predicted formationFrom 4 observed matches

44%Possession sharebottom quartile (42nd of 48)

41.5%Tournament goal probability — Son Heung-minTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

2.4 yearsManager tenureHong Myung-bo — 2 World Cups as coach

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Counter-attacking · style profile from 7 recent matches

Press

Build-up

6.1

Directness

7.1

Width (proxy)

398.3

Tempo

9.1

Set-piece reliance

12.6

What to watch: a more passive press, sitting off the ball.

Percentiles position South Korea against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group A finish · South Korea

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
19.7%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
34.0%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
29.8%
4th
Eliminated
16.5%

Stage progression · South Korea

, 100,000 sims

75.2%AdvAdvance from group
35.4%R16Round of 16
13.4%QFQuarter-final
4.1%SFSemi-final
1.2%FFinal
0.4%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · South Korea

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Canada18%

Switzerland16%

Belgium16%

R16

Round of 16

Netherlands14%

England13%

Morocco11%

Quarter-final

France15%

Spain14%

Germany11%

Semi-final

Spain16%

Argentina12%

France8%

Final

Argentina18%

England10%

France8%

The squad

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Kim Seung-gyuCaps-drivenFC Tokyo

85c—0.42

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Kim Min-jaeCaps-driven↘Bayern Munich

77c19tackles0.41

Seol Young-wooCaps-driven→Red Star Belgrade

32c—0.49

Kim Moon-hwanCaps-drivenDaejeon Hana Citizen

34c—0.34

Cho Yu-minRating-drivenSharjah

18c—0.49

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Hwang In-beomCaps-driven↗Feyenoord

71c5assists0.74

Hwang Hee-chanCaps-driven→Wolverhampton Wanderers

77c10assists0.51

Lee Kang-in↘Paris Saint-Germain

46c13assists0.87

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Son Heung-minCaps-driven↘Los Angeles FC

142c54goals0.71

Cho Gue-sungCaps-driven↘Midtjylland

42c10goals0.55

Oh Hyeon-gyuBeşiktaş

26c6goals0.45

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Jo Hyeon-wooCaps-driven↘Ulsan HD★ Likely first sub

47c—0.47

Song Bum-keunRating-drivenJeonbuk Hyundai Motors★ Likely first sub

2c—0.47

Defenders (6)

PlayerStat

Jens CastropRating-drivenBorussia Mönchengladbach★ Likely first sub

5c—0.56

Lee Tae-seokAustria Wien★ Likely first sub

14c—0.28

Park Jin-seobZhejiang FC

12c—0.28

Lee Han-beomRating-drivenMidtjylland★ Likely first sub

6c—0.36

Kim Tae-hyeonRating-drivenKashima Antlers

7c—0.27

Lee Ki-hyukCaps-drivenGangwon FC

1c—0.00

Midfielders (7)

PlayerStat

Lee Jae-sungCaps-driven→Mainz 05impact 28/100

103c17assists0.41

Paik Seung-hoCaps-drivenBirmingham Cityimpact 8/100

25c0assists0.28

Kim Jin-gyuCaps-drivenJeonbuk Hyundai Motors

20c2assists0.25

Lee Dong-gyeongUlsan HD

16c2assists0.27

Bae Jun-hoRating-drivenStoke City★ Likely first sub

12c4assists0.37

Yang Hyun-junRating-drivenCeltic★ Likely first sub

8c0assists0.42

Eom Ji-sungRating-drivenSwansea City★ Likely first sub

8c0assists0.34

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 3/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes: 0.00%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.333; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 100%; 3 of 3 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Bayern Munich1
Paris Saint Germain1
Tottenham1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Hwang In-beomDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Park Jin-seob · 0.28Zhejiang FC0.46gap to repl.
Lee Kang-inAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Lee Jae-sung · 0.41Mainz 050.46gap to repl.
Cho Gue-sungStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.31gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 11, 2026	Czech Republic	Zapopan, Mexico
2	Jun 18, 2026	Mexico	Zapopan, Mexico
3	Jun 24, 2026	South Africa	Guadalupe, Mexico

Head-to-head matchups

South Korea projected scorers →

Storylines

Updated 28 days ago

Dead-ballSon Heung-min

Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.

Long-haul

Travels 34,978 km across 2 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.

League pedigree

Only 4 of 24 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

Last danceKim Seung-gyu

35 at kickoff with 85 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Form & track record

Video analysis: South Korea

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 4 players observed, 7 events tracked.

Oh Hyeon-gyuStandout performer

Came off the bench to score South Korea's winning goal, securing the comeback victory.

2 goals

Goals

Shots

Saves

Fouls won

Cards

Rating spread(4 ratings)

8+ (3)7 (1)6 (0)5- (0)

Match by match

gs-002

3 goals1 shots

gs-025

Player ratings (4)

Oh Hyeon-gyu1 app · 3 events

2 goals

▼

Came off the bench to score South Korea's winning goal, securing the comeback victory.

gs-0028Came off the bench to score South Korea's winning goal, securing the comeback victory.

Hwang In-beom1 app · 1 events

1 goal

▼

Scored South Korea's equalising goal with a precise finish, initiating the comeback.

gs-0028Scored South Korea's equalising goal with a precise finish, initiating the comeback.

Kim Seung-gyu1 app · 2 events

2 saves

▼

Made several vital stops, including a crucial late save, proving instrumental in securing the win.

gs-0028Made several vital stops, including a crucial late save, proving instrumental in securing the win.

Son Heung-min1 app · 1 events

1 shot (1 on target)

▼

Demonstrated significant attacking intent with multiple shots on target, contributing to offensive pressure.

gs-0027Demonstrated significant attacking intent with multiple shots on target, contributing to offensive pressure.

Match observations

gs-002The match was a dynamic contest with both teams creating numerous scoring opportunities.
gs-002South Korea displayed strong character, achieving a comeback victory after conceding first.
gs-002Goalkeepers on both sides were instrumental, making crucial interventions throughout the game.
gs-025The match, a group stage encounter in the FIFA World Cup, saw Mexico and South Korea engage in an exciting contest.
gs-025Mexico established an early lead through a well-constructed attacking move, but South Korea swiftly responded with an equaliser, highlighting their quick passing and offensive capabilities.
gs-025The game featured end-to-end action, with both teams displaying a strong desire to advance the ball and create scoring opportunities.

Statistical profile

Counter Attacker

Attack

Attack rating0.7329th/48

Shots per match10.828th/48

Chance quality0.08238th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.6518th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5129th/48

GK: Kim Seung-gyu

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share12.6%22nd/48

Penalty conversion72.5%21st/48

Penalty save rate22.5%26th/48

Style

Possession43.8%42nd/48

Press intensity25.032nd/48

Directness7.111th/48

Crossing volume398.330th/48

Long ball volume39.511th/48

Build-up length6.124th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,28634th/48

Club familiarity0.00033rd/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored8 goals · 82 shots

Conceded11 goals · 107 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Czech Republic2026-06-11

Win36.1%

Draw28.3%

Loss35.5%

Expected goals for1.10

Expected goals against1.14

Likeliest score1-1 (14.2%)

Both teams score46.5%

Clean sheet31.8%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Mexico2026-06-18

Win29.0%

Draw29.2%

Loss41.8%

Expected goals for0.92

Expected goals against1.20

Likeliest score1-1 (14.1%)

Both teams score42.8%

Clean sheet30.0%

Full fixture analysis →

vs South Africa2026-06-24

Win51.0%

Draw28.5%

Loss20.5%

Expected goals for1.51

Expected goals against0.78

Likeliest score0-1 (14.5%)

Both teams score42.9%

Clean sheet45.9%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record6W · 1D · 3L

Goals15–12

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	AAustria	0–1	L	Friendly
2026-03-28	NIvory Coast	0–4	L	Friendly
2025-11-18	HGhana	1–0	W	Friendly
2025-11-14	HBolivia	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-10-14	HParaguay	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-10-10	HBrazil	0–5	L	Friendly
2025-09-09	NMexico	2–2	D	Friendly
2025-09-06	AUnited States	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-06-10	HKuwait	4–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-05	AIraq	2–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Mexico	15	4-2-9	2026 — Loss (0–1) · FIFA World Cup
Czech Republic	4	2-1-1	2026 — Win (2–1) · FIFA World Cup
South Africa	0	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
AFC Asian Cup	2024	Semi-finals	2-3-1	Same head coach (Hong Myung-bo) since 2024 19/23 of current pool (83%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Round of 16	1-1-2	New head coach since then — now Hong Myung-bo (appointed 2024) 17/23 of current pool (74%) were active that year
Gold Cup	2002	5 matches	0-2-3	New head coach since then — now Hong Myung-bo (appointed 2024) 0/23 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

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WC2026 results

Tournament outlook

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group A finish · South Korea?

Stage progression · South Korea?

Likely knockout path · South Korea

The squad

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

Head-to-head matchups

Storylines

Form & track record

Video analysis: South Korea

Match by match

Player ratings (4)

Match observations

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

See all 104 match forecasts

Group A finish · South Korea

Stage progression · South Korea

Confirmed squad