France
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group I·FIFA #3
Kylian Mbappé: Torn muscle fiber, no expected return. Composite 0.99 — would have been a likely starter.
Recent formation: 4-2-3-1 (6 of 7)
- Rival
- Senegal (#19)
- Key
- Marcus Thuram (FW)
WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
France enter as defending champions and the model's 4th favourite at 9.0%. A key storyline is the fitness of Kylian Mbappé — torn muscle fiber, no expected return. Drawn in Group I alongside Senegal, Norway, Iraq, they are projected at 97.3% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
France under Didier Deschamps play a balanced game with 51% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 26.1) and build patiently through midfield with 7.5 passes per attacking sequence.
Path to success
Their route begins in Group I with Senegal, Norway, Iraq, where the model projects a 63.5% chance of finishing top and 97.3% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (70.6%), quarter-finals (45.7%), semi-finals (30.0%), the final (16.7%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.
What they must execute
France will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing the fitness of Kylian Mbappé could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of France broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 24 recent matches
What to watch: a more passive press, sitting off the ball.
Percentiles position France against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group I finish · France
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 60.6%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 26.0%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 11.1%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 2.2%4thEliminated
Stage progression · France
, 100,000 sims- 96.1%AdvAdvance from group
- 67.2%R16Round of 16
- 42.8%QFQuarter-final
- 27.3%SFSemi-final
- 15.2%FFinal
- 8.3%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · France
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Predicted squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 5.20%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.140
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 50%
- 5 of 10 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- AC Milan2
- Inter2
- Aston Villa1
Most-connected club pair
Mike Maignan + Théo Hernandez — AC Milan, 2024-25 · 5,308 shared minutes
Show next 1
- Benjamin Pavard + Marcus Thuram — Inter, 2023-24 · 3,273 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- N'Golo KantéDefensive midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level DM ~0.250.43gap to repl.
- Aurélien TchouaméniDefensive midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level DM ~0.250.26gap to repl.
- Kylian MbappéStrikerLikely cover: Jean-Philippe Mateta · 0.77Crystal Palace0.21gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoTorn muscle fiber, no expected return. Composite 0.99 — would have been a likely starter.
Defending champion — Winner 2022.
Squad averages 1.90 xG per match across club football last season — #2 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (21 of 24 players matched to a known club).
#3 starting-GK rating in the field — 0.96 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
Form & track record
Video analysis: France
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 1 match. 4 players observed, 8 events tracked.
Scored two decisive goals and was a constant, clinical threat in attack, leading his team to victory.
1 goalPlayer ratings (4)
9Kylian Mbappé1 app · 5 events1 goal2 shots (2 on target)2 fouls won9▼
Scored two decisive goals and was a constant, clinical threat in attack, leading his team to victory.
8Bradley Barcola1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Came off the bench to score a crucial goal with a composed finish, extending France's lead.
7Mike Maignan1 app7▼
Made crucial saves at key moments, maintaining his team's lead.
6Désiré Doué1 app · 2 events2 shots (2 on target)6▼
Showed good attacking intent with multiple shots on target, though unable to convert.
Match observations
- gs-017The match saw France secure a 3-1 victory over Senegal in a game that came alive in the second half.
- gs-017France grew into the game, with Kylian Mbappe proving decisive with two goals, supported by strong attacking contributions from his teammates.
- gs-017The game featured a VAR review for a potential penalty, which was ultimately overturned, adding to the drama.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Mike Maignan
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: moderate
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 24 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24France trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 2082.0 to 2081.0 (−1.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 10.0% to 8.3% (−1.7pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | NColombia | 3–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-26 | NBrazil | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-16 | AAzerbaijan | 3–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | HUkraine | 4–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-13 | AIceland | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HAzerbaijan | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-09 | HIceland | 2–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-05 | NUkraine | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-08 | AGermany | 2–0 | W | UEFA Nations League |
| 2025-06-05 | NSpain | 4–5 | L | UEFA Nations League |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 16 | 7-4-5 | 2014 — Win (4–0) · Friendly |
| Senegal | 3 | 1-0-2 | 2026 — Win (3–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Iraq | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2026 — Win (3–0) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Semi-finals | 2-3-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Runner-up | 5-1-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Belgium · Euro 2024
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2048) and group draw.
Netherlands · World Cup 2022
Exited at the quarter-final
Portugal · Euro 2024
Exited at the quarter-final
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