Turkey
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group D·FIFA #—
Pragmatic side with a Galatasaray-heavy spine.
- Rival
- United States (#14)
- Key
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu (MF)
Final squad announced · Turkey · 2026-06-02
Source: USA Today ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Turkey sit in the second tier of contenders with a 0.5% tournament probability (20th in the field). Drawn in Group D alongside United States, Australia, Paraguay, they are projected at 76.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Turkey under Vincenzo Montella play a pragmatic game with 50% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.5). They generate a high volume of shots (13.2 per 90) and rely heavily on set pieces (20% of their xG).
Path to success
Turkey face United States, Australia, Paraguay in Group D, with a 76.7% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 15.9%, though reaching the semi-finals (5.1%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Turkey play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Turkey broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Pragmatic · style profile from 8 recent matches
What to watch: an above-average reliance on set pieces.
Percentiles position Turkey against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group D finish · Turkey
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 27.0%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 25.5%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 24.4%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 23.1%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Turkey
, 100,000 sims- 71.6%AdvAdvance from group
- 36.3%R16Round of 16
- 14.2%QFQuarter-final
- 4.9%SFSemi-final
- 1.7%FFinal
- 0.5%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Turkey
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.500
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Atletico Madrid1
- Inter1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Orkun KökçüCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.59gap to repl.
- Ferdi KadıoğluFull-backLikely cover: Eren Elmalı · 0.62Galatasaray0.30gap to repl.
- Zeki ÇelikFull-backLikely cover: Eren Elmalı · 0.62Galatasaray0.15gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 13, 2026 | Australia | Vancouver, Canada |
| 2 | Jun 19, 2026 | Paraguay | Santa Clara, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | United States | Inglewood, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Galatasaray — a single-club spine on the international side.
Gained 68 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1958.
Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2023.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Turkey
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 14 players observed, 25 events tracked.
Came close to scoring for Türkiye, hitting the post with a powerful strike.
Match by match
Player ratings (14)
7Abdülkerim Bardakcı1 app · 1 events1 shot7▼
Came close to scoring for Türkiye, hitting the post with a powerful strike.
6Demiral1 app · 6 events3 shots (1 on target)3 headers6▼
Provided a consistent aerial threat from set pieces and crosses, getting on the end of multiple opportunities, though without scoring.
6Yılmaz1 app · 4 events2 shots1 header6▼
Actively involved in multiple attacking movements, creating chances for himself and others, but lacked the clinical finish or precise pass to convert.
6Kökçü1 app · 3 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Demonstrated his ability from dead-ball situations by forcing a save from a dangerous free-kick.
6Kenan Yıldız1 app · 1 events6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
6Barış Alper Yılmaz1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 45 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Orkun Kökçü1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 61 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Kerem Aktürkoğlu1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 84 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Kaan Ayhan1 app · 1 events6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
6Merih Demiral1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 88 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Mert Müldür1 app · 1 events6▼
No specific performance details were provided, but his visible disappointment reflected the team's overall sentiment.
6Deniz Gül1 app6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
5.5Arda Güler2 apps · 2 events1 yellow56▼
Showed flashes of talent but received a yellow card and his efforts were not converted.
4Yunus Akgün1 app · 2 events1 yellow4▼
Received a yellow card shortly after entering the match as a substitute.
Match observations
- gs-008Australia secured a 2-0 victory over Türkiye in a match marked by contrasting approaches.
- gs-008Australia's goals resulted from swift transitions and clinical finishing, while Türkiye generated numerous scoring opportunities but struggled to convert.
- gs-008The match featured a vibrant atmosphere, with supporters from both nations contributing to an intense environment.
- gs-032Paraguay secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Turkey in a match that saw an early goal and a red card.
- gs-032Paraguay's early strike allowed them to adopt a defensive posture, which they maintained effectively despite being reduced to ten men.
- gs-032Turkey dominated possession and created numerous chances, particularly in the second half, but were unable to convert their opportunities.
Statistical profile
PragmaticAttack
Defence
GK: Uğurcan Çakır
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 8 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Turkey trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1903.0 to 1902.0 (−1.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.5% (+0.3pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | AKosovo | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2026-03-26 | HRomania | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-18 | ASpain | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | HBulgaria | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | HGeorgia | 4–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-11 | ABulgaria | 6–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-07 | HSpain | 0–6 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | AGeorgia | 3–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | NMexico | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-06-07 | AUnited States | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 5 | 2-1-2 | 2025 — Win (2–1) · Friendly |
| Australia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (0–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| Paraguay | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (0–1) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 3-0-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2002 | 3rd place | 4-1-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Italy · World Cup 1994
Won the tournament
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1934) and group draw.
Czech Republic · Euro 2008
Exited at the group stage
Ukraine · Euro 2024
Exited at the group stage
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