Portugal

Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Group K·FIFA #6

Top-8 contender

Possession-dominant side led by Gonçalo Ramos.

Recent formation: 4-3-3 (5 of 5)

Rival: Colombia (#13)
Key: Cristiano Ronaldo (FW)

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Final squad announced · Portugal · 2026-05-19

Source: The New York Times ↗

WC2026 results

Record1W · 1D · 0L

Goals6:1 (+5)

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Venue
Jun 17	DR Congo	1–1	D	Houston
Jun 23	Uzbekistan	5–0	W	Houston

Tournament outlook

Analysis

Portugal are rated at 8.1% to win the tournament, placing them 5th in the field. Cristiano Ronaldo — 41 at kickoff with 226 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group K alongside Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo, they are projected at 97.1% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Portugal under Roberto Martínez play a possession dominant game, holding 59% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 21.6) and build patiently through midfield with 7.9 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (13.5 per 90).

Path to success

Their route begins in Group K with Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo, where the model projects a 52.9% chance of finishing top and 97.1% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (68.6%), quarter-finals (44.6%), semi-finals (25.5%), the final (15.0%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.

What they must execute

To succeed, Portugal must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing minutes for Cristiano Ronaldo across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Portugal broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

8.1%Win probability5th in field

1984Elo ratingRanked 5th globally

4-3-3Predicted formationMost-used shape in recent tournaments

59%Possession sharetop quartile (5th of 48)

44.0%Tournament goal probability — Cristiano RonaldoTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

3.4 yearsManager tenureRoberto Martínez — 3 World Cups as coach

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Possession-dominant · style profile from 18 recent matches

Press

21.6

Build-up

7.9

Directness

4.5

Width (proxy)

564.4

Tempo

9.9

Set-piece reliance

What to watch: heavy use of the flanks (crossing proxy).

Percentiles position Portugal against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group K finish · Portugal

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
49.6%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
36.9%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
10.5%
4th
Eliminated
3.0%

Stage progression · Portugal

, 100,000 sims

94.9%AdvAdvance from group
64.6%R16Round of 16
40.7%QFQuarter-final
23.5%SFSemi-final
13.5%FFinal
7.3%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Portugal

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Croatia28%

Panama21%

England20%

R16

Round of 16

Spain21%

Switzerland16%

Canada12%

Quarter-final

Argentina28%

Belgium10%

Uruguay9%

Semi-final

Brazil15%

France11%

England10%

Final

Spain17%

France11%

Argentina10%

The squad

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Diogo Costa→Porto

42c—1.00

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

João CanceloCaps-drivenBarcelona

66c24tackles0.78

Rúben DiasCaps-driven↘Manchester City

74c34tackles0.62

Nélson Semedo→Fenerbahçe

48c59tackles0.87

Diogo Dalot→Manchester United

33c20tackles0.82

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Bruno FernandesGoals-driven↗Manchester United

87c26assists0.96

Bernardo SilvaCaps-driven↘Manchester City

107c29assists0.64

Rúben NevesCaps-driven↗Al-Hilal

65c5assists0.44

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Cristiano RonaldoGoals-driven↘Al-Nassr

226c143goals0.84

João FélixCaps-driven↘Al-Nassr

52c12goals0.79

Rafael Leão→Milan

43c5goals0.75

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Rui SilvaRating-drivenSporting CP★ Likely first subimpact 1/100

2c77save%0.50

José SáRating-driven↘Wolverhampton Wanderers★ Likely first sub

4c61save%0.44

Defenders (5)

PlayerStat

Nuno MendesCaps-driven→Paris Saint-Germainimpact 58/100

43c45tackles0.49

Gonçalo InácioRating-drivenSporting CP★ Likely first sub

20c—0.97

Matheus NunesRating-driven↗Manchester City★ Likely first subimpact 12/100

19c—0.93

Renato VeigaRating-drivenVillarreal★ Likely first subimpact 1/100

11c—0.67

Tomás AraújoCaps-drivenBenfica

3c—0.00

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

VitinhaCaps-driven↘Paris Saint-Germain★ Likely first subimpact 19/100

37c4assists0.59

João NevesRating-drivenParis Saint-Germain★ Likely first subimpact 39/100

21c0assists0.95

Samú CostaRating-driven↗Mallorca★ Likely first subimpact 21/100

4c0assists0.56

Forwards (5)

PlayerStat

Gonçalo RamosRating-drivenParis Saint-Germain★ Likely first subimpact 66/100

24c10goals0.80

Gonçalo GuedesCaps-driven→Real Sociedadimpact 33/100

33c7goals0.29

Pedro Neto→Chelsea★ Likely first subimpact 44/100

23c2goals0.45

Francisco ConceiçãoRating-drivenJuventus★ Likely first subimpact 54/100

15c3goals0.56

Francisco TrincãoSporting CPimpact 37/100

17c3goals0.40

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes: 4.99%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.225; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 71%; 5 of 7 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Manchester United2
AC Milan2
Barcelona1

Most-connected club pair

Diogo Dalot + Bruno Fernandes — Manchester United, 2023-24 · 5,942 shared minutes

Show next 2

João Cancelo + João Félix — Barcelona, 2023-24 · 1,530 min
João Félix + Rafael Leão — AC Milan, 2024-25 · 761 min

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Bruno FernandesAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Francisco Trincão · 0.40Sporting CP0.56gap to repl.
Diogo CostaGoalkeeperLikely cover: Rui Silva · 0.50Sporting CP0.50gap to repl.
Bernardo SilvaAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Francisco Trincão · 0.40Sporting CP0.24gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 17, 2026	DR Congo	Houston, United States
2	Jun 23, 2026	Uzbekistan	Houston, United States
3	Jun 27, 2026	Colombia	Miami Gardens, United States

Head-to-head matchups

Portugal projected scorers →

Storylines

Updated 28 days ago

Last danceCristiano Ronaldo

41 at kickoff with 226 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Top scorerGonçalo Ramos

Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 30% probability of scoring at least once, rank #6 of all players.

Scoring form

Averaged 2.63 xG per match across 15 recent internationals — #3 of 35 in the field for attacking output.

Club xG

Squad averages 1.80 xG per match across club football last season — #4 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (13 of 23 players matched to a known club).

Form & track record

Video analysis: Portugal

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 1 match. 6 players observed, 8 events tracked.

João NevesStandout performer

Scored the opening goal for Portugal with a well-placed header, providing an early lead.

1 goal

Goals

Shots

Fouls won

Cards

Rating spread(6 ratings)

8+ (1)7 (2)6 (1)5- (2)

Player ratings (6)

João Neves1 app · 1 events

1 goal

▼

Scored the opening goal for Portugal with a well-placed header, providing an early lead.

gs-0218Scored the opening goal for Portugal with a well-placed header, providing an early lead.

Nuno Mendes1 app · 1 events

1 shot (1 on target)

▼

Made a dangerous attacking run and had a shot on target, showing good offensive contribution from defense.

gs-0217Made a dangerous attacking run and had a shot on target, showing good offensive contribution from defense.

Conceição1 app · 1 events

▼

Provided a good pass that created a clear scoring opportunity for Ronaldo.

gs-0217Provided a good pass that created a clear scoring opportunity for Ronaldo.

Bernardo Silva1 app · 1 events

1 fouls won

▼

Was fouled, leading to a yellow card for an opponent, but had no other significant contributions.

gs-0216Was fouled, leading to a yellow card for an opponent, but had no other significant contributions.

Cristiano Ronaldo1 app · 2 events

1 shot1 fouls won

▼

Missed a clear close-range opportunity, failing to convert a significant chance for Portugal.

gs-0215Missed a clear close-range opportunity, failing to convert a significant chance for Portugal.

Nélson Semedo1 app · 2 events

1 yellow

▼

Received a yellow card late in the game for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.

gs-0215Received a yellow card late in the game for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.

Match observations

gs-021The match ended in a 1-1 draw, with both teams scoring a goal each.
gs-021Portugal took an early lead, but Congo DR managed to equalize just before half-time.
gs-021Both teams had significant chances throughout the game, including shots hitting the post and good saves from the goalkeepers.

Statistical profile

Possession Dominant

Attack

Attack rating1.314th/48

Shots per match13.59th/48

Chance quality0.13811th/48

Defence

Defence rating1.0642nd/48

Goalkeeper rating0.916th/48

GK: José Sá

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share17.0%9th/48

Penalty conversion73.3%16th/48

Penalty save rate28.9%3rd/48

Style

Possession59.3%5th/48

Press intensity21.623rd/48

Directness4.537th/48

Crossing volume564.43rd/48

Long ball volume29.735th/48

Build-up length7.94th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter2,0985th/48

Club familiarity0.0502nd/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored28 goals · 263 shots

Conceded20 goals · 184 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 18 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs DR Congo2026-06-17

Win65.6%

Draw24.4%

Loss10.0%

Expected goals for2.21

Expected goals against0.58

Likeliest score2-0 (14.9%)

Both teams score39.9%

Clean sheet55.8%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Uzbekistan2026-06-23

Win62.2%

Draw25.1%

Loss12.6%

Expected goals for1.90

Expected goals against0.51

Likeliest score1-0 (16.4%)

Both teams score34.7%

Clean sheet59.8%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Colombia2026-06-27

Win38.0%

Draw28.5%

Loss33.5%

Expected goals for1.26

Expected goals against1.09

Likeliest score1-1 (14.0%)

Both teams score48.3%

Clean sheet33.8%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record6W · 3D · 1L

Goals26–10

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	AUnited States	2–0	W	Friendly
2026-03-28	AMexico	0–0	D	Friendly
2025-11-16	HArmenia	9–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-13	ARepublic of Ireland	0–2	L	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-14	HHungary	2–2	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-11	HRepublic of Ireland	1–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-09	AHungary	3–2	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-06	AArmenia	5–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-08	NSpain	2–2	D	UEFA Nations League
2025-06-04	AGermany	2–1	W	UEFA Nations League

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
DR Congo	1	0-1-0	2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup
Uzbekistan	1	1-0-0	2026 — Win (5–0) · FIFA World Cup
Colombia	0	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
UEFA Euro	2024	Quarter-finals	2-2-1	Same head coach (Roberto Martínez) since 2023 24/25 of current pool (96%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Quarter-finals	3-0-2	New head coach since then — now Roberto Martínez (appointed 2023) 15/25 of current pool (60%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

England · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2006) and group draw.
Germany · Euro 2008
Finished runner-up
England · World Cup 2018
Finished fourth

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WC2026 results

Tournament outlook

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group K finish · Portugal?

Stage progression · Portugal?

Likely knockout path · Portugal

The squad

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Most-connected club pair

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

Head-to-head matchups

Storylines

Form & track record

Video analysis: Portugal

Player ratings (6)

Match observations

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

See all 104 match forecasts

Group K finish · Portugal

Stage progression · Portugal

Confirmed squad