Iran
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0AFC·Group G·FIFA #20
Transition-heavy side with a Tractor-heavy spine.
- Rival
- Belgium (#8)
- Key
- Mehdi Taremi (FW)
Final squad announced · Iran · 2026-06-02
Source: Türkiye Today ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 | New Zealand | 2–2 | D | Inglewood |
| Jun 21 | Belgium | 0–0 | D | Inglewood |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Iran carry a 0.4% probability of winning the tournament (23rd of 48). The squad bridges generations: Ehsan Hajsafi (36 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Kasra Taheri, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand, they are projected at 83.2% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Iran under Amir Ghalenoei play a transition heavy game, with just 33% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-4-2, though they have also used other. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 29.0) and move the ball forward quickly at 4.5 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (8.4 per 90).
Path to success
In Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand, Iran are projected at 83.2% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 41.9%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Iran rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Ehsan Hajsafi across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
One factor to watch: XI averaged only 614 club minutes in 2023-24 — #42 of 43 in the field. Light pre-tournament prep on the starting eleven.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 6 recent matches
What to watch: a quick, few-touch route to attack.
Percentiles position Iran against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group G finish · Iran
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 24.9%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 35.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 26.8%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 12.7%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Iran
, 100,000 sims- 80.6%AdvAdvance from group
- 41.3%R16Round of 16
- 15.8%QFQuarter-final
- 5.3%SFSemi-final
- 1.9%FFinal
- 0.6%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Iran
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 1/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 1 of 1 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Brentford1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Mehdi TaremiStrikerLikely cover: Ali Alipour · 0.27Persepolis0.39gap to repl.
- Alireza JahanbakhshWingerLikely cover: Mohammad Mohebi · 0.53Rostov0.30gap to repl.
- Hossein KanaanizadeganCentre-backLikely cover: Ali Nemati · 0.27Foolad0.22gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | New Zealand | Inglewood, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | Belgium | Inglewood, United States |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | Egypt | Seattle, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoOnly 1 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
36 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final World Cup.
19 at kickoff — 2 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
4 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Tractor — a single-club spine on the international side.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Iran
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 10 players observed, 10 events tracked.
Scored a crucial goal and was a constant attacking threat, despite missing a late opportunity to seal the victory.
1 goalMatch by match
Player ratings (10)
8Mehdi Taremi1 app · 3 events1 goal2 shots (1 on target)8▼
Scored a crucial goal and was a constant attacking threat, despite missing a late opportunity to seal the victory.
8Mohammad Mohebi1 app · 2 events1 goal1 header8▼
Scored the second equalizer for Iran with a crucial header, completing a comeback.
8Ramin Rezaeian1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored a vital equalizer for Iran with a well-executed shot.
8Alireza Beiranvand2 apps · 2 events1 save88▼
Made several crucial saves that prevented New Zealand from extending their lead or scoring more goals.
6Mehdi Ghayedi2 apps · 1 events66▼
6Saman Ghoddos1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 65 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
6Arya Yousefi1 app6▼
Played for 50 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
6Saeid Ezatolahi1 app6▼
Came very close to scoring with a shot that hit the post, showing good attacking intent from midfield.
4Sardar Azmoun1 app4▼
Received a yellow card for a foul and showed frustration, failing to make a positive impact on the match.
4Hossein Kanaanizadegan1 app4▼
Received a yellow card for a foul, indicating a lapse in discipline without other notable contributions.
Match observations
- gs-014The match was a high-energy contest, with both teams demonstrating a strong desire to attack.
- gs-014New Zealand established a lead twice, but Iran showed resilience by equalizing on both occasions.
- gs-014Key moments included a shot striking the post and multiple impressive saves from both goalkeepers, highlighting the competitive nature of the game.
- gs-037The match was a tense and hard-fought encounter at SoFi Stadium, with both teams desperate for a victory to advance in the World Cup.
- gs-037The first half was a cagey affair with few clear-cut chances, though Iran came closest with a shot hitting the post.
- gs-037The second half exploded into life with end-to-end action, featuring a goal for Iran, a late equalizer for Belgium, and numerous dramatic moments.
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Alireza Beiranvand
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 6 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Iran trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1760.0 to 1760.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.6% (+0.4pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NCosta Rica | 5–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | NNigeria | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NUzbekistan | 0–0 | D | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-11-13 | NCape Verde | 0–0 | D | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-10-14 | NTanzania | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | ARussia | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-06-10 | HNorth Korea | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | AQatar | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-03-25 | HUzbekistan | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-03-20 | HUnited Arab Emirates | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 3 | 1-2-0 | 2026 — Draw (2–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| Belgium | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (0–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Egypt | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2000 — Loss (1–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Semi-finals | 4-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Saudi Arabia · Asian Cup 2011
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1741) and group draw.
South Korea · Asian Cup 2007
Finished third
South Korea · World Cup 2010
Exited at the round of 16
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