England
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group L·FIFA #4
Defensively elite side missing Tino Livramento through injury, with a Manchester City-heavy spine.
Recent formation: 4-1-4-1 (3 of 5)
- Rival
- Croatia (#10)
- Key
- Harry Kane (FW)
Final squad announced · England · 2026-06-06
Source: Sky Sports — Football ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
England are rated at 6.5% to win the tournament, placing them 6th in the field. A key storyline is the fitness of Tino Livramento — thigh problems, no expected return. Drawn in Group L alongside Croatia, Panama, Ghana, they are projected at 98.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
England under Thomas Tuchel play a balanced game, holding 55% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-1-4-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.5) and build patiently through midfield with 8.5 passes per attacking sequence. They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.142, among the best in the field).
Path to success
Their route begins in Group L with Croatia, Panama, Ghana, where the model projects a 65.6% chance of finishing top and 98.7% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (65.4%), quarter-finals (42.8%), semi-finals (24.5%), the final (12.6%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.
What they must execute
England will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing the fitness of Tino Livramento could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.
Controversial take
One factor to watch: XI averaged 2,119 club minutes in 2024-25 — #4 of 43 in the field. Heavy pre-tournament load on the starting eleven.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 26 recent matches
What to watch: patient, multi-pass build-up.
Percentiles position England against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group L finish · England
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 64.1%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 27.9%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 6.6%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 1.4%4thEliminated
Stage progression · England
, 100,000 sims- 97.5%AdvAdvance from group
- 61.5%R16Round of 16
- 38.5%QFQuarter-final
- 21.9%SFSemi-final
- 11.5%FFinal
- 5.9%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · England
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 4.85%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.124
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 45%
- 5 of 11 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Manchester City2
- Arsenal2
- Everton1
Most-connected club pair
Declan Rice + Bukayo Saka — Arsenal, 2023-24 · 4,753 shared minutes
Show next 2
- Harry Maguire + Marcus Rashford — Manchester United, 2023-24 · 1,645 min
- John Stones + Kyle Walker — Manchester City, 2023-24 · 1,599 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Marc GuéhiCentre-backLikely cover: Jarell Quansah · 0.65Bayer Leverkusen0.32gap to repl.
- Jude BellinghamAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Morgan Rogers · 0.72Aston Villa0.27gap to repl.
- Marcus RashfordWingerLikely cover: Anthony Gordon · 0.62Newcastle United0.19gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoThigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.94 — would have been a likely starter.
Conceded only 0.44 xG per match across 11 recent internationals — #2 of 35 in the field for defensive solidity.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #2 of all players.
XI averaged 2,119 club minutes in 2024-25 — #4 of 43 in the field. Heavy pre-tournament load on the starting eleven.
Form & track record
Video analysis: England
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 1 match. 4 players observed, 6 events tracked.
Scored two crucial goals, including a penalty and a header, demonstrating his clinical finishing.
2 goalsPlayer ratings (4)
8Harry Kane1 app · 3 events2 goals1 shot (1 on target)8▼
Scored two crucial goals, including a penalty and a header, demonstrating his clinical finishing.
7Jude Bellingham1 app · 1 events1 goal7▼
Scored England's third goal early in the second half, putting them ahead for good.
7Marcus Rashford1 app · 1 events1 goal7▼
Scored England's fourth goal, extending their lead and securing the victory.
6Declan Rice1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Registered a strong shot on goal that tested the Croatian goalkeeper.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Dean Henderson
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 26 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24England trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 2020.0 to 2020.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 6.9% to 5.9% (−1.0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HJapan | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | HUruguay | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-11-16 | AAlbania | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | HSerbia | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | ALatvia | 5–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-09 | HWales | 3–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | ASerbia | 5–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-06 | HAndorra | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | HSenegal | 1–3 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-06-07 | NAndorra | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 12 | 7-2-3 | 2026 — Win (4–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| Ghana | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2026 — Draw (0–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Panama | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2018 — Win (6–1) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Runner-up | 3-3-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Quarter-finals | 3-1-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Belgium · Euro 2024
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2048) and group draw.
Spain · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
Germany · Euro 2016
Exited at the semi-final
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