Egypt
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CAF·Group G·FIFA #34
Pragmatic side missing Mohamed Salah through injury, with an Al Ahly-heavy spine.
- Rival
- Belgium (#8)
- Key
- Mohamed Salah (FW)
Final squad announced · Egypt · 2026-05-21
Source: Reddit — /r/worldcup ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 | Belgium | 1–1 | D | Seattle |
| Jun 21 | New Zealand | 3–1 | W | Vancouver |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Egypt carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (29th of 48). A key storyline is the fitness of Mohamed Salah — thigh problems, no expected return. Drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, New Zealand, they are projected at 67.8% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Egypt under Hossam Hassan play a pragmatic game with 51% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 21.8). They generate a high volume of shots (13.7 per 90).
Path to success
In Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, New Zealand, Egypt are projected at 67.8% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 30.2%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Egypt play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing the fitness of Mohamed Salah could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Egypt broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Pragmatic · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: an above-average reliance on set pieces.
Percentiles position Egypt against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group G finish · Egypt
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 13.9%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 27.5%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 35.9%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 22.6%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Egypt
, 100,000 sims- 66.5%AdvAdvance from group
- 31.7%R16Round of 16
- 11.1%QFQuarter-final
- 3.7%SFSemi-final
- 1.2%FFinal
- 0.4%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Egypt
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 4/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.250
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 75%
- 3 of 4 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Nice1
- Arsenal1
- Eintracht Frankfurt1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Omar MarmoushStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.69gap to repl.
- Mohamed SalahWingerLikely cover: Ibrahim Adel · 0.39Nordsjælland0.35gap to repl.
- Emam AshourCentral midfieldLikely cover: Mahmoud Saber · 0.13ZED0.26gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | Belgium | Seattle, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | New Zealand | Vancouver, Canada |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | Iran | Seattle, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoThigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.96 — would have been a likely starter.
5 of 23 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al Ahly — a single-club spine on the international side.
18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Only 2 of 23 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Egypt
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 10 players observed, 17 events tracked.
Delivered an outstanding goalkeeping display, making numerous crucial saves to keep Egypt in the lead and secure the draw.
Match by match
Player ratings (10)
9Mostafa Shoubir1 app9▼
Delivered an outstanding goalkeeping display, making numerous crucial saves to keep Egypt in the lead and secure the draw.
8Egypt #91 app · 2 events2 goals8▼
Scored two crucial goals, demonstrating clinical finishing from inside the box.
8Emam Ashour1 app · 3 events1 goal1 shot8▼
Scored Egypt's opening goal with an impressive long-range strike, showcasing his offensive quality.
7Mohamed Salah2 apps · 4 events2 goals1 fouls won59▼
Despite his reputation, he had a very quiet game with no direct attacking contributions before being substituted.
6Omar Marmoush1 app · 4 events3 shots (2 on target)6▼
Was active in attack, registering several shots on target, but was consistently denied by the opposing goalkeeper.
6Ramy Rabia1 app · 2 events1 shot6▼
Came on as a substitute and had one shot wide, but no other significant contributions.
6Mostafa Zizo1 app · 2 events1 fouls won6▼
Came on as a late substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
6Mostafa Zico1 app6▼
Contributed offensively with a shot on target and drew a yellow card for an opponent before being substituted.
6Hamza Abdelkarim1 app6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
4Ahmed Fatouh1 app4▼
Received an early yellow card for a foul and had no other notable positive contributions.
Match observations
- gs-013The match was a competitive encounter, ending in a 1-1 draw with both teams finding the net.
- gs-013Egypt took the lead in the first half with a well-placed shot, while Belgium equalized in the second half shortly after a key substitution.
- gs-013Both sides had numerous attempts at goal, with goalkeepers on both ends making significant saves to keep the score level.
- gs-038This was a high-scoring and dynamic encounter, with both teams showcasing their attacking prowess.
- gs-038Egypt established an early lead with two well-taken goals, but New Zealand displayed resilience to draw level.
- gs-038The match featured several momentum swings, keeping the contest exciting until Egypt ultimately secured the victory.
Statistical profile
PragmaticAttack
Defence
GK: Mohamed El Shenawy
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023,WC2018). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Egypt trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1689.0 to 1689.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.4% (+0.2pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ASpain | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | ASaudi Arabia | 4–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-17 | NNigeria | 0–0 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-14 | NSenegal | 0–1 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-10 | NIvory Coast | 3–2 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-05 | NBenin | 3–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-29 | NAngola | 0–0 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-26 | NSouth Africa | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-22 | NZimbabwe | 2–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-09 | NJordan | 0–3 | L | Arab Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 5 | 3-1-1 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| New Zealand | 4 | 3-1-0 | 2026 — Win (3–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Iran | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2000 — Win (1–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 4 matches | 2-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2018 | Group stage | 0-0-3 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Morocco · Afcon 2017
Exited at the quarter-final
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1670) and group draw.
Algeria · Afcon 2015
Exited at the quarter-final
Tunisia · Afcon 2000
Finished third
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