Tunisia
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CAF·Group F·FIFA #40
Pragmatic side.
- Rival
- Netherlands (#7)
- Key
- Dylan Bronn (DF)
WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Tunisia carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (35th of 48). Watch for Rayan Elloumi — 18 at kickoff — 2 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, they are projected at 34.1% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Tunisia under Sabri Lamouchi play a pragmatic game with 49% possession. Their likely shape is a other. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 22.5). They are selective in their shooting (9.8 per 90) and rely heavily on set pieces (26% of their xG).
Path to success
In Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia are projected at 34.1% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Tunisia play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. With Sabri Lamouchi appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Tunisia broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Pragmatic · style profile from 9 recent matches
What to watch: an above-average reliance on set pieces.
Percentiles position Tunisia against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group F finish · Tunisia
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 4.5%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 13.1%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 29.6%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 52.8%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Tunisia
, 100,000 sims- 35.7%AdvAdvance from group
- 8.8%R16Round of 16
- 2.8%QFQuarter-final
- 0.8%SFSemi-final
- 0.2%FFinal
- 0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Tunisia
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 3/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.333
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 3 of 3 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Lorient1
- Union Berlin1
- Eintracht Frankfurt1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Montassar TalbiCentre-backLikely cover: Adem Arous · 0.06Kasımpaşa0.62gap to repl.
- Dylan BronnCentre-backLikely cover: Adem Arous · 0.06Kasımpaşa0.53gap to repl.
- Hannibal MejbriAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.37gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Sweden | Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Japan | Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Netherlands | Kansas City, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago18 at kickoff — 2 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Al-Diriyah.
Takes corners and free kicks — the team's dead-ball threat.
2 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Monterrey, Monterrey (peak 27.7°C average).
Form & track record
Video analysis: Tunisia
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 7 players observed, 11 events tracked.
Scored both of Tunisia's goals with headers from set-pieces, showing good aerial ability.
2 goalsMatch by match
Player ratings (7)
8Omar Rekik1 app · 4 events2 goals2 headers8▼
Scored both of Tunisia's goals with headers from set-pieces, showing good aerial ability.
8Mouez Dahmen1 app8▼
Made multiple outstanding and crucial saves, including a goal-line stop, preventing an even larger defeat for Tunisia.
7Hannibal Mejbri1 app · 1 events7▼
Provided a dangerous cross that directly led to one of Tunisia's goals.
6Sebastian Tounekti1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
4Rani Khedira1 app · 2 events1 yellow4▼
Received a yellow card for a late challenge, indicating a disciplinary issue.
4Ellyes Skhiri1 app · 2 events4▼
Lost possession in a dangerous area, directly leading to a goal for the opposition.
3Mouhib Chamakh1 app · 1 events3▼
Made a costly error that directly led to one of Sweden's goals.
Match observations
- gs-012The match saw Sweden secure a commanding 5-1 victory over Tunisia.
- gs-012Sweden's offensive unit displayed impressive coordination, with multiple forwards finding the net.
- gs-012Tunisia managed to reduce the deficit with a header, but defensive lapses allowed Sweden to consistently extend their advantage.
- gs-036Japan delivered a dominant performance, securing a comprehensive 4-0 victory over Tunisia.
- gs-036The match saw Japan's attacking players display clinical finishing, converting their chances effectively.
- gs-036Tunisia's goalkeeper, Mouez Dahmen, was a standout performer for his side, making numerous crucial saves to limit the scoreline.
Statistical profile
PragmaticAttack
Defence
GK: Aymen Dahmen
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 9 matches (AFCON2023,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Tunisia trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1636.0 to 1636.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from <0.1% to 0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ACanada | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | NHaiti | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-03 | NMali | 1–1 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-30 | NTanzania | 1–1 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-27 | NNigeria | 2–3 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-23 | NUganda | 3–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-07 | AQatar | 3–0 | W | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-04 | NPalestine | 2–2 | D | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-01 | NSyria | 0–1 | L | Arab Cup |
| 2025-11-18 | NBrazil | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 6 | 1-0-5 | 2026 — Loss (0–4) · FIFA World Cup |
| Sweden | 5 | 1-1-3 | 2026 — Loss (1–5) · FIFA World Cup |
| Netherlands | 3 | 0-2-1 | 2009 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 1 matches | 0-1-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Nigeria · World Cup 2018
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1733) and group draw.
Cameroon · World Cup 2014
Exited at the group stage
Cameroon · World Cup 2022
Exited at the group stage
Standard Pass
See all 104 match forecasts
Unlock match probabilities, expected goals, scoreline distributions, and per-player scoring chances across all 104 matches.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
24h money-back, no questions asked·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.