Research · Squad cohesion

Which projected XIs walk in already playing together?

Snapshot · 2026-05-22Model 1.0.0

For each 2026 World Cup nation we take the model's projected starting XI and quantify how much club-level overlap it carries. Three numbers per team: pairwise shared club-season minutes (normalised to 55 × 3000 = 165,000 maximum), a club-concentration score over the XI's most-recent clubs (Herfindahl-Hirschman index), and the share of the XI playing for the three most common clubs. Methodology in /docs/methodology/.

48 teams · fully-resolved XIs: 3 · lookback window: 2 seasons.

Ranked: pairwise club minutes, descending

15 teams with ≥ 7 resolved XI players.

#TeamPairwiseConcentrationTop-3Top clubs
1France5.20%0.14050%AC Milan (2) · Inter (2) · Aston Villa (1)
2Portugal4.99%0.22571%Manchester United (2) · AC Milan (2) · Barcelona (1)
3England4.85%0.12445%Manchester City (2) · Arsenal (2) · Everton (1)
4Argentina4.31%0.18060%Atletico Madrid (3) · Real Betis (2) · Aston Villa (1)
5Netherlands4.18%0.14050%Liverpool (2) · Inter (2) · Brighton (1)
6Germany3.06%0.12445%Bayern Munich (2) · VfB Stuttgart (2) · Barcelona (1)
7Croatia3.00%0.16156%Manchester City (2) · Torino (2) · Fiorentina (1)
8Colombia2.25%0.18457%Crystal Palace (2) · Cagliari (1) · Tottenham (1)
9Belgium1.91%0.14050%Eintracht Frankfurt (2) · Manchester City (2) · Real Madrid (1)
10Spain1.83%0.14050%Manchester City (2) · Barcelona (2) · Athletic Club (1)
11Switzerland1.23%0.10736%Monaco (2) · Borussia Dortmund (1) · Mainz 05 (1)
12Austria1.13%0.12040%Freiburg (2) · Real Madrid (1) · Atalanta,Bologna (1)
13Brazil0.00%0.14343%Chelsea (1) · Paris Saint Germain (1) · Juventus (1)
14Norway0.00%0.14343%Sevilla (1) · Brentford (1) · Borussia Dortmund (1)
15Sweden0.00%0.11133%Aston Villa (1) · Manchester United (1) · Atalanta (1)

Low coverage — read alongside resolved count

33 teams with fewer than 7 resolved XI players.

These teams pull most of their XI from leagues outside our FBref / Understat coverage, so the cohesion numbers below are structurally suppressed — a near-zero pairwise score for an MLS-, Saudi-, or Süper-Lig-heavy XI typically reflects missing data, not genuinely-low club overlap.

#TeamPairwiseConcentrationTop-3Top clubsResolved
1Scotland0.00%0.16750%Arsenal (1) · Everton (1) · Napoli (1)6/11
2Uruguay0.00%0.16750%Sassuolo (1) · Barcelona (1) · Cagliari (1)6/11
3Algeria0.19%0.28080%Lille (2) · Nice (1) · Wolverhampton Wanderers (1)5/11
4DR Congo0.00%0.20060%Marseille (1) · West Ham (1) · Nantes (1)5/11
5Czech Republic2.65%0.28080%West Ham (2) · Torino (1) · Bayer Leverkusen (1)5/11
6Ghana0.00%0.20060%Auxerre (1) · Rennes (1) · Arsenal (1)5/11
7Japan0.00%0.20060%Parma Calcio 1913 (1) · Borussia M.Gladbach (1) · Freiburg (1)5/11
8Senegal0.27%0.28080%Monaco (2) · Lyon (1) · Everton (1)5/11
9United States0.92%0.28080%Fulham (2) · Juventus (1) · AC Milan (1)5/11
10Ivory Coast0.00%0.25075%Angers (1) · Roma (1) · Nottingham Forest (1)4/11
11Egypt0.00%0.25075%Nice (1) · Arsenal (1) · Eintracht Frankfurt (1)4/11
12Morocco0.00%0.25075%Manchester United (1) · Paris Saint Germain (1) · Fiorentina (1)4/11
13Mexico0.00%0.25075%Salernitana (1) · Genoa (1) · Fulham (1)4/11
14Bosnia and Herzegovina0.00%0.333100%St. Pauli (1) · Atalanta (1) · VfB Stuttgart (1)3/11
15South Korea0.00%0.333100%Bayern Munich (1) · Paris Saint Germain (1) · Tottenham (1)3/11
16Tunisia0.00%0.333100%Lorient (1) · Union Berlin (1) · Eintracht Frankfurt (1)3/11
17Australia0.21%1.000100%St. Pauli (2)2/11
18Ecuador0.00%0.500100%Bayer Leverkusen (1) · Chelsea (1)2/11
19Haiti0.00%0.500100%Nantes (1) · Wolverhampton Wanderers (1)2/11
20New Zealand0.00%0.500100%Empoli (1) · Nottingham Forest (1)2/11
21Paraguay0.00%0.500100%Getafe (1) · Torino (1)2/11
22Turkey0.00%0.500100%Atletico Madrid (1) · Inter (1)2/11
23Canada0.00%1.000100%Villarreal (1)1/11
24Cape Verde0.00%1.000100%Villarreal (1)1/11
25Iran0.00%1.000100%Brentford (1)1/11
26South Africa0.00%1.000100%Burnley (1)1/11
27Uzbekistan0.00%1.000100%Roma (1)1/11
28Curaçao0.00%0.0000%0/11
29Iraq0.00%0.0000%0/11
30Jordan0.00%0.0000%0/11
31Saudi Arabia0.00%0.0000%0/11
32Panama0.00%0.0000%0/11
33Qatar0.00%0.0000%0/11

What this is — and isn't

Squad cohesion is a descriptive surface. It captures how much of the projected XI plays together at club level — summed shared minutes for each of the C(11, 2) = 55 pairs, with a join key of (season_end_year, club). Two players who shared a club in different seasons do not count.

This is not a model probability. It does not feed the published tournament-winner numbers. A high cohesion score does not predict a better team — Spain 2022 had an XI heavy in FC Barcelona players and exited early; the descriptive number doesn't close the gap with national-team familiarity, set-piece routines, or manager continuity (which would need lineup-history data we don't have). The number is published for editorial / research use.

The metric inherits the FBref / Understat coverage tilt documented across the rest of the data pipeline: Big-5 leagues are well-covered, while small-league players appear in the ratings table only when they hit Wikipedia top-scorer thresholds. The “low coverage” section above isolates teams where the headline pairwise number is suppressed by missing data rather than by genuine fragmentation.